Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Reb]

Roads were white on 66 in Kodak a few min ago 

[Carvers Gap]

@Holston_River_Rambler, take a look at the trend of the system this evening and tonight since the Jan 19th 12z run of the GFS.  Center it on hour 24 of the 6z run this morning.  It is almost comical how far it has moved northwest.  It has moved from a coastal ice storm to a decent even for almost all of North Carolina.

[Weathertree2]

No  one please take  this post the wrong way but I though there was a specific observation string or thread;  I like reading the observations but when they are intermingled  with posts  regarding long range pattern stuff it just gets messy.

[Carvers Gap]

28 minutes ago, Reb said:

Roads were white on 66 in Kodak a few min ago 

That is wild.  Wonder if it is just squeezing out moisture from yesterday due to orographic lift or if there is some connection to the incoming storm? The 6z RGEM sneaks some precip into the western foothills this evening.  

[Carvers Gap]

33 minutes ago, Reb said:

Roads were white on 66 in Kodak a few min ago 

Just went and checked some higher res modeling....Interestingly, the WRF-ARW and 3K NAM have some super light precip hanging around in your area this morning.  Super faint on the modeling.  Looks like it is just yesterday's system moving out.  Very cool though!!!  Congratulations on the bonus snow.

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the 6z 3k NAM at hour 3....holds there throughout much of the morning and early afternoon.

[bearman]

Heavy snow shower near bulls Gap.  That is putting down some snow.

[PowellVolz]

Sevier Co is always stealing all our fun.




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[PowellVolz]

Gatlinburg Summit web cam is always pointing at Mt Leconte

https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/gatlinburg-summit/


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[Jed33]

5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Sevier Co is always stealing all our fun.




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Well it was moving NE but it sank SE and decided to pay a visit to Dolly. And that Bulls Gap snow shower was that legit? I mean it’s like it went poof as soon as it started.

 

[PowellVolz]

Well it was moving NE but it sank SE and decided to pay a visit to Dolly. And that Bulls Gap snow shower was that legit? I mean it’s like it went poof as soon as it started.
 

That’s a great question… anyone have thoughts on this?

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[PowellVolz]

MRX HWO…

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A storm system will move across the Gulf coast states and spread
precipitation into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians
Tuesday and Tuesday night. A wintry mix of snow, sleet and rain is
expected with light snow accumulations possible, mainly across the
higher elevations. There is a lot of uncertainty on the exact path
and strength of this system. Please stay tuned to further weather
updates


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[fountainguy97]

I won't be shocked to continue to see light precip over Eastern TN through the day. Especially with this look in the mid levels.  As the storm progresses we may actually get an hour or two of semi-decent returns over the eastern counties bordering NC as the storm begins to crank.

 

This was so close to a much larger event if that shortwave would tilt negative. 

[Reb]

Still snowing in Seymour, everything is completely white at my house

[Greyhound]

That’s a great question… anyone have thoughts on this?




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What version of RadarScope do you have? Pro 1? Asking b/c of the longer loops in the super res options. I can only get the longer loops in the lower resolutions

[PowellVolz]

I have their tier 2 package, the one that has all the options.

@Greyhound
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[fountainguy97]

3 hours ago, bearman said:

Heavy snow shower near bulls Gap.  That is putting down some snow.

 

3 hours ago, Jed33 said:

Well it was moving NE but it sank SE and decided to pay a visit to Dolly. And that Bulls Gap snow shower was that legit? I mean it’s like it went poof as soon as it started.

 

I am pretty sure the Bulls Gap returns were not convection but an animal.   I've noticed the classic "ring" around this time in that exact area typical of insects/birds.

(Another benefit of tier 2 RadarScope. Archive and my own custom color tables)

 

The CC also indicates extreme differences in size of objects. Although this forum isn't letting me upload it.

[fountainguy97]

Here it is. 
 

[Carvers Gap]

News is a little slow today.  The GFS still has the marginal event Tuesday.  However, around 150, it is showing some promise regarding next weekend.  Let's see where it goes.

[Carvers Gap]

The ICON picked-up on this look at 12z as well.  It may not phase on this run.  But there is a piece of the northern stream and southern stream which are interacting a bit.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS may or may not get there around 160, but that is an entirely different look from that model than compared to 6z.  

[Carvers Gap]

Not sure how this works out at the surface, but the northern stream and the southern stream are pretty much phased by 174

[Carvers Gap]

Yep.  The 12z GFS is a good look for next weekend.  

[Carvers Gap]

That is a whopper of a storm.  966 slp at 204 over the South Carolina beaches.  That would surely be big for E TN.  That is a great phase.

[Bigbald]

Yeah this 12z gfs run is going to be a beaut and front loaded (under 250 hrs).

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Bigbald said:

Yeah this 12z gfs run is going to be a beaut and front loaded (under 250 hrs).

And that storm gets cut off.  It is going nowhere.  It is stalled out.

[Weathertree2]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And that storm gets cut off.  It is going nowhere.  It is stalled out.

That is an insane amount of snow  lol  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Weathertree2 said:

That is an insane amount of snow  lol  

LOL.  Pretty epic run and I don't say that lightly.  No idea if that stays on modeling, but the ICON hinted at this on its 12z run.  Modeling has been wanting to churn up a big storm between Tuesday and next weekend...but lately has been leaning towards a weekend event.  That storm is on the map so long that it phases with with the next system which is like 2-3 days behind it.  Not often we get to see that type of run.  Hope it comes back on future runs needless to say!

[Carvers Gap]

For posterity.  Digital Winter Storm "Mo" which is short for molasses - cause it wa moving that slow.  There was a similar storm on modeling the other day which hammered eastern North Carolina.  This is a bit west of that run.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC has a very similar storm but phases with the piece of energy which is following.