Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Wurbus]

CMC is running and it doesn't look good. Low is over Memphis at 102. Looks similar to other OP models at this point

[fountainguy97]

lol

 

[John1122]

7 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

CMC is running and it doesn't look good. Low is over Memphis at 102. Looks similar to other OP models at this point

It's basically exactly like it was last night at 0z.

[Vol4Life]

Interested to see where the Euro goes...running right now

[PowellVolz]

.

[John1122]

Euro is similar/slightly slower than 00z. Low in Central Miss at 90 vs West Central Alabama at 102 at 00z.

[Carvers Gap]

In other news, the 12z Euro held serve.

[John1122]

Heavy snow and sleet by 96 from 40n and along the Plateau all the way down to the Alabama border.

[John1122]

Another major winter storm state wide almost on the Euro, crippling winter storm East of the Apps with monster freezing rain totals likely and heavy snow as well.

[John1122]

Low popped near Myrtle Beach with snow over most of the Eastern 2/3rds of the forum area at this hour.

[Carvers Gap]

I mean the Euro barely(and I mean barely budged).  It might even be further east around Hatteras than 0z. 

[Carvers Gap]

Lots of ice/mix over TRI on that Euro run.

[Wurbus]

So Dr. No and UKMet are the only ones saying yes at this point?

[Carvers Gap]

Still plenty of snow falling at 111 over NE TN.

[Carvers Gap]

There is way more snow in E TN.  Snow falls almost through 120.

[EastTNWeatherAdmirer]

Synoptically the Euro honestly looks somewhat like the GEFS midday run

[John1122]

11 inches, plus some heavy sleet imby that Euro run. Has a 6 hour period of .75 inches of qpf falling as frozen for me.

[Vol4Life]

This is out to 114

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

This is out to 114

LOL.  There is more....

[John1122]

5 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

So Dr. No and UKMet are the only ones saying yes at this point?

The Euro, UKIE, GEFS, and somewhat the ICON are in the major winter weather camp, as of the 12z suite so far. Will see soon what the EPS/Control say.

[Carvers Gap]

It is not often that I get to share 1' totals form a model deemed "Dr. No" while the rest of the models say, "No."  I have low confidence in this map.  It needs some support outside of the UK.

 

[EastTNWeatherAdmirer]

Here is just about snowfall from the entire storm. We get so caught up in these winter storms and it's easy to get fooled with how terrible the models have been doing but imagine it's winter in Jan 2017, 2018, 2019, or 2020 and someone showed us the Euro's exact 12z weather map. I think we'd go nuts over it. Models have gotten worse and maybe when the threat of winter storms move in we are so caught up in the models we forget how we long for snow around thanksgiving every year lol.

[tnweathernut]

I am not sure I remember a year when Nashville recorded two 7+" snows.  If it happened, was probably back in the 1800s.  Chattanooga snow hole checks out, as do the downslope areas coming up the valley.  Now if it were only 24 hours away.

[Wurbus]

I just created a topic for this storm since it seems we will be tracking it for the next few days and we would stop cluttering this thread.

[Vol4Life]

5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I am not sure I remember a year when Nashville recorded two 7+" snows.  If it happened, was probably back in the 1800s.  Chattanooga snow hole checks out, as do the downslope areas coming up the valley.  Now if it were only 24 hours away.

Do you know what the official measurement from BNA was for the last storm?

[Weathertree2]

2 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

Do you know what the official measurement from BNA was for the last storm?

6.3"

[Weathertree2]

2 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

Do you know what the official measurement from BNA was for the last storm?

We would  be in  rare  territory if that occurred for sure 

[tnweathernut]

18 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

Do you know what the official measurement from BNA was for the last storm?

I should change my post, appears they officially recorded 6.3" of snow.  I don't remember the last time there were 2 six inch snows in one winter either.  Can't find an official measurement for January 3rd, but they received between 1 and 2.9" across the city that day.  Quite the winter run for our friends in the mid state!

[Carvers Gap]

Let us not discount how cold the 12z GEFS is.  Crazy cold. 

[nrgjeff]

Read discussions from NC, Virginia and West Virginia offices. Even that far north they are worried about warm nose / boundary later west of the Apps and east of the Blue Ridge. High press off the Coast, rather than Great Lakes. Even the snowy Euro has surface temps well above freezing.

Honestly I'm already telling friends and family Chattanooga all rain 100% confidence. This is one of those systems that could sharply disappoint even Middle Tennessee west of the Plateau. West Tenn could pull off a miracle while it's still positive tilt clipper characteristics. Once it goes negative tilt the warm nose becomes a threat. Also east winds downslope off the Plateau Mid-Tenn. Great Valley pain east. 

All this said, I-40 north could get sticking snow. Kentucky should get several inches of snow. Upper Plateau looks good. TRI could be fine back side. The more I look for work (not just being cynical) the more I think this is setting up for major disappointment.