Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[PowellVolz]

A little wrap around moisture in the valley


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[Reb]

Radar looks to be filling in a bit with light snow showers in the valley and someone has pingd snow in west Knoxville 

 

powell beat me to it

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Players are still on the field for the big phased bomb from the 12z GFS. Shortwave in the southwest ejects out about 48 hours too quickly this time so a swing and a miss:

[Knoxtron]

We've got an official flizzard ongoing near TYS 

 

Ground/drive instantly lightly coated

[PowellVolz]

26° up here at my house and all the salt has been washed off.


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[PowellVolz]

JKL radar doesn’t look bad if downsloping doesn’t kill it.


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[Jed33]

37 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

A little wrap around moisture in the valley


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That band means business! It turned everything white in a hurry here!

[TellicoWx]

Radar isn't picking it up, but have a moderate snow shower going here in Madisonville 

[ShawnEastTN]

A little wrap around moisture in the valley


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Yep some dry flurries my way here and there in the wind. Trapped low level moisture falling temp squeezing it out.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[TellicoWx]

Picked up a quick dusting on elevated surfaces

[RawCrabMeat]

Nice dusting here a few bigger flakes even

[brewman22001]

This has given us here in Lenoir City a light dusting.  

[Carvers Gap]

Some bonus snow today for folks....

18z GFS continues to advertise a pattern with some opportunities.  The 12z CMC looked ok as well.  Looks like it wold have some clipper opportunities after a week of dry weather.  Again, I think as this pattern relaxes later next week, we are going to see some opportunities.....and then February will be cutter city w/ a few that take the low road.

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro Weeklies this evening FTR didn't look torchy.  Looked cold until roughly Feb 2nd.  Then it is kind of off and on warmth after that.  Feb looks weakly base warm with some cold extrusions.  

[PowellVolz]

Going to be some black ice issues. Snow isn’t heavy enough to stick on black tops so it’s melting on contact.


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[PowellVolz]

At Aubrey’s in Powell. A heavier band was slow to move through here and laid down about 1/4”. Roads are very wet at 27°. Going to be a problem later.


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[fountainguy97]

Another dusting tonight. Brings my year up to 11.6".  Exactly tying my snow through January of last winter so far. My Erwin TN winter archive is now up to 3 winters! 
 

data is sparse over here so I have to do it myself. Lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Little bit of a leeside low in Upstate SC:

 

Wonder is that is helping enhance this a bit AND I wonder if that means y'all will get another one of these tomorrow evening as the next shortwave rolls through? 

 

 

[PowellVolz]

Someone explain how this happens?

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[John1122]

8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Someone explain how this happens?


 

 

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The DGZ is really low and the moisture is shallow and close to the ground as well. The crystals don't have time to form into a flake before they hit the ground. They form when the temperature is around 23 degrees a few hundred feet above feet surface. 

[Wintersnow888]

6 hours ago, Shocker0 said:

Dusting in Crossville from the snow early this morning. Not much but we weren't supposed to get anything anyway so it's better than nothing.

 

I drove down to town and it's amazing how much more we got than they did in Crossville proper....that extra elevation and being far enough NW really helps us out here. Wondering if being closer to the edge of the plateau helps also?

[PowellVolz]

I drove down to town and it's amazing how much more we got than they did in Crossville proper....that extra elevation and being far enough NW really helps us out here. Wondering if being closer to the edge of the plateau helps also?

A little extra lift never hurts.


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[Shocker0]

1 hour ago, Wintersnow888 said:

I drove down to town and it's amazing how much more we got than they did in Crossville proper....that extra elevation and being far enough NW really helps us out here. Wondering if being closer to the edge of the plateau helps also?

I think being on the edge helps, because Monterey and Jamestown are lower elevation than us but right on the edge of the Plateau and also get a lot of snow. Where Crossville proper is more in the middle of the Plateau. Eastern areas of the plateau don't seem to get as much snow even if they have higher elevation than us so I think it tapers off as it gets closer to Rockwood and areas like that usually. 

I went to town this morning also and it was pretty much clear after 3-4 miles on the interstate. This system also seemed to stay kinda north with the snow so I didn't expect anything really down there but in years where we get a lot of NW Flow events it seems like you really notice a big difference in accumulation in the above areas compared to in town or areas on the east side of the Plateau. Maybe someone in here can explain it better than me but yes, the Western Plateau seems to always do well compared to the Eastern except in certain times when a storm tracks over the southern areas more.

[PowellVolz]

Snowshoe WVa Resort Village. Snowing @ 7°




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[TellicoWx]

Roads here are iced over

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Caveat, this post is aimed at the very end of the long range right now. 

As we start to transition back to a less favorable pattern in the long range, I thought I'd look at ye olden strat. Lots of run-to-run variability (that's code for I looked at two runs and am too lazy to dig deeper right now). There're the sort of disruptions we'd expect with the less favorable tropical forcing:

50mb:

 

 

Nothing though that looks much different than it looked in the long rage in December. 

 

Indian Ocean convection looking healthy. I looked at it over the past 3 weeks (not the below gif) and there has definitely been a tendency for the convection over tropical Africa to move offshore in the past week, so I think it probably is the expected MJO wave started up again in its treck across the eastern hemisphere's tropics. 

Even though the RMMs have us in the COD, I suspect that is because there are competing areas of convection. Still some in the Maritime Continent into the western Pac. 

When and if that Indian Ocean wave propagates to the Maritime Continent, we probably torch, but hopefully we can avoid the heavy rains that El Nino baby's CFS plots from a few days ago showed. 

 

One point of interest that I noticed Raindancewx pointed out in one of the volcano threads, was that the volcano shook up the waters around Tonga and cooled them off:

That little cooler area north of New Zealand. I've noticed that that area is a prime region for TC development when the MJO gets to phase 7, so it wil; be interesting to see how and if that changes anything when the MJO gets there again in late February. 

[TellicoWx]

Very light freezing drizzle here...really messing up roads. Car flipped on the Hwy 411 bridge in Vonore

[Carvers Gap]

1. Ensemble modeling overnight actually improved in the LR - colder and less SER on both the 0z CMCand 0z GFS. We may be able to carry seasonal or even BN temps through the first week of February now. For now the GFS carries the most weight for me.   IF that is the new pattern on both of those models, we can work with that.

2. Of note, the system that trended SE for tomorrow...the precip shield now makes into the first layer of E TN counties.  Shouldn't be much, but wouldn't be surprised to see snow in the air in both the mountains and maybe in the valleys just next to the mountains.  While that shouldn't affect most of us, it does show that modeling was likely in error with the far envelope of eastern solutions.  Something to tuck away and remember for the next storm.  That storm is likely to affect much more of NC than shown a couple of days ago.  The NW trend is legit.

3. MRX has released a statement or next Monday night into Tuesday....

For late Monday night through Tuesday night, deterministic models
from the GFS and ECMWF are coming in closer agreement in phasing a
little better with a northern stream jet moving across the mid-
Atlantic states and a southern stream system moving across the Gulf
coast states. The surface low remains fairly far south across the
northern Gulf. However, enough phasing of the two systems to spread
light precipitation into the region.

GEFS and ECMWF Ensemble are in agreement with around 0.25 inch or
less of QPF for this event especially south and eastern areas.
Ensembles also show a light snowfall across much of the region,
especially for the higher elevations.

The main features of the system that will be watched closely are the
following:

1) How much phasing occurs between the northern and southern stream
energy.  The more phasing the greater the QPF and potential of
heavier snowfall amounts, especially higher elevations.

2) Vertical temperature profile/Top-Down precipitation type.
Currently, the deterministic models hang onto a boundary layer warm
nose limiting snowfall in the valley.

3) Strength of the arctic high building into the plain states.

Will add the potential of wintry mix/snowfall within the HWO.

For Wednesday and Thursday, surface ridging builds back into the
Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians with dry conditions.

[PowellVolz]

We have a flizzard downtown. Weird that it didn’t move in, it just developed




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[Jed33]

4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

We have a flizzard downtown. Weird that it didn’t move in, it just developed

This looks very similar to how that band just formed out of nowhere yesterday afternoon. Direction is a little different-that one moved S/SW and this one seems to be slowly creeping NE going to be interesting to see where it goes.
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