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Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

AMZ8990

By AMZ8990,
in Tennessee Valley

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Kasper
Kasper

I haven’t seen things this Active since my X-Wife slept with her co-workers! Keep ‘em coming! 

Holston_River_Rambler
Holston_River_Rambler

To follow up on what John said, the 0z GFS was what I call the space invaders pattern. The northern stream and the STJ keep shooting energy at each other like the old video game:  

Wurbus
Wurbus

Best I could do while working. Euro rolling

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Shocker0

Shocker0

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Nah.  This isn't Jan 17-18 at all.   There have been a ton of storms to track so far this season.  That was insanely dry weather back in 17-18.  This pattern is nothing like that.  The STJ is active.  The cold is not as intense which allows storms to track at much higher latitudes.  We just don't live at a latitude where it snows every week.  The past two weeks have been a great run for many. Heck, IMBY, we probably have had less than most, but it has still been good.  I like next week.  Tuesday is a time frame to watch.  I think this weekend is a whiff.  Honestly, the storm doesn't seem to be getting itself together.  Maybe that changes, but just seems anemic at this point.  So, on to the next one.  Tuesday looks like a minor system on the 12z GFS, and maybe something cooking right after that if the 0z Euro is correct.  12z GFS has that late week system as well.

Oh yeah, we've had a lot of snow in Crossville this year, I just meant that as of now the next couple of weeks look much colder than we've had in an extended period since 2018, but again the snow chances currently don't look high. Or if we do get snow, I'm afraid the pattern will flip immediately after and warm up again.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

This winter reminds me more and more of a 95-96'(2.0 lighter version).  We have a lull right now, but that winter came back after a couple of weeks.  Hard not to be excited about the pattern next week.  No guarantees.  You all know the drill.  BUT that is a crap ton of cold air and energy in the pattern starting Tuesday/Wednesday and onward.  

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
Just now, Shocker0 said:

Oh yeah, we've had a lot of snow in Crossville this year, I just meant that as of now the next couple of weeks look much colder than we've had in an extended period since 2018, but again the snow chances currently don't look high. Or if we do get snow, I'm afraid the pattern will flip immediately after and warm up again.

I 100% agree that cold patterns can get quite dry and suppressed.  So, point well taken.  I think we get back in the game by maybe middle of next week. Looks quiet until then.  But who knows, you may get something with this frontal passage TR/FR.  

I think a pattern change is likely by early February.  The question is whether the new pattern will be warm?  Looks like ensembles give us roughly 2-3 more weeks of a good pattern.  Then the trough flips west.  The interesting things is the pattern still stays cool for us through roughly mid-February.  Fortunately, this is mid-winter and not December which didn't have established/deep cold and had that crazy block which prevented even the most meager of cold fronts to come eastward.  I suspect we may see a more traditional set-up where the Mountain West is cold but it pushes to the Apps, super similar to last winter(maybe Feb as well?).    It may be the pattern is a mix of cutters (which press the cold southeast) and then coastal storms.  Probably will be base warm, but active IMHO.  

Yeah, you all have done well on the Plateau.  Super jealous!  LOL.  

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

I really think right now it is not so much a continuous suppressed pattern(this weekend is...) as it is that cold and the STJ are out of sync.  If those couple, watch out.  Most of the really cold air(which we saw on modeling last week) is not showing up on modeling this week.  So, I suspect this forum is going to be on the boundary between rain and snow.  Good place to be if we want to see a storm.  The bigger problem we have is the "warm up and rain" deal which is a consequence of precip heading north between cold snaps.  Need that to get back in sync with cold shots.   Looks like that "may" happen by mid-week next week.  

 

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

One other interesting thing....As the trough begins to retrograde back into the West during the last days of Jan and early Feb, all of that out-to-sea(OTS) confluence is going to retrograde inland.  If we can time the pattern as things retrograde, we could see 1-2 storms along the coast.  That is why I am somewhat interested in the middle of next week and the following weekend.  PSU is mentioning that in the MA forum.  So, looks like a window that is being watched by a few.

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Olhausen

Olhausen

Posted
Posted

If you live in northern middle Tennessee you will be rooting for the latest hrr run. Nam 12k and 3k showing nothing but a dusting as far as other short range models go. Hopefully we can get lucky and at least get an inch or so since it won’t get above freezing till Sunday after the precipitation pulls through late tonight.

B369041C-5F4A-4275-B1B7-5C0FB93FFA66.thumb.png.7080e3ca6d0cada89220acaa332ec0ea.pngDA60161D-42C8-4F61-9B4A-0DB848EC31FF.thumb.png.867dcefb449750c2c54c271b98213e64.png

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

12z Euro has a really good look in terms of slp on Tuesday.  The CMC was close, but had a less robust system.  Given the Euro's propensity to overdo things of late....prob need to wait on some support for that run.   I am really to the point the GFS has to be on board.  Has the GFS become the new/temporary "Dr No?"

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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

Posted
Posted

GFS has performed better this winter. It's weeklies have also beat those of the Euro. Finally, though more anecdotal, GFS performs better with severe. American coding might be best for American weather, esp niche like tornadoes. 

Yeah I'll take a blend of the 12Z EC and 12Z GFS please. Could Chattanooga be that lucky? No don't answer that!

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

I shared this in Obs thread but wanted your feedback. Rain and sleet in Kingsport. Temp is 37, no where near the 49 forcasted high. Wonder if this bodes well for quicker changeover in the a.m.?

The upper levels won't be right until the front passes, so I'd guess it may be a little faster but not much. 

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

I only got to 37 yesterday and the forecast high was 45. Looked like it was only gonna get to 42 today (forecast 46) but it has warmed up to 46 now

There's cold trapped here, I would guess it's 5 or 6 degrees warmer a few hundred feet above me. I got up to 38.8 about an hour ago but am back down to 37.2 now. I still expect it to scour out ahead of the front. 

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