Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[PowellVolz]

Here's the run on the GFS:

Looks like the 850 low tracks from Starkville, MS to around Dayton,TN, then towards Damascus, VA:

 
Probably way too soon to be looking at things like the 850 low track. but I'm happy that there is something to track, for now. 
 
 

Be nice if this tracked a little north of Atlanta


.

[Carvers Gap]

To me, the past three runs of the GFS seem to struggle with feedback and the western slp after the 3rd.  It just sits there which digs the downstream ridge.  The CMC does not have this nor does the EPS.  

[Carvers Gap]

The GFS is leaving the Aleutian high in place after a brief relaxation in the pattern, and that is certainly realistic.  If that slp kicks off the Cali coast after Jan 3 it likely doesn't allow the AH to rebuild.  That vortex backs the flow and reforms the AH.  

[Carvers Gap]

Yeah, the 12z GFS doesn't even look realistic in its run, eventually stringing together lots of small vortices and rotating them around that high.  May happened, but will have to literally see it on a satellite to believe it.  Looks like The Day after Tomorrow when it starts stringing vortices together in a line like it does at the end of its run.  LOL. This is 384 which I normally wouldn't show, but the model is doing some weird stuff in the LR.  It may verify, but the likely feedback problem on the model is producing this.

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z CFSv2 started to look likes MJO plot.  Something is way off regarding American modeling and their MJO plots at CPC.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Ukmet looks more GFSy than CMCy:

[Carvers Gap]

In the LR, looks like the trend is to retain the Aleutian high.  Still a long way out there, and modeling looks out of sync with their MJO plots.  GEPS took a step to the GEFS at 12z - though certainly not extreme as the GEFS.  So, for now looks like we have a window for winter weather with the front that passes through, then a strong warm-up, and then TBD around the 10th.

[Carvers Gap]

Check that...looks more like an AK block with some AH high mixed in....

[Carvers Gap]

So looking at both the GEFS and GEPS finish their runs after 300.  Both show a cold pattern at 500 for much of the US between the Rockies and the Apps.  That looks more like their MJO plots.  Just wanted to add that addendum.  The GEFS looks more like the EPS now(which was a good look at 0z).   Maybe another cold shot around the 10th.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

WRT the late weekend system, it looks like the Euro is going to be pretty GFS-like. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I was going to say GFS like and "lite," but I actually think it is going to end up better on this run. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here are all the pretty Euro colors:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Pivotal was first with accum. maps so here is the Kuchera map:

[Carvers Gap]

Euro looks a lot like the cmc at 500 and GFS for the 3rd storm...best of both worlds.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro doesn't feed back with the western slp(off the coast of California).  Overall, good look from that run.  We will see what the ensemble says.....

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS members for through 7 days:

 

 

Control:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

We will see what the ensemble says.....

So far it looks like it wants to send the Alaska/ Aleutians ridge packing:

[tnweathernut]

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

So far it looks like it wants to send the Alaska/ Aleutians ridge packing:

If we could strengthen the ridging around Hudson Bay, it would be almost perfect.  As it it, it looks pretty good.  I like seeing the SE ridge go away.

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

So far it looks like it wants to send the Alaska/ Aleutians ridge packing:

Through roughly 300, it has kind of doubled down on its look....consistent with its MJO look as well.  BIG, BIG difference is the AH is basically gone when compared to other ensembles.

[Carvers Gap]

Good thing...the EPS is at the point of the season where it begins to have lots of weight.  If the tables were turned and we were in a cold pattern that the GEFS was continuing and the EPS turned warm...which one would you think might have the most chance of being right?

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS is bound and determined to flip the PNA pattern.  Whether that occurs or not,  I give it an "A+" for the effort.   In all seriousness, looks like the 12z CFSv2 and GEFS leaned towards the EPS...correct or not?  Again, the irony of the EPS is that it is now a +PNA/-EPO pattern after 300.  Take a look at the surface temps...cold is cutting under those 500 heights.

[Carvers Gap]

LOL.  That is a legit EPO/PNA ridge at 354.  Models are all over the place this suite.  Not sure which one my money is one(probably wise to take the warmest), but I hope the EPS is on to something and not on something!  

[Carvers Gap]

@John1122, that is your pattern, man, on the EPS after 300.  

[John1122]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

@John1122, that is your pattern, man, on the EPS after 300.  

I love a great Pacific set up. Also very interested in the next weekend event with the Euro on board. Sure it will change 100 times between now and then on the various models but I like that all are keying on a near valley wide event. Models often struggle with the pattern after storms and once they pass things become more clear. Will have to see if that is the case with the GFS being so variable from run to run. The event this coming weekend is no surprise, as I'm going to Chattanooga for New Years and it's rare that there isn't at least a snow threat on models when I go there in a winter month.

[tnweathernut]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@John1122, that is your pattern, man, on the EPS after 300.  

All this and Mr. Bob (who is lurking) hasn't shot down a flip yet.  That alone is promising.......... lol

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

I love a great Pacific set up. Also very interested in the next weekend event with the Euro on board. Sure it will change 100 times between now and then on the various models but I like that all are keying on a near valley wide event. Models often struggle with the pattern after storms and once they pass things become more clear. Will have to see if that is the case with the GFS being so variable from run to run. The event this coming weekend is no surprise, as I'm going to Chattanooga for New Years and it's rare that there isn't at least a snow threat on models when I go there in a winter month.

well if there is any threat for snow in Tennessee, that is definitely a way to escape it.  Just ask @nrgjeff.   Hoping we see the shakeup in the Pacific.  Would be a nice break from the consistency of the AH recently.

[Carvers Gap]

11 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

All this and Mr. Bob (who is lurking) hasn't shot down a flip yet.  That alone is promising.......... lol

Either that or they are just letting us all go play in the backyard for a bit to get some energy out, and then will call us in for dinner when gets out of hand.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I love a great Pacific set up. Also very interested in the next weekend event with the Euro on board. Sure it will change 100 times between now and then on the various models but I like that all are keying on a near valley wide event. Models often struggle with the pattern after storms and once they pass things become more clear. Will have to see if that is the case with the GFS being so variable from run to run. The event this coming weekend is no surprise, as I'm going to Chattanooga for New Years and it's rare that there isn't at least a snow threat on models when I go there in a winter month.

The great Chattanooga teleconnection.  Like clockwork.  

[nrgjeff]

We'll go storm chasing if you're here through the weekend. 

48 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

well if there is any threat for snow in Tennessee, that is definitely a way to escape it.  Just ask @nrgjeff.   Hoping we see the shakeup in the Pacific.  Would be a nice break from the consistency of the AH recently.

I will opine on the January cold after forecasting Wednesday and weekend severe. Feeling the latter gets muddled with Arctic air in the equation. Wednesday on the other hand features a spring-like stalled boundary.

[CG2]

As a reminder this is Carvers Gap, hence the CG and the orange 2.  I use this when I need more space for attachments.   This is my ghost account.  LOL.  Weeklies for Jan...well, really 30 day temp map centered after the first two days of Jan.  Anytime we see seasonal temps for Jan accompanied by seasonal to slightly above precip....we take.  I will swing by in a bit to comment more.  Keep in mind this is derived from the 0z run. The 12z looked even better.