Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[John1122]

1 minute ago, bearman said:

Still 38 here in Knoxville.  I expected us to warm up as the front approched but it has not happened yet.

There's a stalled warm front just south of Knox per one of the TV mets. Its in the 50s and 60s just south of it. I figured it would come north but has so far. 

[PowellVolz]

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[PowellVolz]

38 at my house
45 at Fairfield Glade


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[PowellVolz]

Bigger precipitation field than I was expecting. Sleet reported north of Nashville but it’s snowing all the way back to the Arkansas/Oklahoma boarder. Not expecting anything outside of elevation in ETn but if 850’s crash before the valley warms up, it might get interesting, especially north of 40.


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[PowellVolz]

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[John1122]

21 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Bigger precipitation field than I was expecting. Sleet reported north of Nashville but it’s snowing all the way back to the Arkansas/Oklahoma boarder. Not expecting anything outside of elevation in ETn but if 850’s crash before the valley warms up, it might get interesting, especially north of 40.


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I think that's modeled to dry up as it gets here. Hopefully it holds together.

[PowellVolz]

I think that's modeled to dry up as it gets here. Hopefully it holds together.

I wouldn’t be surprised if you and @Shocker0 see more than expected.


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[Olhausen]

Snowing and sleeting at work here in Portland Tennessee 

[John1122]

13 minutes ago, Olhausen said:

Snowing and sleeting at work here in Portland Tennessee 

Did you noticed how long it took post front?

[John1122]

Of some note, the storm that looked possible here a few days ago, looks like it's about to miss North Carolina entirely. Not many times when you get the rug pulled by a relentless SE trend. 

[John1122]

The GFS, which I don't trust, is now giving me 1.5 inches from this system.  I'll cut that in half and hope for the best. It has fallen to 35.8 here. It stunned there's not been the typical post from warm up. 

[John1122]

The HRRR is all over the place. It dropped 6 inches there around Olhausen a couple runs ago. It's backed way off since. 

[Shocker0]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if you and @Shocker0 see more than expected.


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Hope so, we're not really expecting anything at all though. It's 45 at my house and have been having heavy rain. Surprisingly there is still some snow on the ground from the other day through all of it. I'd be happy if we could even pull off a dusting. If somehow more, even better.

 

EDIT: I say that but the cold front may be going through now because it's dropped 3 degrees in a five minutes.

[John1122]

Man, that GFS run was even worse than the last. The whole state with less than 3/10ths inch of precip from day 2-15. 

[John1122]

Mighty dry on the Euro too, basically no precip for a week after today outside the mountains with some light snow. Hopefully it flips back. Last night at this time it was a storm parade. 

[Olhausen]

3 hours ago, John1122 said:

The HRRR is all over the place. It dropped 6 inches there around Olhausen a couple runs ago. It's backed way off since. 

Yeah Portland is going to end up with 2-3 inches if not more. This was from work when I was leaving at 11:30pm. Everything was completely covered including roads. I saw like 6 snow plows headed north as I drove home to White House.

[John1122]

8 minutes ago, Olhausen said:

Yeah Portland is going to end up with 2-3 inches if not more. This was from work when I was leaving at 11:30pm. Everything was completely covered including roads. I saw like 6 snow plows headed north as I drove home to White House.

Outstanding! Congratulations. 

[John1122]

I've changed over to snow. Precip is broken right now but still a nice slug of it to the west if it doesn't break up. 

[John1122]

The 06z GFS is back to a Miller A look that somehow cools enough on the Plateau and NE TN to snow, but rains to the Ohio River.  

[Weathertree2]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The 06z GFS is back to a Miller A look that somehow cools enough on the Plateau and NE TN to snow, but rains to the Ohio River.  

And warms enough to rain at end of run, which two runs earlier, depicted a historic ice storm for west TN

[Windspeed]

I was hopeful if at least a dusting this morning but the precip is sorta falling apart. Might see some flakes but meh..

[Silas Lang]

One thing about the mid to long range is that nothing is locked in place. I was just flipping through the past few runs and they all look drastically different. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Light snow currently falling IMBY.

I am distrustful of modeling at the moment.  That said, looks like a pattern change is in store just after the beginning of February.  The MJO is in the COD with very low amplitude 4(warm phase) being shown.  It is interesting as I think I remember NC folks talking about how there is a connection there with phase 3 and winter storms for them.  Anyway, lots of variations of MJO stuff on modeling.  To me this implies a somewhat variable pattern is upcoming as the MJO really wants to remain in the null phase.  If it stays there, it may let cold push at times into the US.  That produces thread the needle storms, but not the zero chance stuff that we saw in December.  

That also gets me to my next point.  I am very suspicious of the dry look in modeling.  It may well last through this cold spell or it may not.  As I noted yesterday, I would suspect as things retrograde beginning later next week...that the chances for a storm are there.  I would lean towards two opportunities next week, a mid-week window and a late week window.  This upcoming window looks far less promising than it did several days ago for sure.  But it is not uncommon for modeling to lose storms and then find them.  It is also not uncommon for us to have a break in precip as well.  La Nina patterns are notorious for dry spells.

The CPC released their forecast for February, and they are bullish on a warm eastern seaboard.  I can't disagree at this point, but I doubt this is a return to the December torch.  That looks fits climatology.  As is, January will finish likely BN for temps and AN for snowfall.  Not bad.  Now, time to see if we can steal a storm or two before spring begins to show its hand.  

[Daniel Boone]

Wound up with a dusting this morning. 2 tenths to be exact... If med. range modeling is correct, looks like below avg. T for Month with avg. Snowfall based on older Climate standard, above avg., New.

     Barring an above avg snow Feb/March it's looking like a below avg. Snowfall Winter here.

[Daniel Boone]

32 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Light snow currently falling IMBY.

I am distrustful of modeling at the moment.  That said, looks like a pattern change is in store just after the beginning of February.  The MJO is in the COD with very low amplitude 4(warm phase) being shown.  It is interesting as I think I remember NC folks talking about how there is a connection there with phase 3 and winter storms.  Anyway, lots of variations of MJO stuff on modeling.  To me this implies a somewhat variable pattern is upcoming as the COD really wants to remain in the null phase.  If it stays there, it may let cold push at times into the US.  That produces thread the needle storms, but not the zero chance stuff that we saw in December.  

That also gets me to my next point.  I am very suspicious of the dry look in modeling.  It may well last through this cold spell.  As I noted yesterday, I would suspect as things retrograde beginning later next week...that the chances for a storm are there.  I would lean towards two opportunities next week, a mid-week window and a late week window.  This upcoming window looks far less promising than it did several days ago for sure.  But it is not uncommon for modeling to lose storms and then find them.  It is also not uncommon for us to have a break in precip as well.  La Nina patterns are notorious or dry spells.

The CPC released their forecast for February, and they are bullish on a warm eastern seaboard.  I can't disagree at this point, but I doubt this is a return to the December torch.  That looks fits climatology.  As is, January will finish likely BN for temps and AN for snowfall.  Not bad.  Now, time to see if we can steal a storm or two before spring begins to show its hand.  

Yeah, think they are basically going Nina Feb. Climo .

     Hopefully, we pull off an odd Nina one ala; 96, 72 or even '75. 

[Daniel Boone]

Wise Va Cam : https://www.uvawise.edu/academics/departments/mathematics-computer-science/webcam

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like the 12z GFS has something to track shortly after 100.  Doesn't look hugely significant at the moment, but is a good example of how quickly models can pivot.

[Carvers Gap]

Also, at 204 the 12z GFS also has a fairly potent winter storm.

[Carvers Gap]

Maybe a little more than potent just after 200.  LOL.  960mb slp around Cape Hatteras.

[Weathertree2]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Also, at 204 the 12z GFS also has a fairly potent winter storm.

That is really really far to the South; I would have expected to see some extreme cold here with it that far South but it is not really