Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

968mb slp over Hatteras at 177 and stalled out.  Wow.

edit:  966 just after that at 180.

[Jeff H]

Perfect spot for now

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Jeff H said:

Perfect spot for now

That was a MONSTER run to our east and not bad for E TN.  It snowed from Destin to Maine with that run.  It was more impressive than yesterday IMHO.  

[Jeff H]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That was a MONSTER run to our east and not bad for E TN.  It snowed from Destin to Maine with that run.  It was more impressive than yesterday IMHO.  

What do you think about a west trend 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Jeff H said:

What do you think about a west trend 

I would take that run verbatim in terms of low placement and run with it!  LOL.

[Jeff H]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

I would take that run verbatim in terms of low placement and run with it!  LOL.

Thank you 

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Jeff H said:

What do you think about a west trend 

IF it verifies that strong, we may only need that slp track to move just a smidge.  That is hurricane level stuff on that run.  I need to go look at the winds.

[Carvers Gap]

60+mph winds long the coast at 10m.  The tide in Chesapeake Bay would be ripping.  Just one run, but incredibly impressive to see that look now 3x out of 9 runs.  Obviously not set in stone, but the wildest run yet.  Model mayhem for sure.

[Jeff H]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

60+mph winds long the coast at 10m.  The tide in Chesapeake Bay would be ripping.  Just one run, but incredibly impressive to see that look now 3x out of 9 runs.  Obviously not set in stone, but the wildest run yet.  Model mayhem for sure.

Agreed 

[Silas Lang]

40 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z GFS is rolling.  At hour 90, more spacing between the front-running vortex and the main system.  That front running vortex normally sheers out.  Extra spacing may allow that main system to climb in latitude.  Not going to fill up the thread with an off-run PBP, but interesting.  

No, please do. Reel this storm in for us!!! I enjoy the posts. 

Insane looking storm. I would like to get as much as much as the Carolinas, but don't want to get greedy. Honestly I would take a solid 3 inches and cash out for the winter. Had 3 solid coatings this year but all between 1.5 to 2 inches, with various issues (temps, mixing, etc.) Nickel and diming our way to average. Would be nice to get one solid storm for us in the valley. Especially Chattanooga. Y'all need some bad. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

27 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

No, please do. Reel this storm in for us!!! I enjoy the posts. 

Insane looking storm. I would like to get as much as much as the Carolinas, but don't want to get greedy. Honestly I would take a solid 3 inches and cash out for the winter. Had 3 solid coatings this year but all between 1.5 to 2 inches, with various issues (temps, mixing, etc.) Nickel and diming our way to average. Would be nice to get one solid storm for us in the valley. Especially Chattanooga. Y'all need some bad. 

 

LOL.  I ended up doing what I said I wasn't going to do anyway.  The model might be feeding back along the coast, but if that storms slows/stalls it is going to gain strength.  That is the track sequence of a big storm - slp originates in the GOM and the northern stream punches the turbo boost.  

[John1122]

Sadly, no GEFS support for the OP. It's in the mostly dry camp through 186. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I wonder if the amount of active wind energy in the flow right now would help to really amp up something if everything was timed just right? It's like these northern stream darts are being thrown by a pitching machine. If one was caught in a phase, would putting the breaks on like that really ratchet up the energy available for a potential cyclone? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

15 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Sadly, no GEFS support for the OP. It's in the mostly dry camp through 186. 

It's wild to look at the spaghetti-O plots for this GEFS run. There are some that see a storm, but I think every single one of them is OTS or too far north:

The thicker purple line is the OP and the smaller lighter lines are the ensemble members. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Ollie Williams over at southernwx just pointed out that Tomer Burg has GEFS vort maps on his site. I've always wanted to see something like this to see how certain members get to certain solutions that produce storms. So of course I had to giphyfy it. The resolution is so small that it might not be helpful unless you zoom in, but it gives you an idea of how different members see the mid level evolution, all at once:

  

 

I started it at hour 150 and went through about hr 220. I went slowly forwards and backwards and then sped it up. Vort is there in just about every member, and I think this just goes to show how delicate this set up is. 

[Carvers Gap]

Here is what is odd...If this was a rogue run, that is now three rogue runs out of the last nine.  Seems like an off-run would not be repeated without some support at some level.  It is worth noting as well that this type of solution isn’t just showing up on the GFS.  We are seeing this setup across modeling along with hit or miss big runs.  I tend to think models might be honing-in on a big storm.   The 12z Euro had a nice storm right after the one the GFS has had.  The ingredients are there for a big storm.  Whether it happens, no idea.  Obviously, nothing is a certainty at this range.

[Bigbald]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Here is what is odd...If this was a rogue run, that is now three rogue runs out of the last nine.  Seems like an off-run would not be repeated without some support at some level.  It is worth noting as well that this type of solution isn’t just showing up on the GFS.  We are seeing this setup across modeling along with hit or miss big runs.  I tend to think models might be honing-in on a big storm.   The 12z Euro had a nice storm right after the one the GFS has had.  The ingredients are there for a big storm.  Whether it happens, no idea.  Obviously, nothing is a certainty at this range.

That, and the fact that all 3 models jumped on that one 12z run from friday.  I kind of wondered if models were latching on to the big dog that sometimes happens far out.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z EPS:

 

Not that this hasn't been said 1000 times at this point, but not a bad look at this range for H5, precip., and temps. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here is the mean vort map:

[John1122]

0z modeling is back in the crapper. If the Euro is correct we will have fire danger possible by the end of the run. 0 precip over 95 percent of the forum area through D10. Huge warm up vs 12z too. Basically 30 degrees warmer by the end of the run. Crazy swings on modeling right now. Usually a pattern reshuffle is coming when that happens. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Maybe we need to start a betting pool for which runs will show a big east coast storm and which won't over the next few days. 

 

6z GFS looked a little better than 0z, but not nearly what we saw at 18z yesterday. 6z Euro looked like it might be a little better than 0z , but that's only based on extrapolating 500 mb vort maps past hour 90. I'm basically ready fro Friday just so we can see what happens. 

 

This next weekend chances notwithstanding, I think we need a reshuffle if we want better chances at a storm. There is just so much wind in the mid and upper levels in the eastern CONUS, that even when we get a nice southern stream shortwave (like this Tuesday) it gets sheared apart when it gets to the southeast. I kinda wish the MJO signal would just go ahead, and come out of the COD in the Maritime Continent, and start the same trek through 4/5/6 that it took in December. Yeah, that would make things less favorable for a while, but hopefully we could get it back to 7/8/1 by late February. But it's just dicking around in the COD for the next 10 - 15 days as though the tropical convection zones were on Oprah: "you get convection, and you get some convection, you all get convection!!" 

The BOM evolution is just bizzaro, but I would take it:

It sees the main signal going backwards through 6->5->4->3->2->1->8 by 20 February, but all in the COD. 

 

What happened to our December -NAO? Do we just have waayyyy too much motion in the N. Hemisphere to get one of those now? 

GFS and EPS still show some arctic blocking, the -AO y'all were talking about recently, so will be interesting to see how that plays out towards mid February. 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Both the 0z CMC and 6z GFS have the storm in almost the same spot they have had it for days, just weaker.  The phase is different with almost each run.  Modeling has trended away from a stronger phase of late, but let's see where this goes during the next couple of days.  We are kind of at the point where modeling loses storms only to regain that look 4-5 days out.  But with a slp reflection in the near the exact place as found yesterday, the potential still exists for a significant storm along the EC.  The GDPS ensemble is probably most aggressive as it very close mimics some of the stronger operational runs from the past two days.  The biggest trend is a later phase.  We need an earlier phase.  

For NE TN, SE KY, and SW VA...the northern stream system is on most modeling.  This could potentially result in 1-3" of snow over the area, even the valleys.  With that strong of an impulse in the northern stream....that alone bears some watching.  I also wouldn't rule out 1-2 threats immediately after the weekend system.  As John notes, a pattern shake-up is plausible/ highly likely as the trough retrogrades into the West.  At that point, we will likely see some nice February days with intermittent cold as it is very likely the cold will push at times with that type of pattern.  Still, we have gotten much more winter than I would have envisioned for this winter.  

Plus, the Vols got a hard fought and much needed win last night on the hard court.

[Mr. Kevin]

I've been the unlucky one to only get maybe an inch of snow. If the pna isnt on roids, some may have the front come close and stall, but that's a long ways out. January was cold but winter weather was non existent unfortunately for my area

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like the N stream shortwave over Canada is running a little faster on the 12z GFS wrt to next weekend possible storm. Might catch the southern stream s/w a bit quicker on this run

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Actually I think was looking at the southern s/w thinking that was part of the storm, it may have been on a few runs ago, but I guess it's the n.stream piece over UT and CO at hour 99 I should be watching. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The northern shortwave is nearly 500 miles west of 6z, lol. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Look how much further west it is:

at this hour, it looks like it is headed for the Gulf at a good angle. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The phase between the second shortwave and the one above, happens almost overhead east TN. 

[PowellVolz]

Look how much further west it is:

at this hour, it looks like it is headed for the Gulf at a good angle. 
 

Unbelievable


.

[Silas Lang]

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Look how much further west it is:

at this hour, it looks like it is headed for the Gulf at a good angle. 

 

Yeah, looked similar to the 18z. 

As it stands, some snow showers/flurries look to be on the menu for Friday. 

We need the low to start popping in the gulf to get decent snow, right? As I understood it, we didn't really get a whole lot off the huge coastal. Our potential snow comes from more of the lead up.