Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS is an example of where the retrograding pattern backs those previous OTS tracks into the eastern seaboard.   That is a MONSTER of a storm.  

[Carvers Gap]

13 minutes ago, Weathertree2 said:

That is really really far to the South; I would have expected to see some extreme cold here with it that far South but it is not really

 

Yeah, that is a phaser for sure.  Tampa to NYC w/ a northern stream injection of energy and BOOM!

[PowellVolz]

Looks like the 12z GFS has something to track shortly after 100.  Doesn't look hugely significant at the moment, but is a good example of how quickly models can pivot.

What a difference a week makes. Feels like that window is closing fast but not shut.


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[Carvers Gap]

And man, it just stalls off the coast.  Whew!

This is why I don't trust the dry looks on modeling.  The MJO does not support a completely suppressed pattern.  No idea if that is right or even close to it...but that is a really big storm.  No way modeling has that nailed down at 200 hours.  Could be gone on the next run.  That said, modeling is from time-to-time seeing coastal genesis of big lows.  Sure, we could get caught between the northern stream sliding stuff to our north and the STJ sliding stuff below us.  BUT, if those two every sync...that run is an example of what could happen.  

Sot, that is two storms next week to watch.  One is mid-week and has a marginal  temp profile.  It actually looks good on WxBell's stuff.  Then, there is the weekend storm potential after that.

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

What a difference a week makes. Feels like that window is closing fast but not shut.


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Looks like two systems to track loosely next week.  That second window(later next weekend) looks like it has more promise.  I wouldn't say closing fast, but it is closing.   We are about three weeks into this current pattern.  Max of three weeks left though I think more likely two weeks.  The transition out of this pattern is where I think we can score.  

[Carvers Gap]

This is a pretty nice 12z GFS run.  What the others were not...this one is.

[Weathertree2]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

This is a pretty nice 12z GFS run.  What the others were not...this one is.

What am I missing these seem to be modeled  south of us.  Are we expecting the NW jog?

[tnweathernut]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And man, it just stalls off the coast.  Whew!

This is why I don't trust the dry looks on modeling.  The MJO does not support a completely suppressed pattern.  No idea if that is right or even close to it...but that is a really big storm.  No way modeling has that nailed down at 200 hours.  Could be gone on the next run.  That said, modeling is from time-to-time seeing coastal genesis of big lows.  Sure, we could get caught between the northern stream sliding stuff to our north and the STJ sliding stuff below us.  BUT, if those two every sync...that run is an example of what could happen.  

Sot, that is two storms next week to watch.  One is mid-week and has a marginal  temp profile.  It actually looks good on WxBell's stuff.  Then, there is the weekend storm potential after that.

Lows around the lakes are no bueno and the best way to wreck marginal thermals.  I feel like it's only showing snow because of the time of arrival in the early AM hours.  That said, it's nice to see blue on the map.

And the follow up bomb is pretty.  We might have to go find people in eastern NC if that happened.  lol

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Weathertree2 said:

What am I missing these seem to be modeled  south of us.  Are we expecting the NW jog?

We want tracks south of us.  Yes.  The coastal blizzard modeled for next weekend would likely rake eastern portions of the forum area just verbatim to that run. That said, that look will certainly change.  Getting systems below us, and northern stream energy syncing on some model runs is about all we can ask for at this range.

[Weathertree2]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

We want tracks south of us.  Yes.  The coastal blizzard modeled for next weekend would likely rake eastern portions of the forum area just verbatim to that run. That said, that look will certainly change.  Getting systems below us, and northern stream energy syncing on some model runs is about all we can ask for at this range.

True enough it will change thanks!

[Silas Lang]

3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Lows around the lakes are no bueno and the best way to wreck marginal thermals.  I feel like it's only showing snow because of the time of arrival in the early AM hours.  That said, it's nice to see blue on the map.

And the follow up bomb is pretty.  We might have to go find people in eastern NC if that happened.  lol

The Canadian is a little closer than the GFS; the Northern low is more on the way out east with high pressure close, while the GFS has it north of the Gulf low. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, tnweathernut said:

Lows around the lakes are no bueno and the best way to wreck marginal thermals.  I feel like it's only showing snow because of the time of arrival in the early AM hours.  That said, it's nice to see blue on the map.

And the follow up bomb is pretty.  We might have to go find people in eastern NC if that happened.  lol

I kind of took that run to be the model struggling to deal with two pieces of energy interacting.  What I like is seeing northern stream energy and southern stream energy in sync, even if they miss in latitude.  The next two that slide across seem to connect.  It may well be that the Wednesday set-up helped set the stage for that second storm.

[Carvers Gap]

The Canadian looks like (by it not having the first system on Weds) it is going to press the cold front too far south for anything of significance following that Weds miss.  It sounds weird, but those two systems washing out the thermals almost causes the front to stall just enough for cyclogenesis to occur on the GFS.  Press that boundary too far, and any ensuing storm is going to the fishes.

[Carvers Gap]

Then again, the 12z CMC is sliding that high out quickly on Thursday.  It may allow a storm to lift northward.  I may be wrong on that.

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

The Canadian is a little closer than the GFS; the low is more on the way out east with high pressure on the way, while the GFS has it north of the other low. 

Canadian vaporizes a nice piece of energy in the southern branch. From closed to pretty much gone in less than 24 hours.  Will need to watch this one if we have a closed piece of energy at 500 in central Texas.

[Carvers Gap]

12z CMC does seem to find the look next weekend, but further eastward.  At this range(8-9 days), I am not even worried about the details.  Looks like a couple of systems to track at this point with the weekender, being the best shot for those in E TN who haven't had as much snow this winter.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS, just looking a bit more closely at Wednesday is a near miss at the surface.  The reason it snows north of I-40(even with the pesky low in the Lakes) is because a shadow of a slp slips along northeastward through the Carolinas.  That keeps the thermal profile in place.  Then, it almost phases after that IMHO.

[PowellVolz]

Lows around the lakes are no bueno and the best way to wreck marginal thermals.  I feel like it's only showing snow because of the time of arrival in the early AM hours.  That said, it's nice to see blue on the map.
And the follow up bomb is pretty.  We might have to go find people in eastern NC if that happened.  lol

We delt with that several years ago. A Low was parked over Michigan the whole winter. Was one of the worst winters I can remember and that’s saying something.


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[Carvers Gap]

Versus having a low in the Lakes fouling thermals, it is more of an interaction between two jet streams on Wednesday.  The CMC misses on that which causes the whiff.  Right now with the northern stream dropping energy along and just north of energy from the STJ...basically like striking a match next to gas fumes....may or may not pop, but the potential is there. 

That interaction on the GFS flattens the ensuing front, and doesn't allow the trough to dig.  That allows the mega phase after....

 

[Carvers Gap]

Wednesday's system is marginal, but we could steal one there.  The weekend storm after is what interests me.  

[Carvers Gap]

Yeah, that winter where that low seemed parked in the Lakes was terrible.  Wrecked one system after another....

That said, this is more of an interaction (Wednesday) between the northern jet and the STJ.  IMHO, that run wasn't a true disruptive low in the Lakes, but more of a weak attempt at a phase.  They are just a bit too far apart to phase.  But the interaction causes a weak low to lift through the Carolinas.  That keeps the thermals in check.  It isn't so much a slp just sitting there causing a mess, but two pieces of energy which hit the bottom of the pendulum at the same time.  It is that interaction that pulls moisture northward.  Without the northern stream feature, there is very little precip at all.  

As noted before, the jets appear to be in decent sync from Wednesday to Saturday of next week.  Storm signal on that GFS run and to some extent the CMC run.

[Shocker0]

Dusting in Crossville from the snow early this morning. Not much but we weren't supposed to get anything anyway so it's better than nothing.

 

[PowellVolz]

Dusting in Crossville from the snow early this morning. Not much but we weren't supposed to get anything anyway so it's better than nothing.
 

You and John have had more days with snow on the ground than without since Christmas it seems like.


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[8283 El Nino Baby]

More related to February, but someone posted on the WeatherWest site the attached image. It seems to imply a very wet February for Tennessee, but I cannot really tell what the chart is saying beyond that.

[John1122]

I got around a half inch on raise surfaces and on top of the snow. The road where the pavement was wet just had a few patches of snow. It snowed pretty hard for a while though. This has been an excellent month from the Plateau west and less good to the East but I think almost everyone except parts of Chattanooga has gotten a couple of inches. I just hope the current pattern can pull a rabbit out for everyone. It would be a shame to see a BN Jan with AN precip and it warms up just enough to rain a few times, then the pattern relaxes. 

[John1122]

If you want to see a storm that's probably going to trend NW, look for the Northern energy to be behind the southern and let it phase. That's what the Euro was showing early with the system that's way East but the northern stream ended up getting out ahead of the Southern energy and it had nothing to pull it NW. 

[John1122]

The Euro is the great desert again this run, but it's been folding towards the GFS with surface features/storms this year. So hopefully the GFS is onto something next week. 

[Shocker0]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

You and John have had more days with snow on the ground than without since Christmas it seems like.


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Until this dusting, I saw flakes fall only 3 times the entire winter here (all since January 3rd) but all three events were 4-6 inches until now. So basically if it was gonna snow, it made each one of them count here for sure. Same for John's part of the Plateau I believe. Seemed like from 2017-2019 all we ever got here was very cold dry snows that added up to 1" or less each time so it's good to have actual decent storms the last couple winters again.

 

There is a pile of snow that slid off the roof of one of the houses at work that has been there since the January 3rd snow and survived a couple big rainstorms so I figure it will last through the next two weeks most likely or longer.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like the happy hour GFS is trying to move the dreaded Lakes Low out a little quicker with the Tuesday system. Might be a realistic solution in the fast flow. That clipper is dragging some nice cold air behind it, so if we can time the southwest shortwave out just a tad slower, we might have something. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I've seen worse and we're pretty used to the marginal set ups this winter at this point: