Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Happy hour GFS still has the storm, but it is stronger and a bit further north. There is a solid band of snow running from Memphis to Lexington. Springfield, TN is the big winner with 16.6 inches on the 18z. 

 

[CG2]

Not surprising to see that storm lift north and west.  Wouldn't surprise me if it became a cutter.  The 12z GFS was off its rocker.  The 18z GFS has a run (so far) which is much more in line with other modeling.  Trough comes eastward this time instead of meandering of the coast of California.   Let's see how this run looks with that seemingly corrected(again, who knows, earlier runs may have been right).

[Mr. Kevin]

1 minute ago, CG2 said:

Not surprising to see that storm lift north and west.  Wouldn't surprise me if it became a cutter.  The 12z GFS was off its rocker.  The 18z GFS has a run (so far) which is much more in line with other modeling.  Trough comes eastward this time instead of meandering of the coast of California.   Let's see how this run looks with that seemingly corrected(again, who knows, earlier runs may have been right).

The euro has my area mid 20s at noon Sunday where gfs has low 40s. A little off someone is

[CG2]

And there it is at 222, the entire trough comes eastward and settles nicely into the middle of the country where a ridge was at 12z.....a complete and total flip over the United States of what it had at 12z.  Replace troughs with ridges and ridges with troughs.

[CG2]

Just now, Mr. Kevin said:

The euro has my area mid 20s at noon Sunday where gfs has low 40s. A little off someone is

18z GFS??  

[Mr. Kevin]

Just now, CG2 said:

18z GFS??  

Yep. Weird to me

[CG2]

So, check this out.  This is the 12z GFS and the 18z GFS at 222....

[CG2]

This is the wx pattern over our side of the hemisphere at 240/246.  Now, for sure modeling is granted a ton of wiggle room at this range as so many things can influence them.  But take a look at the difference that is made when the trough off California is not pumped by the AH.  This falls more in line with the 12z EPS. 12z GFS at the top and 18z at the bottom.  Notice what happens when the AH is gone and that trough off California moves inland.  EPO ridge pops, and we don't even have a -NAO at this point.

 

[CG2]

At this point (246), the entire lobe of cold should be jettisoned southeastward into the US.  It may or may not be right, but this is more in line with other global modeling AND in line with its own MJO.

[AMZ8990]

21 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Happy hour GFS still has the storm, but it is stronger and a bit further north. There is a solid band of snow running from Memphis to Lexington. Springfield, TN is the big winner with 16.6 inches on the 18z. 

 

That’s the kind of stuff I dream about, lol.  I’m about 35 miles southwest of that 11.6.  Looks like I’d be in the sweet spot.  If I got a foot of snow me and my dogs would be running around the neighborhood looking like Harrison Ford in “The Call of the wild”..... lmao

[CG2]

Don't look now, but the 18z has not one but two storms for west TN.  And then the cold hammer drops.  

[Mr. Kevin]

12gfs had 29 at 12noon sunday,and 41 at 12noon Sunday on 18zgfs. Euro had mid 20s at same timeframe 

[CG2]

21 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Yep. Weird to me

At least we are tracking cold and snow for your region.  Could be worse.  The good/bad thing is that this is going to shift all over the place.  If modeling today is true, I think there is the possibility for one storm in the western forum area and another further east(possible second cold front) as that type of boundary would likely spawn a heckuva snowstorm.  I think the GOM is pretty warm right now.  So an Arctic boundary hitting the GOM is fireworks.  

[Mr. Kevin]

Just now, CG2 said:

At least we are tracking cold and snow for your region.  Could be worse.  The good/bad thing is that this is going to shift all over the place.  If modeling today is true, I think there is the possibility for one storm in the western forum area and another further east as that type of boundary would likely spawn a heckuva snowstorm.  I think the GOM is pretty warm right now.  So an Arctic boundary hitting the GOM is fireworks.  

Just a big temperature gradient from models 

[CG2]

3 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

12gfs had 29 at 12noon sunday,and 41 at 12noon Sunday on 18zgfs. Euro had mid 20s at same timeframe 

At this range, completely understandable.  They can differ that much even 48 hours out.  I mean, it could be gone on the next run with so much variability right now.  You are in the cone at least.

[CG2]

Just for fun, check out the EPO/PNA ridge at 318.....nearly reaches the NP.

[CG2]

5 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Just a big temperature gradient from models 

Agree.  There could be some wild temperature gradients with these cold fronts modeled.  I am not saying the GFS is right (models which flip like that could flip back during the next run), but verbatim that amount of cold would make us wish for at least a shadow of a SER in order to avoid a suppressed storm pattern.

[Mr. Kevin]

Just now, CG2 said:

Agree.  There could be some wild temperature gradients with these cold fronts modeled.  I am not saying the GFS is right (models which flip like that could flip back during the next run), but verbatim that amount of cold would make us wish for at least a shadow of a SER in order to avoid a suppressed storm pattern.

That's why I like those overrunning patterns with sleet and ice involved. Stalled front

[John1122]

We are gonna be in model madness for a while. Hopefully the Sunday into Monday event works out for at least some of us. It's often the case the last few pattern changes that models show a good snow event that doesn't quite work but the next system usually does after the cold gets properly sampled. I believe that has happened twice in the last 5 years. 

[CG2]

5 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

That's why I like those overrunning patterns with sleet and ice involved. Stalled front

Those are definitely the best.  That said, getting an over-running pattern in these dry conditions is tough - dry IMBY.  Now, tomorrow, we may experience flooding.  Extremes are what we are seeing on modeling right now.  I can't begin to state just how tough it is for a computer model to forecast extreme patterns correctly.

[Carvers Gap]

Will be interesting to see where modeling goes tomorrow.  Need to see a day or two more of this before I would buy what they were cooking today - huge EPO/PNA ridge, multiple Arctic fronts, prolonged cold/snowy pattern.  I remember a few years back where we had a great looking pattern headed into Jan on modeling....then the models missed a strat split(which occurred) and modeling went sideways.

[Carvers Gap]

18z GEFS looks fantastic.  Has the cold shot on Jan 9/10.  Two trackable windows right now.  No assurances, but better than watching the big red ball over Dutch Harbor.  

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

That's why I like those overrunning patterns with sleet and ice involved. Stalled front

Some of the biggest Snowfalls I've seen were from overrunning events.

[John1122]

GFS is back south and more in line with the Euro. Pretty good run from Memphis to Tri on the first snow event. 

[Spartman]

Interesting tweet from Dr. Simon Lee regarding about a potential Alaskan Ridge around the middle third of this upcoming January:

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The late overnight OP runs seem to be trending towards more of a washed out, positively tilted wave in a fast flow for the late weekend critter:

GFS trend through 6z today:

 

Euro trend through 0z last night:

 

Luckily the ensembles still have a pretty wide spread of possible solutions, so its not over, yet:

 

 

 

I suspect we get at least one good digital snow NAMing or SREF'ing out of this one. 

Although the Euro ensembles are stingy wrt to snow, the stubborn EPS RMM plot

 

 

 

finally

 

 

 

at long last 

 

 

 

wait for it

 

 

 

wait a little longer

 

 

ok

 

 

 

 

next jump, I promise

 

 

 

 

 

just kidding

 

 

 

ok ok, 

made it to 8:

 

Look, I know it is just a complicated set of variables mapped onto a plot, and that BOM's ensembles and some of the North American ones had been showing that for a while, but they kept slowing it down, so maybe we are finally going to get something the stubborn, but ultimately more accurate EPS members are seeing to reshuffle the nasty Pac. 

Our pesky TC near Darwin is fin ally on the move, but there still is to much lift near Darwin to substantially raise the barometric pressure there:

To me, that satellite image has RMM 6/7 border written all over it. 

 

Here are the overnight long range ensembles (EPS, GEPS, and finally GEFS), giphified:

 

Looks like in the semi medium range, they all like that ridge north of Alaska now. 

 

[Mr Bob]

I get all my long range info from Carver these days. I don't even have to look at the models much any more! But I do keep up on a daily basis and just patiently wait for day 7-10 to move into the day 3-5 range...very patiently. 

[Carvers Gap]

40 minutes ago, Mr Bob said:

I get all my long range info from Carver these days. I don't even have to look at the models much any more! But I do keep up on a daily basis and just patiently wait for day 7-10 to move into the day 3-5 range...very patiently. 

My lights are still on, so I know that isn't true!  LOL.  

[Carvers Gap]

LR looks good overnight, more of a status quo when compared to modeling yesterday.  Still not sure I trust the MJO, but looks good.  Question will be does it keep progressing into one and two or loop back into 6 and then start the process over again?   @jaxjagmanmentioned (I think...correct me if I am wrong, Jax) that the waters in the equatorial regions of the western Pacific are warming from Nina levels.  Think I read that the subsurface was very warm.  That may well allow the MJO to progress into phases 8-1 much easier.

The storm next weekend has always been a bit of a push for MBY.  Front is too strong, and it is OTS.  Front is too weak and cuts west.  We really need the front to slow down once it exits our region and drag the trailing front into the GOM.  The GFS was getting by with that solution, because it was likely (and possibly erroneously) modeling a weaker cold front.  That allowed the front to wash out and essentially stall.  Flow backed just enough to allow for a storm.  Now, that front is blasting through and it is cold chasing rain.  Still, I wouldn't give up on that window just yet.  Not uncommon for storms to be lost in this time frame.  Agree with @John1122 that it is often a sequence of storms which eventually gives us a shot.  

I think we are entering a pattern where the cold loads out West and surges eastward.    How long that lasts?  TBD.  Again, when severe is seen in the valley, it is not uncommon to see a cold/stormy pattern follow a couple of weeks later.  

[Carvers Gap]

If you need a snow fix this morning, here is a link to Star Valley Weather.  Star Valley is in western WY.  The writer of that blog is a veteran met who spent some time in Norman.  I don't know him, but stumbled across this great site a few years ago.  Just click the weather cameras tab.  You will see cameras for many places in that region.  Two weeks ago, the ground was brown there which is very unusual.  

https://www.starvalleyweather.com