Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[John1122]

The RGem tried again and even got snow a little further NW but overall less moisture made it over the mountains vs earlier. 

There's a trailing piece of energy that the Euro was allowing to interact with the storm and that pulled it West. Now the Euro just blows it away.  The GFS has been developing it behind the first piece and giving the Carolinas a long long duration overrunning event. 

[TellicoWx]

GFS digging SW a little more, not sure how much it will help

[TellicoWx]

GFS is struggling right now...jumped ever piece of energy 150 or so miles west in North America @69h

[PowellVolz]

The RGem tried again and even got snow a little further NW but overall less moisture made it over the mountains vs earlier. 
There's a trailing piece of energy that the Euro was allowing to interact with the storm and that pulled it West. Now the Euro just blows it away.  The GFS has been developing it behind the first piece and giving the Carolinas a long long duration overrunning event. 

Isn’t the Euro bad about leaving energy behind?


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[John1122]

5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Isn’t the Euro bad about leaving energy behind?


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It's to sit energy in the 4 corners region and let it sit there longer than it does in reality. 

[PowellVolz]

It's to sit energy in the 4 corners region and let it sit there longer than it does in reality. 

This isn’t that situation though correct?


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[TellicoWx]

GEFS jumped the energy as well...another jump like that and the GFS will look more like the short range models, and bring alot more into the game.

[Vol4Life]

Just now, TellicoWx said:

GEFS jumped the energy as well...another jump like that and the GFS will look more like the short range models, and bring alot more into the game.

Noticed the GFS trend over the past 3 runs is the westward expansion of the precip.  It’s literally moved back to the west about 200 miles.   
 

What do you mean by jumping the energy?  Trying to learn..

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Vol4Life said:

Noticed the GFS trend over the past 3 runs is the westward expansion of the precip.  It’s literally moved back to the west about 200 miles.   
 

What do you mean by jumping the energy?  Trying to learn..

If you watch the 500mb vort map, you can follow the northern energy digging south. Earlier runs it digs thru the OH River valley. 0z digs it back into MO. Short range has been digging it to OK. Further west/southwest it can dig. The better odds of 1) able to spin a LP sooner (more west than currently) 2) increases the interaction with the energy over the south west.

[John1122]

This is what Tellico is referring too. Watch the final frame vs the prior 3 runs. 

[John1122]

When the Euro dumped on everyone from the western Plateau east, the 500mb energy was wrapping up over NE Texas/SW Arkansas. 

[Vol4Life]

Looks like to me that the CMC moved back to the NW.  One to two more jogs like that and Plateau East is in the game

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

Looks like to me that the CMC moved back to the NW.  One to two more jogs like that and Plateau East is in the game

It moved the energy west like the GFS, not quite as far though. Maybe 75-100 miles. 

[TellicoWx]

12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

This is what Tellico is referring too. Watch the final frame vs the prior 3 runs. 

Thanks John...and if you watch the last frame all 3 pieces of energy (Southwest, N. Plains, and ours) jumps back west almost exactly the same distance. Almost like it shifted the entire upper air pattern over NA in unison.

[Math/Met]

There’s still a subtle inverted trough signature along the mountains on the GFS.  Just need a little more of a westward shift, and then that inverted trough could help eastern areas.

[John1122]

The Euro has a ton of activity along the Gulf with a massive high in place in the Mid-West but slides several lows by with no amping at all. At one point there's a 1046 in Iowa and a L around New Orleans and nothing. There's another in the barrel and ready to fire behind that one. Looks like it may be a winner for us, at least on this run.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

This may have been the little piece of vorticity John was talking about, but I'm not sure, so here is a frame from the 6z RGEM:

Look at that tiny area of vorticity in the blue circle. Now watch what it does as the run progresses:

 

It seems to be encouraging at least some part of the southern vort to interact with the northern one. It's a pretty subtle strand of vorticity, so something to watch on the very Hi Res models over the next few cycles. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Not that anybody trusts the Euro at this point, but for those of use who are happy just to se snow falling, it gets the job done tomorrow AM for parts of East TN, SW VA and SE KY

even the 6z GFS is trying:

 

The only other models that are trying to show this are the WRF-ARWs, so it is what it is I guess. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z Euro manages to look kind of RGEMish and gets some qgf back over the mts:

How much of that makes it to the ground is up in the air. It is a slight west jog from 0z. 

[Kasper]

15 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

6z Euro manages to look kind of RGEMish and gets some qgf back over the mts:

How much of that makes it to the ground is up in the air. It is a slight west jog from 0z. 

So close yet so far away, I think we get another whiff! 

[Carvers Gap]

Trends matter at this point.  Modeling didn't exactly slam the door on snow falling in far E TN this weekend.  The 6z Euro has it.  The 0z CMC has it as does the RGEM.  The GFS does not at 6z, but did at 0z.  @Math/Met has some good insight above.  To me, I can't rule out some light snow in E TN, especially the NE areas.  Trends will be important today.  If it is going to move, we will need to see that process begin today.  Micro move in the right direction last night, but going to need more than that.

[bearman]

12 minutes ago, Kasper said:

So close yet so far away, I think we get another whiff! 

Not buying the no scenario until morning of…… just got the go north feel.  It we were in the bullseye everyone would be convinced it was going to end up in the upper lakes region.    LoL it still might end up there.

[EastTNWeatherAdmirer]

Latest NAM looking a little better at hour 51. Northern and southern stream vort/energy not as disconnected. Perhaps the ULL will try to scoop up more energy than the models are saying now. If that doesn't happen only coastal nc would see snow.

[Shocker0]

I really hope we aren't about to have two weeks of frigid weather and 0 snowfall. Shades of January 2018, except this time there would be snow all around us.

[PowellVolz]

I really hope we aren't about to have two weeks of frigid weather and 0 snowfall. Shades of January 2018, except this time there would be snow all around us.

Yeah that would definitely be a punch in the gut. Lucky this pattern is just now going into a really good 500mb look and I think this isn’t our last GOM opportunity. There will also be wrinkles in the flow that only high res will pick up on less than 48 hours out that can easily drop a couple of inches with NW flow. I still don’t think Friday’s system is off the table.


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[Bigbald]

What an awful 12z suite for friday/Saturday ha.  At least we were never really in the game to be too invested in this system.  Some of the model runs showing the precipitation shield blossoming west always looked funny to me anyways.  Will still watch but I guess we are in punt territory.

[Shocker0]

10 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Yeah that would definitely be a punch in the gut. Lucky this pattern is just now going into a really good 500mb look and I think this isn’t our last GOM opportunity. There will also be wrinkles in the flow that only high res will pick up on less than 48 hours out that can easily drop a couple of inches with NW flow. I still don’t think Friday’s system is off the table.


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Yeah even just a small NW Flow event in these conditions and we could have snow-cover for several days. Hopefully something comes our way so we aren't wasting cold weather on just being cold.

[PowellVolz]

Yeah even just a small NW Flow event in these conditions and we could have snow-cover for several days. Hopefully something comes our way so we aren't wasting cold weather on just being cold.

It’s amazing how way up north it never quits snowing with negative DP’s but it never fails when we get cold enough, we dry out.


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[Windspeed]

Latest GFS operational looks good for the eastern Valley. The back end of the event for the Carolinas also jumped NW.

[Carvers Gap]

Nah.  This isn't Jan 17-18 at all.   There have been a ton of storms to track so far this season.  That was insanely dry weather back in 17-18.  This pattern is nothing like that.  The STJ is active.  The cold is not as intense which allows storms to track at much higher latitudes.  We just don't live at a latitude where it snows every week.  The past two weeks have been a great run for many. Heck, IMBY, we probably have had less than most, but it has still been good.  I like next week.  Tuesday is a time frame to watch.  I think this weekend is a whiff.  Honestly, the storm doesn't seem to be getting itself together.  Maybe that changes, but just seems anemic at this point.  So, on to the next one.  Tuesday looks like a minor system on the 12z GFS, and maybe something cooking right after that if the 0z Euro is correct.  12z GFS has that late week system as well.