Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

LOL.  Jax put the ninja on me as well...

I am going to add one more possibility to the 3 above:

4.  The northern stream vortex dominates and NE TN/ SE KY/ SW VA get a decent clipper of 2-3" out of that.  The 18z ICON has a similar solution.

I am sure there are about 10 more that I missed, but those seem to be the common looks on modeling. 

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

That looks like a long wave trough and a clipper on the back side

 

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  Jax put the ninja on me as well...

I am going to add one more possibility to the 3 above:

4.  The northern stream vortex dominates and NE TN/ SE KY/ SW VA get a decent clipper of 2-3" out of that.  The 18z ICON has a similar solution.

I am sure there are about 10 more that I missed, but those seem to be the common looks on modeling. 

coming off the lakes,could enhance it,could be more than showing

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

 

coming off the lakes,could enhance it,could be more than showing

Yeah, will be interesting to see what finally comes of this.  

[John1122]

The GEFS is more in line with the Canadian or ICON. Only one big hitter but quite a few 1-2 inch members vs the desert that is the OP. 

[EastKnox]

6 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

Here is the ideal vort map evolution for east TN, IMO:

 

 

There have been some runs that looked close to that, but too far east, for the most part. But they were in that territory with 960 lows off of Hatteras. 

I could watch that phasing all day long. 

[jaxjagman]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, will be interesting to see what finally comes of this.  

Clippers are what they are here,they clip us,sometimes we get lucky and get a inch but they seem to do better once they start hitting the upslopes

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Clippers are what they are here,they clip us,sometimes we get lucky and get a inch but they seem to do better once they start hitting the upslopes

Most cases when they track right they're 2-4 here but sometimes produce 4-6".

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Most cases when they track right they're 2-4 here but sometimes produce 4-6".

yeah i watch the radar in Mid Tn where we have barely anything it starts to explode as you get to the Cumberland,i believe that

[jaxjagman]

31 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  Jax put the ninja on me as well...

I am going to add one more possibility to the 3 above:

4.  The northern stream vortex dominates and NE TN/ SE KY/ SW VA get a decent clipper of 2-3" out of that.  The 18z ICON has a similar solution.

I am sure there are about 10 more that I missed, but those seem to be the common looks on modeling. 

ill be in knoxville for my sons gymnastics meet Sat.,so let it happen

[PowellVolz]

ill be in knoxville for my sons gymnastics meet Sat.,so let it happen

If you come to Knoxville and we get dumped on, you ain’t going home


.

[Carvers Gap]

Is it just me or did the 18z GEFS just flip the trough in the LR back to the East?  The CMC has a similar look.  12z CFSv2 has a similar look.   Surprised to see the GEFS move.

[John1122]

Canadian is still okay for some of us next weekend. Upslope event on the GFS that probably a little overdone in the lower elevations but if you do well in upslope you will possibly get a few inches. The ICON lost anything impacted.

Anything that does come still looks to come from the northern stream as everything else is suppressed into oblivion. 

[John1122]

The UKIE also doesn't look bad for a general 1 to 3 event from the Eastern Rim to NE Tennessee. But the UKIE has been pretty bad this year so who knows.

Hopefully a lot of us manage to have snow in the air again this week. I still have about 1 to 1.5 inches on the ground in places that face north or east. It's melted off spots that get direct late afternoon and evening sun. There's school tomorrow but busses are on limited routes in some areas because the roads still aren't clear. So for here at least, it's been a pretty awesome January. I actually think we will have some shots at a big storm or two in February. Historically we would in a La Nina/Falling QBO pattern. Plus February likes to snow more than any other month the last decade or so. I don't think we will see anything like last year or February 2015, when it was weeks on end of bitter cold. But that 2015 winter was a similar QBO situation. 

[John1122]

It was marginal but the Euro is slightly better with some small dusting to an inch accumulations for more of the forum area with the clipper Friday. It was very light but better than 12z.

[John1122]

Another big improvement with the 06 GFS. Taps the gulf and gets East Tennessee into some heavy snow.

[John1122]

Very cold behind the storm that run. Highs in the 20s and lows near 0 in snowpack areas.

[John1122]

06z GEFS had a sizable bump on the mean as well. 

[Weathertree2]

Looks like models are still struggling. 0z & 6z of gfs wildly different in long range. I think, for what's worth, the forum has chance for another couple ststem s before spring. Is this one of them? Perhaps.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like we are now exiting the time frame where modeling loses storms which is during the 4-5 day time frame.  All three global operationals now have some sort of storm for the Friday to Saturday timeframe.  If we can hold that look through the 12z suite, I would suggest confidence is growing that cyclogenesis will occur during that time frame along or just off the SE coast.   I would think our best chance for snow is with the northern stream system which amplifies and phases with the southern branch.  We certainly will be pulling for a northwest jog of the coastal low as well.  The 6z GFS is very close to being a very good run for E TN - the Euro not so much but it still has a storm

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The long range 6z GFS had a few more chances towards the end of its run too. It was also trying to rebuild convection in the Western Pac at the end:

 

Strat still looks interesting in the long range:

 

Nothing screams SSW, but there is some warming on the GFS. I'm sure the severe fans would love a SSWE around Feb 23, lol. 
 I'll be honest, normally I'm ready for spring by mid March, but if 2011 style severe is on the table for spring, yes, bring on the strat. warming and spring blocking. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

MRX calling its shot prior to the 6z GFS run....nice.

Friday through Sunday

By the end of the week, focus will turn towards a trough progressing
out of the Great Plains and a developing system in the western Gulf.
The overall consensus has been and continues to be that the system
will take a track similar to a Miller A with uncertainty still
remaining. The latest deterministic GFS/ECMWF keep the associated
dynamics far enough south and out of phase with the trough for only
light snow showers resulting as the trough moves into the area.
Within most global ensemble members and the CMC deterministic
guidance, however, the indication is for perhaps more mentionable
dynamics/forcing in our region that could produce a more widespread
accumulating light snowfall. In any case, 500mb heights and 850mb
temperatures are expected to fall more than 2 standard deviations
below normal by the weekend, likely spelling potential for far below
normal temperatures, potentially colder than what has been seen this
year. As such, the overall message remains the same with low
probability HWO wording utilized based on uncertainty for snow and
increasing likelihood of abnormally cold temperatures and cold wind
chills.

[fountainguy97]

06z gfs honestly looks great for the East Coast.  Someone is going to get buried this weekend.   Gfs is ticking for a quicker phase. A couple more ticks and it gets fun for a lot of the South.

With little blocking any amping is going to pull this north. E TN is on storm watch for this weekend. 

 

notice a lot of GOM members now. 
 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

We were talking yesterday about how the energy got squished and what we wanted to see for a better E TN look, so I pulled the really nice GEFS member 18 (for some reason COD [college of dupage] site  has it as member 19):

 

 

 

I think the above is pretty close to the fence we are swinging for. 

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS has the nor'easter.  With continuity now on the GFS, looks like we have a storm to track this weekend.  Now, we need a westward trend which "I think" could be accomplished with a stronger system.  My guess is that as modeling finaling dials this in(sees it), it could be a very strong storm.   Right now, E TN scores off the northern system and also gets a little bit of a deformation band deal as the storm goes by.  We are probably going to see several variations of this on modeling.  

[Carvers Gap]

As John noted earlier, single digits to  near zero are possible in its wake.  

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z GFS has the nor'easter.  With continuity now on the GFS, looks like we have a storm to track this weekend.  Now, we need a westward trend which "I think" could be accomplished with a stronger system.  My guess is that as modeling finaling dials this in(sees it), it could be a very strong storm.   Right now, E TN scores off the northern system and also gets a little bit of a deformation band deal as the storm goes by.  We are probably going to see several variations of this on modeling.  

We need a quicker phase further southwest.  Looks like what becomes the primary energy is off the east coast and it gets going a little late.  Still a BIG storm and the upper MA to the northeast would get raked.  Just nice to see a big storm showing on the east coast.  Hope the individuals show the potential there for a quicker, further southwest phase.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS was a strong westward jog of the entire system.  The bigger problem is that the STJ has almost a couple of pieces of energy which fire in the GOM.  It is almost like modeling is not quite sure which piece to run up the coast.  I think this "should" be a very consolidated system and less strung out.

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GFS was a strong westward jog of the entire system.  The bigger problem is that the STJ has almost a couple of pieces of energy which fire in the GOM.  It is almost like modeling is not quite sure which piece to run up the coast.  I think this "should" be a very consolidated system and less strung out.

I noticed that.  At 500 it looked much more consolidated.  I was a bit confused to finally switch to the surface and see multiple areas trying to develop low pressure.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, tnweathernut said:

We need a quicker phase further southwest.  Looks like what becomes the primary energy is off the east coast and it gets going a little late.  Still a BIG storm and the upper MA to the northeast would get raked.  Just nice to see a big storm showing on the east coast.  Hope the individuals show the potential there for a quicker, further southwest phase.

Yeah, we need the fulcrum west which would cause the pendulum to start swinging a little further to the west for sure, OR we need the system to spin up earlier and allow the incoming northern stream to pull it back.   Honestly, this looked a bit faster than the previous run...maybe slower allows the system to be stronger and the resulting stronger system pulls itself NW - that is how I think we are likely to score on this.  Not sure how we can get that phase earlier.  We need it crawling like a hurricane, and then it gets a mind of its own.  

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, tnweathernut said:

I noticed that.  At 500 it looked much more consolidated.  I was a bit confused to finally switch to the surface and see multiple areas trying to develop low pressure.

I thought it fired on the front piece and took a few hours for the trailing piece to catch-up.  I "think" a more consolidated system pulls well west of that track.  There is very little blocking this system from coming northward once it rolls out into the the GOM.  We almost need all of the energy to consolidate in the central GOM and then kick as one piece.  That would likely do it.