Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Weathertree2]

Been a long time since seen such a good winter pattern, hope everyone gets their snow fix this season!

[TellicoWx]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

For posterity....posterity and storm track reference.  Subtract ~4.5 for this storm at TRI.

 

 

 

[John1122]

The Euro jumped from off shore to giving far Eastern areas snow from 12z to 0z for the system around Friday or Saturday. 

[AMZ8990]

6zGfS has a very active storm track over the next 10-12 days.  It’s basically a storm rolling through the forum every 3-4 days.  Really good potential going forward for trackable storms in our forum.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z Euro had the wave "riding the front" snow over SE KY and SW VA that I think we've seen on most of the recent model runs, but it also tried to build another wave back over MS toward the end:

 

I don't know what I think about this weekend system. Do y'all think this is a typical situation where we can expect a NW trend? If that's the case I like where we are at this range. 

[Bigbald]

9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

6z Euro had the wave "riding the front" snow over SE KY and SW VA that I think we've seen on most of the recent model runs, but it also tried to build another wave back over MS toward the end:

 

I don't know what I think about this weekend system. Do y'all think this is a typical situation where we can expect a NW trend? If that's the case I like where we are at this range. 

Bob Chill had a good synopsis in the MA forum as to why they could fail in a seemingly perfect pattern because of how progressive the flow is.  I believe it could apply to us as well or anyone a little further inland.

[Carvers Gap]

Certainly we can always strike out, but the SER has been there all winter.  I don't think it is going away.  Folks in NE TN know about 200-300 mile shifts in storms this winter.  Anytime there has been the slightest relaxation in the jet, the SER is going to push.  A strike-out for DC is not necessarily a strikeout for us.  In fact, a great pattern here is often the pits or the Mid-Atlantic and NE.  There is always a way to strike out at this latitude.

So here are the ways we can score with a deep trough:

1.  Clipper or northern stream energy w/ no help from the GOM.  Prob our best bet.  Always good to remember that clippers tend to trend northward at the last minute.  

2.  Multi-day overrunning event....look no further than last year.  I might add that event was modeled for NE TN for days, and flipped late to west TN - BIG trend.

3.  Slider

4.  Miller A as the trough arrives and/or departs.

The key is that cold air is now in place.  That has been a problem for the past couple of weeks.  So we exchange our active/wet pattern which has marginal cold for a pattern which has cold in place and we have to deal with suppression - still the same pattern just more cold pushing.  That last scenario is an entirely different way of tracking storms.  In NE TN, we have had to hope the storm doesn't cut.  With these we have to hope they trend NW.  There is an active STJ with a SER which will want to push due to the MJO.  There is cold in place,  I will take my chances.  It could go dry or could be a pattern which produces a lot of snow.  Where the focus has been on middle and west TN for the past couple of weeks, there is a chance the upcoming pattern could favor eastern areas which include Chattanooga, maybe even favor Chattanooga.  The very best winters involved northern stream clippers and systems which trended northwest.  That scenario implies a deep eastern trough which we are about to get.  Could we go 17-18 where the entire cold shot is dry?  Sure, but that actually has not occurred during this pattern which has been firmly established since the great flip of Jan 3rd.  BTW, we have tracked three storms in just two weeks.   Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but this pattern is exactly that....a pattern(meaning repetition) which has had an active STJ which has trended well north of the original LR numerical model guidance.  

As for Thursday, time of day is what matters....I have not looked at it.  Would likely favor KY and the Plateau as Holston mentions.  If at night, could favor NE TN and SW VA as well.  I have low confidence it brings lower elevations snow.  Looks like cold chasing rain, unless the front checks up

Still waiting to see which piece of energy churns up a storm this weekend or shortly after......

[Carvers Gap]

I should add that the trough will likely create a gradient where storms will ride the boundary of the Arctic/Polar fronts.  Modeling will struggle mightily with setting that boundary.  I would expect that boundary to be north of where current modeling is.  Could it trend southward?  Yep, we have seen it snow in New Orleans during several winters.  That said, the MJO does not favor a suppressed pattern.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

End of the 12z RGEM looks pretty nice for a possible overrunning event.:

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

With these we have to hope they trend NW.  There is an active STJ with a SER which will want to push due to the MJO.

Checks out with the 12z GFS:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It may not be a hit this run, but it is hard not like the overall look for this weekend:

 

Northern steam energy, southern stream energy and an extra kick of moisture from the eastern Pac:

 

[PowellVolz]

Seems like the mods have issues with the NW precip shield for overrunning events.


.

[Carvers Gap]

14 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Checks out with the 12z GFS:

Check out the weekend system on the 0z run and now 12z.  

[Carvers Gap]

To me, that at least jogs far enough north to get Chattanooga involved.  Hard not to like, especially for those south of I-40.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z was a little bit south with the weekend storm, but there was a big boom potential on that run too. Imagine if the secondary vort. doesn't sink SSW and get cut off. If that one catches the southern one and then the third one catches em both, boom. 

 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

That is a storm signal for this weekend for at least the SE corner of TN, northern Alabama, and north Georgia.  One more jog and a good chunk of E TN would be involved.  This past storm trended massive jumps to the NW once it began moving.  @Holston_River_Ramblerwould be interesting to see the move on this one.  It went from nothing at 0z to a significant storm to our east within two runs.  I doubt that is done trending.

[Carvers Gap]

At 0z a lot of that energy for Saturday went through the Straits of Florida at 162 and then to the Bahamas.  Now the energy is sliding across the GOM and the NW shield of precip encompasses most of North Carolina.   It looks to me like modeling is dancing between the first piece of energy on Saturday and the one trailing behind it by a few days.  No way modeling has any of that nailed down.  

[Carvers Gap]

And want to see the influence of the MJO, take a look at what the model is getting ready to do for the rest of the run....those really, really deep troughs that push well below us are suspect I think.

[John1122]

The Euro Control this morning. Possible hint at where 12z could head. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think the CMC is going to barely miss having a big phased storm early to mid next week. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think the CMC is going to barely miss having a big phased storm early to mid next week. 

Ehhh never mind, false aleet. I saw this and got all excited but no dice:

The southwest shortwave kicks out too quickly.

 

It was close though:

[TellicoWx]

We need a good Ole Triple Phaser...seems like it's been forever lol 

[BuCoVaWx]

39 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

We need a good Ole Triple Phaser...seems like it's been forever lol 

Yes, we do need that. Could potentially turn this winter epic. Been a very long time lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z Euro looked nice for this weekend:

 

Just don't want it to end up too far NW, lol. 

[Carvers Gap]

Been out for a bit, did I miss anything?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Been out for a bit, did I miss anything?

His Grace the Euro trying to tease us:

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro Kuchera map for the weekend storm.  Subtract about 1" north of I40 in the valleys due to the TR system..  Cold air is in place.  This is snow or no at this point.

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the 24 hour Kuchera for folks to our south to see.  The other image cut those totals off.  It also eliminates previous snow fall from the remnants of today and also TR.  It does not encompass the snowfall that continues to the NE.  This is a solid, historical track verbatim.

[John1122]

The 06z Control for the win! It did indeed show where the 12z op was heading. 

[Icy Hot]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Here is the 24 hour Kuchera for folks to our south to see.  The other image cut those totals off.  It also eliminates previous snow fall from the remnants of today and also TR.  It does not encompass the snowfall that continues to the NE.  This is a solid, historical track verbatim.

Wonder why MRX is down playing this?