Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

So somebody remind me, does this eruption help us?  It is the high latitude ones which are a "non starter" in terms of a temporary global downturn in temps.  Seems like high latitude makes it a lot warmer and lower latitudes cool things significantly for 3-5 years.  Either way, I hope the folks near that eruption are ok

[John1122]

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

So somebody remind me, does this eruption help us?  It is the high latitude ones which are a "non starter" in terms of a temporary global downturn in temps.  Seems like high latitude makes it a lot warmer and lower latitudes cool things significantly for 3-5 years.  Either way, I hope the folks near that eruption are ok

I would think that this one being an under the ocean eruption it probably didn't release as much ash and sulfur into the atmosphere as an eruption of that size otherwise would have. It was comparable in size to Mount Pinatubo which cooled global temps half a C.

[jaxjagman]

NINA seems to be dying out quicker than i thought it would the SOI the last few days is acting more like a NINO now.The MJO going back into the Westen Pac .looks warmish  towards the end of the month

 

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
15 Jan 2022	1007.03	1007.60	-24.40	3.32	7.51
14 Jan 2022	1008.50	1005.95	-9.70	4.71	8.00
13 Jan 2022	1011.05	1005.35	5.14	5.64	8.43
12 Jan 2022	1013.14	1008.60	-0.32	6.01	8.61
11 Jan 2022	1011.99	1008.45	-5.04	6.46	8.80
10 Jan 2022	1007.84	1008.35	-24.11	7.04	9.02
9 Jan 2022	1007.02	1008.30	-27.74	8.33	9.43
8 Jan 2022	1008.45	1008.65	-22.65	9.56	9.77
7 Jan 2022	1011.09	1008.10	-7.63	10.53	9.97

[John1122]

Canadian with next weekends system. GFS looked like this at 18z but is suppressed at 0z. 

[Bigbald]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Canadian with next weekends system. GFS looked like this at 18z but is suppressed at 0z. 

Nice little NW jog, hopefully not too many more of these.  

[John1122]

Euro managed to creep west with the next potential event. Still buries NC but has a 3-6+ from the West side of the Plateau East to the mountains. Super cold, high ratio snow if it happens like it was shown.

[Carvers Gap]

For those living in E TN, modeling as we kind of guessed...moved westward overnight with the exception of the GFS.  The 0z CMC and Euro both have a significant winter storm signal next week from E TN into the Piedmont.  All ensembles have the system to some extent.  

[Icy Hot]

6 hours ago, John1122 said:

Euro managed to creep west with the next potential event. Still buries NC but has a 3-6+ from the West side of the Plateau East to the mountains. Super cold, high ratio snow if it happens like it was shown.

Perhaps redemption for E TN???

[Bigbald]

6z gfs suppresses most the storm action but my god it's cold.  Ktri basically stays below freezing from around hr 110 till near the 384 hr mark.

[Jed33]

25 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

For those living in E TN, modeling as we kind of guessed...moved westward overnight with the exception of the GFS.  The 0z CMC and Euro both have a significant winter storm signal next week from E TN into the Piedmont.  All ensembles have the system to some extent.  

Wow! I know the gfs doesn’t have the greatest storm signal for next week, but snow or not, that is about as impressive of a winter pattern modeled that I’ve ever laid eyes on! Wow! Almost unbelievable 

[Silas Lang]

Wow, lots of potential in the next few weeks. We could potential get some snow with snow still on the ground, which I love. The mark of a good winter. 

[Matthew70]

I hope it’s not cold & dry for middle TN but it sure looks that way.  Par for course unfortunately.

[Bigbald]

14 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I hope it’s not cold & dry for middle TN but it sure looks that way.  Par for course unfortunately.

Per what model run? What deterministic measure are you using?

[Matthew70]

30 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

Per what model run? What deterministic measure are you using?

Yes it can change quickly but as of now the middle & west part of state is looking mostly dry & cold. A lot of times if air is to cold.  It pushes the storms to south of area. I sure hope that changes.  

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS now has the storm this weekend for E TN as does the CMC.  Not a thing is nailed down with this storm.  Not sure modeling is correctly even jumping on the right piece of energy yet.  So, what looked like agreement this morning is anything but at 12z that said, both models have a system this weekend, just differing days.  Looks like a good chance for eastern parts of the forum area to finally see something trackable.

[Jed33]

Both also have a clipper overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Man no rest for the weary! Haha!

[Bigbald]

Starting to get run to run consistency with the cold that follows, boy it turns cold and stays cold again on the CMC and GFS.  

[jaxjagman]

Euro did a big flip flop i'd say,from a crud look to a rather nice one.There is a trough going trough East Asia today.Might be a period to watch closely anyways

[John1122]

18z GFS should perk some ears and eyes. 

Anafrontal gives a good shot mid week, small clipper gives snow showers to the east on Friday. Huge storm pops on the weekend and really hits the southern areas. 24 hr map for a week from now. There are two other snow maps before this one, Friday being minor. 

[Carvers Gap]

Good look next weekend.  So far it has been disappearing and reappearing on different days of different models.  GFS and CMC have been consistent today with the look.  The Euro totally lost it.  Guessing they are sniffing something out.  Finally, we have room for this to come northwest in E TN.  Would be interesting if precip bridged the gap between the TR system and Sunday.   

[jaxjagman]

Seems like this could be a big deal upcoming,hard to predict Kelvin Waves this far out ,But the CFS

[Carvers Gap]

That Euro control map which I posted a few days ago....The 18z GFS has a very similar look after d10.  Temps below zero all of the way into Alabama and Georgia.    

[Carvers Gap]

This 18z GFS happy hour run may be one for the digital snow record books.....

[jaxjagman]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That Euro control map which I posted a few days ago....The 18z GFS has a very similar look after d10.  Temps below zero all of the way into Alabama and Georgia.    

Also signs the AO could possibly tank with a possible +PNA,see what it shows the next couple days

[Carvers Gap]

For posterity....posterity and storm track reference.  Subtract ~4.5 for this storm at TRI.

 

 

[PowellVolz]

For posterity....posterity and storm track reference.  Subtract ~4.5 for this storm at TRI.


 
 

.

[John1122]

20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

For posterity....posterity and storm track reference.  Subtract ~4.5 for this storm at TRI.

 

 

Thats a whole pack of all beef foot long Hebrew National. 

[John1122]

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

For posterity....posterity and storm track reference.  Subtract ~4.5 for this storm at TRI.

 

 

Reminiscent of the Weeklies a few runs ago. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

North American MJO plots finally working again:

 

Euro on the other hand looks like it is trying to reload:

[Carvers Gap]

43 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Also signs the AO could possibly tank with a possible +PNA,see what it shows the next couple days

MJO map looks muy bueno.