Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Wurbus]

That was a cold GFS run. It was below normal temps from 180 to the end of the run.

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z EPS control run wins the award for coldest run of the year.  TRI barely makes it above zero on this particular run for this particular day.  Temps the next night(after this hour) over the TRI region drop to -10 to -15F.  Those temps would push for record lows.  Now, this is just one map, but it does exemplify what can happen with so much cold waiting in the wings and a 500 pattern which supports it.  Models are showing some hints of the colder pattern breaking down right at the end of the month, but could be a cold couple of weeks getting to that point.  The ensemble snow runs are pretty massive.

 

[nrgjeff]

I think low temps in the 11-15 day will get down around 20 region average a couple days. Unless we get deep snowcover I don't see low teens. Note anything from this weekend will have melted off; so, it'd require another one.

February I still think is warmer than normal. MJO indeed is entering a favorable phase for January. Did it ever leave it? Anyway Indonesia convection is pushing into the West Pac... good for Jan.

However brand new storms are percolating far west Indian Ocean. When those reach phases 3-5 the -PNA should invade the Western US and allow the SER to re-establish in Feb.

[Carvers Gap]

18 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

I think low temps in the 11-15 day will get down around 20 region average a couple days. Unless we get deep snowcover I don't see low teens. Note anything from this weekend will have melted off; so, it'd require another one.

February I still think is warmer than normal. MJO indeed is entering a favorable phase for January. Did it ever leave it? Anyway Indonesia convection is pushing into the West Pac... good for Jan.

However brand new storms are percolating far west Indian Ocean. When those reach phases 3-5 the -PNA should invade the Western US and allow the SER to re-establish in Feb.

How big is the area for the regional average?   TRI has already been in the teens 4x this month w/ an average low of 27 to date, and that includes two really warm days to start(out of 12 days)....I would think(no guarantees) that the timeframe after the 20th potentially could yield some pretty low numbers here.  We have already hit 15 and 16 with just light snow cover.

Edit:  To define "pretty low," maybe low teens or slightly lower.  That looks like a really cold air mass.  If any storm to our east deepens, TRI can get pretty cold with those.  Potential is there for lower with a big system.  In 17-18, our rivers froze with no snowfall on the ground.

[Shocker0]

18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

How big is the area for the regional average?   TRI has already been in the teens 4x this month w/ an average low of 27 to date, and that includes two really warm days to start(out of 12 days)....I would think(no guarantees) that the timeframe after the 20th potentially could yield some pretty low numbers here.  We have already hit 15 and 16 with just light snow cover.

Edit:  To define "pretty low," maybe low teens or slightly lower.  That looks like a really cold air mass.  If any storm to our east deepens, TRI can get pretty cold with those.  Potential is there for lower with a big system.  In 17-18, our rivers froze with no snowfall on the ground.

Yep, we got down to 7 or 8 in Crossville over the weekend and the pipes burst at work. Not fun to cleanup. It's been colder than last January here for sure

[Vol Man]

52 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

How big is the area for the regional average?   TRI has already been in the teens 4x this month w/ an average low of 27 to date, and that includes two really warm days to start(out of 12 days)....I would think(no guarantees) that the timeframe after the 20th potentially could yield some pretty low numbers here.  We have already hit 15 and 16 with just light snow cover.

Edit:  To define "pretty low," maybe low teens or slightly lower.  That looks like a really cold air mass.  If any storm to our east deepens, TRI can get pretty cold with those.  Potential is there for lower with a big system.  In 17-18, our rivers froze with no snowfall on the ground.

Carver, did you see the FB post from WxSouth...Robert had some pretty ominous thoughts for energy for this weekend. I also saw JB post a very scary looking temp map for 24th...similar to what you referenced earlier.. I sort of expected to get a little warmer here leading up to this weekend's potential event...felt like it has stayed a little colder. Not sure how that relates, if at all, but starting from a lower base temp lately has to help some. Looking forward to tracking this thing. 

[Daniel Boone]

As I have mentioned on here before. We've officially recorded -20's for lows here and a minus 4 for a high twice. so, 0 this go around at some point seems a real possibility.

[nrgjeff]

My definition of regional temps is a 5-city average of Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and Huntsville. Not even close.

[Weathertree2]

Really  not liking the icing that the GFS  is depicting north of Nashville before the snow

[Carvers Gap]

29 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

My definition of regional temps is a 5-city average of Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and Huntsville. Not even close.

Yeah, thanks for the clarification.  That makes sense.  I know your definition of "region" is a bit different than mine.  LOL.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Vol Man said:

Carver, did you see the FB post from WxSouth...Robert had some pretty ominous thoughts for energy for this weekend. I also saw JB post a very scary looking temp map for 24th...similar to what you referenced earlier.. I sort of expected to get a little warmer here leading up to this weekend's potential event...felt like it has stayed a little colder. Not sure how that relates, if at all, but starting from a lower base temp lately has to help some. Looking forward to tracking this thing. 

Originally, the 13-15th looked a lot warmer from a distance on modeling.  50 is going to feel like a heat wave today.  Morning lows have been rough.  I use my own "hands are cold as crap while jogging" index.  LOL.  That index has been high.  I couldn't feel the tips of my fingers after running yesterday - could barely use my iPhone to check distance LOL.  

As for Robert, are you talking about his post about Raleigh to CLT to ATL?

I don't think I have seen the JB post about the 24th.  I will say the jet configuration is there for an Arctic outbreak.  No idea if that happens, but all it would take would be a deepening storm or just a strong front crashing through the Ohio Valley headed due south.   

 

[Mr. Kevin]

6 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

I think low temps in the 11-15 day will get down around 20 region average a couple days. Unless we get deep snowcover I don't see low teens. Note anything from this weekend will have melted off; so, it'd require another one.

February I still think is warmer than normal. MJO indeed is entering a favorable phase for January. Did it ever leave it? Anyway Indonesia convection is pushing into the West Pac... good for Jan.

However brand new storms are percolating far west Indian Ocean. When those reach phases 3-5 the -PNA should invade the Western US and allow the SER to re-establish in Feb.

Jeff, I hope the convection doesn't happen so we can keep the cold pattern going into February. Just being optimistic 

[John1122]

GFS is just incredibly dry after the storm this weekend. Tries to get something going in Texas but a 1040H drives straight to Dallas and smashes it. 

[Bigbald]

Late next week looks interesting.  12Z ICON and 12 CMC (see images below) both have a solid setup, 12z gfs is there but less robust.  

 

 

 

[John1122]

Canadian still has this one. 

[AMZ8990]

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

Canadian still has this one. 

It went crazy on the 6z run, big totals in SW Tn that run 

[Carvers Gap]

So, what we rally want to see in the eastern valley is a suppressed storm track, but just faint enough that the track still lifts the system northward.  Looks to me like Jan20-30th is the best shot(maybe the last shot?) this winter for the eastern valley.  February is not set in stone at this point by any means.  However, in terms of having deep cold available, this is likely the last time frame where we can tap winter time cold. Could the track be too suppressed?  Sure.  But the track has never really been so suppressed this year to the point systems have skirted completely below us in the east.  Systems have trended back northwest all winter.  So, that window looks good.  Plenty of energy.  I suspect, as the 6z GFS depicts, that the timeframe will be active and cold.  After that a period of moderation or pattern change.  Looks like another great winter or folks in the middle and western parts of the forum area.  They were well past due for a good stretch.  Very traditional storm track for La Ninas, and a good reminder that warm Decembers don't always equate to the rest of winter being warm.

[nrgjeff]

Agree with Carvers above. Southern stream energy is there. Just need a little wave to kick off a system. 

Plus I always favor getting the cold pattern in place first. Worry about a system later. Unless it's Jackson MS to Savanah GA. Oops!

[Bigbald]

That was a very sexy 12z Canadian run out through 240 with some major cold coming at the end.  Just a super active pattern with multiple threats and cold.

[Bigbald]

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

So, what we rally want to see in the eastern valley is a suppressed storm track, but just faint enough that the track still lifts the system northward.  Looks to me like Jan20-30th is the best shot(maybe the last shot?) this winter for the eastern valley.  February is not set in stone at this point by any means.  However, in terms of having deep cold available, this is likely the last time frame where we can tap winter time cold. Could the track be too suppressed?  Sure.  But the track has never really been so suppressed this year to the point systems have skirted completely below us in the east.  Systems have trended back northwest all winter.  So, that window looks good.  Plenty of energy.  I suspect, as the 6z GFS depicts, that the timeframe will be active and cold.  After that a period of moderation or pattern change.  Looks like another great winter or folks in the middle and western parts of the forum area.  They were well past due for a good stretch.  Very traditional storm track for La Ninas, and a good reminder that warm Decembers don't always equate to the rest of winter being warm.

There is so much going on in that jan 20-28 range that it is hard to keep up.  This has been an awesome 12z suite.

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, Bigbald said:

There is so much going on in that jan 20-28 range that it is hard to keep up.  This has been an awesome 12z suite.

If the 18z GFS and 12z CMC are right, we may be watching several storms...one every few days.  Hope that happens.  Will be fun.

[Bigbald]

The period of next weekend continues to look intriguing.  12z CMC drops a 1050 high out of Montana and suppresses a storm just to our south, although Chattanooga would get scraped.  Prior 12z cmc run had this compromise I think, although the storm was more modest.

 

After that it's pipe bursting cold.  Suppose the high is a little weaker and the cold front a little slower it would be a great setup for alot of us, from my novice eyes (paging Carver). 

 

Edit to add: could Miami really get that cold?

 

[Icy Hot]

1 hour ago, Bigbald said:

The period of next weekend continues to look intriguing.  12z CMC drops a 1050 high out of Montana and suppresses a storm just to our south, although Chattanooga would get scraped.  Prior 12z cmc run had this compromise I think, although the storm was more modest.

 

After that it's pipe bursting cold.  Suppose the high is a little weaker and the cold front a little slower it would be a great setup for alot of us, from my novice eyes (paging Carver). 

 

Edit to add: could Miami really get that cold?

 

But it's the CMC...

 

[Bigbald]

42 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

But it's the CMC...

 

I feel like there is some support for it, 12z Euro has the storm, I think the last few icon runs has as well, most modeling has shown it off and on the last 3-4 days.  I think Candadian jumped on it first.  Let's see if it moves toward run to run consistency but I like it.

[Bigbald]

3 hours ago, Bigbald said:

I feel like there is some support for it, 12z Euro has the storm, I think the last few icon runs has as well, most modeling has shown it off and on the last 3-4 days.  I think Candadian jumped on it first.  Let's see if it moves toward run to run consistency but I like it.

18z GFS picks up storm, similiar positioning as others, brings in the bitter cold after it but not as deep as CMC.  Great agreement amongst the models sans the finer details.

[Wurbus]

Just catching up on the 12z and 18z models today. Looks like the potential for a great pattern over the next couple weeks. I saw this storm on member 2 of the GEFS, would be really something if the gulf states saw some snow like that, but just shows the potential of the pattern.

[John1122]

Storms seem to repeat some years. Looks like next weekend is a prime chance for a nice event. The GFS has it. The Euro is suppressed to the south and east of here but Nina climo would suggest just enough Atlantic Ridge to nudge it back our way. If we can cash in tomorrow and get that one, it would be epic.  It's great seeing multiple threats of snow inside D10 in the heart of winter. It doesn't get any better outside a nice Christmas snow. 

QBO dropping in winter is magic. 

[Carvers Gap]

Also, some of those super cold temps are showing up during the next two weeks.  While we have been tracking this storm, the medium and LR has loaded up.

[jaxjagman]

That is wild

[ShawnEastTN]

That is wild

My PWS recorded the shockwave, Tellico and Blunder report theirs did too. Pretty awesome!

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