Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

17 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I really hope the Canadian is right, because the GFS was one of the most frustrating runs ever. Dry cold while people to the S/E/N/W of the forum area get 6+ inches of snow.

You forgot that at the end of the run we got the ever fruitful Miller B to cap it off. <please read with sarcasm>

[Carvers Gap]

I won't stick a fork in this one quite yet with the 12z GEFS surprisingly coming on board.  Need to see if the GEFS/EPS ensembles have a western cluster of lows compared to what operationals depict, especially for folks in NE TN.  These are sneaky systems in this area.  Within the 72-96 range this year, TRI has 3x been moved from significant accumulations to hard-earned back end snow.  I would be very surprised with the SER does not fight during the next 10 says.  I certainly could happen, but think it likely we connect on one one these.  

[Carvers Gap]

For all intents and purposes, all but the Euro connect on something on their 12z runs.  The GFS is close to multiple events.  The CMC has a monster at 192.  Lots of energy running around.  As the Euro just showed(not to the good this time), things can change quickly with this much cold and a relatively active STJ.  

[nrgjeff]

Let's be honest, straight-forward, and frank.. 12Z suite overall needs a train wreck gif.

However the GFS did already tick northwest relative to itself. EC cave is epic. Canadian and UK, smh.

All that griping aside, and about 1/3 of ensemble members are better - deeper 552 into Alabama and cooperative southern stream 570.

Still four days out. I'd say another 24 hours for a northwest jog or jump, 36 hours max. Otherwise punt.

[Vol4Life]

Piggybacking on Jeff’s comment above, I counted around 22 ensemble members (nearly half) with at least 2-3”+ in East TN.  This isn’t over yet...

[PowellVolz]

Maybe I’m just pissing into the wind but all three systems this year moved 100 miles, two of them NW in the 11th hour. IMO if we were ground zero right now this board would be concerned with a NW trend coming. But then again it may track SE of the area. 3+ days out, nothing is off the table.


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[PowellVolz]

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[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Let's be honest, straight-forward, and frank.. 12Z suite overall needs a train wreck gif.

However the GFS did already tick northwest relative to itself. EC cave is epic. Canadian and UK, smh.

All that griping aside, and about 1/3 of ensemble members are better - deeper 552 into Alabama and cooperative southern stream 570.

Still four days out. I'd say another 24 hours for a northwest jog or jump, 36 hours max. Otherwise punt.

Agree on that.  Pretty much sums it up.  

[John1122]

It's the NAM at 84 so not the best, but it's much further N/W with the precip than anything from 12z at hr90.

[TellicoWx]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I wonder if this ends up being like the December 2017 storm? 

Something similar is what I believe is the most probable outcome (but who know, changes in 500 from run to run is bad right now). Not much separation in energy, depends on how far SE the initial front pushes/orientation and then multiple day overrunning with the waves following along the stalled front. Just don't buy any amped solution right now, week LP popping maybe.

[John1122]

I will say this about the storm, it seems oddly warm here to get a deep south ice and snow storm like the one being modeled. Normally we'd have to be in the 10's or low 20s for highs and lows in the 0-5 range for the Florida Panhandle to have a winter weather threat.

[John1122]

The RGEM jumped more NW than the NAM. Has a nice 2-4 inch event East of 75.

[TellicoWx]

6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The RGEM jumped more NW than the NAM. Has a nice 2-4 inch event East of 75.

It and the NAM dig the northern energy more SW, allowing them to pickup the southern energy. GFS misses the connection but trails weakened form of the energy behind the initial (2nd wave). Euro misses and squashes the 2nd.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I've figured it out. We've run out of thunder. TIMs model needs a reboot tomorrow night. 

[TellicoWx]

MRX going to ride the NBM again

[John1122]

The Euro and all other guidance seem to handle the first event Wednesday and Wednesday night a lot differently too. You'd think they'd converge a bit more by now.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think the GFS is going to be a tick better this run, based on vorticity changes at hr 51, but let's see how it plays out. 

[John1122]

Didn't see much change on the GFS. It's not always been right this year but it locks on and doesn't change much so far.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It looked to me like there was the potential for a little more interaction early on, but that didn't work out at all. 

One positive note is that there has been a noticeable, but small trend with the jet streak to become stronger and move NW over the past few runs:

We're pretty well positioned to be on the right entrance region if that amplification continues. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Interesting to see the 18z RGEM move that much... something to watch.

[John1122]

I think the Euro now may be the most suppressed model. 

[Carvers Gap]

With so much cold and an active STJ through the end of the month, we really have about two weeks of good snowstorm tracking ahead.  They won't all pan out, but some have a good chance to.  Looks like the pattern is trying to flip the trough out West for February.  This time modeling really likes cold to push for a week or so, even after the flip.  The lack of a massive -NAO should allow the cold to push southeast in an MJO 1-3 set-up before finally giving way to a thaw.  Would not surprise me at all to see winter make another final comeback after that thaw.  Been a decent winter for many.  Weak La Nina's can be great patterns.  There is now way modeling has each individual storm modeled well.  With so much in the pipeline, it is likely a matter of time before one of these connects along the eastern seaboard. 

[Carvers Gap]

TRI is now just 0.4F above normal for the month.  Considering the first two days were +29 and +17, that is a big turn around.  TRI has also received about 4.9" of snow which occurred as part of several nickel-and-dime events.  Unless something drastic occurs, TRI has a real chance at finishing the month below normal for temps.  How many of us had that in our seasonal forecasts?  I sure didn't!!!   LOL.  But I did get the end of December warm shot correct - woo, yeah(said in a Bueller, Bueller flat tone).  It is pretty amazing the work that this forum did in the pre-winter thread that we do during the summer and fall.  Lots of great analogs, ENSO discussions, etc.  The ENSO thread itself has some great work in it as well.  It is a group effort and the body of work is pretty interesting in how well it works through so many scenarios.  If you are new to the forum, take some time and go back through that set of posts.  Seasonal forecasting(pro or hobby) is IMHO some of the toughest work out there.   I don't stay overly tied to the seasonal forecast though.  Some pieces are just inevitably going to miss.  Chaos is unpredictable for reason.  However, some good stuff in there.   We might be the smallest subforum, but ya'll produce great content.  These storm threads have been a blast to follow.  And hey, we are here year round.  It is a little slower during the summer, but there is still interesting stuff at times.

BTW, early look at the next winter season.  Moderate to weak El Nino is possible.  Moderat is no beuno.  Weak El Nino's which follow La Nina's I believe can be quite good.  The SST gradient will be strong around the Nino and give a stronger ENSO signal.  I foresee a mean trough over the East through much of the last 2/3 of winter, BUT beware...Nino winters can start late to very late.  Summer and fall could well be seasonal, especially late summer.  The hangover from La Nina may keep the first part of summer warm.   Decembers are often rainy and slighlyt AN.  Wonder if we get a flip to cold right around or just after Christmas this time?  Maybe we see some snow showers in October this year?

[John1122]

NAM made another big NW move with its precip shield. Could just be the NAM doing NAM things with amping a system. This is going to be a big run for areas East of 75. 

[John1122]

It didn't come quite as far as it looked like it might. Still a nice event in the 81 corridor and NC border counties. 

[Carvers Gap]

Interestingly, the NAM nailed the NW trend first on the last storm.  The long range NAM keeping hope alive!!!

[Silas Lang]

What do you need to happen to get this NW? I was kind of confused about the suppression since the air is not nearly as cold as similar looking events. 

[PowellVolz]

What do you need to happen to get this NW? I was kind of confused about the suppression since the air is not nearly as cold as similar looking events. 

A stronger/amped up low pressure would pull it NW


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[Silas Lang]

24 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

A stronger/amped up low pressure would pull it NW


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Thanks! This may be a dumb question, but are there any factors that could lead to more amplification of a low pressure in this scenario? 

Just trying to learn what to watch for here. 

[PowellVolz]

Thanks! This may be a dumb question, but are there any factors that could lead to more amplification of a low pressure in this scenario? 
Just trying to learn what to watch for here. 

Stuff like that is above my pay grade


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