Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[fountainguy97]

Every storm is different but we do often see models "overtrend" in this 4-6 day period and then tick back in the last few days. that's how a lot of NW trends happen. Models dig too much and then tick backwards. This could be a reverse case.  Or it could keep going NW haha

 

i have to say the GFS has steadily moved NW over the last EIGHT runs.  That is one of the longest and most consistent trends I've ever seen from any storm. 8 ticks in a row. It has to stop somewhere right?

[fountainguy97]

31 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

For me I've sent the punt team out on the field. If it was only the GFS Op acting goofy would be one thing, but as WPC/Carvers/Webb/etc have noted...the snowy solution is losing the GEFs/EPS/CMC ensembles. The SLP can track however it wants, but 850 track has continuously got worse each suite across all modeling

I'm still seeing some say they favor ensembles but.... overnight the ensembles have come toward the OPs in a big way. We are inside 5 days and touching 4.  The OPs are more relevant now than ensembles imo.

 

 

edit: it's also super obvious as I believe Webb mentioned on Twitter that the GFS OP has higher resolution than its ensembles.  It led the ensembles into this NW trend.

[PowellVolz]

Every storm is different but we do often see models "overtrend" in this 4-6 day period and then tick back in the last few days. that's how a lot of NW trends happen. Models dig too much and then tick backwards. This could be a reverse case.  Or it could keep going NW haha
 
i have to say the GFS has steadily moved NW over the last EIGHT runs.  That is one of the longest and most consistent trends I've ever seen from any storm. 8 ticks in a row. It has to stop somewhere right?

GFS is basically on its own and I don’t think anyone is really considering it an option right now. It didn’t handle the path of the last storm well at all. Its track on the last storm for 3-4 days prior didn’t move and ended up wrong.

Edit: I’ll say I’m not really considering it instead of saying “anyone”.

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[PowellVolz]

I'm still seeing some say they favor ensembles but.... overnight the ensembles have come toward the OPs in a big way. We are inside 5 days and touching 4.  The OPs are more relevant now than ensembles imo.
 
 
edit: it's also super obvious as I believe Webb mentioned on Twitter that the GFS OP has higher resolution than its ensembles.  It led the ensembles into this NW trend.

Webb’s last tweet is the one that bothers me. If what he thinks is true then we have a problem.


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[Carvers Gap]

6z EPS was weaker and less northward with its slp.  Yeah, if the CMC/GFS stay with a hybrid MillerB and the Euro continues to trend that way, definitely time to send the punt team out.  For now, I am having to call a fourth down timeout on a short yardage situation at midfield. The 6z EPS does have more members trending to the hybridB track, but the surface reflection was weaker which blunted the warm air advection into our region.  The control run looked similar to 0z.  A weaker system might be a good counter balance to the overall track.  

Oddly, feels weird to see a more progressive system on the Euro and a more wrapped up system on the GFS(now the CMC).  Going to wait for trends at 12z and 0z before throwing in the towel.  Sometimes TRI can get some snow out of these set-ups if the transfer is early(but to the southeast of where it is now), and the storm is inside Hatteras.  It is inside Hatteras for sure on modeling, but the slp reforms too late to help on the GFS/CMC.  I said earlier we need a later transfer.  Probably is more accurate to say we need an earlier transfer to a slp in southern Georgia and an initial slp which doesn't get overly strong and plow into the TN Valley.

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z CMC looks almost identical at 0z to the GFS.  Most ensembles are trending towards a more hybrid-B.  I wish the GFS didn't have support, but it has the lion's share right now.  I definitely consider the GFS a plausible option as nearly every model is trending towards it, including and especially ensembles.  The problem right now is I think the GFS has a bias with being overly amped, and has been so for most of January for our region.  I think some sort of handoff is highly likely.  The question is whether the GFS is over-doing it, and it might be.  The bigger concern is the GFS has been a step ahead of the Euro during January, just have to take into account it juicing-up these storms.  Right now that extra strength makes a world of difference for those along I40 and north.  

[Carvers Gap]

Trends at 0z are important.  I don't think we will see modeling step back towards a major hit.  

25 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

I'm still seeing some say they favor ensembles but.... overnight the ensembles have come toward the OPs in a big way. We are inside 5 days and touching 4.  The OPs are more relevant now than ensembles imo.

Agree on all points.  I do hold out a glimmer of hope as the Euro op at 6z looked more favorable in terms of location and wasn't as wrapped up.  EPS has more members going hybridB though the mean also  looked weaker which we need.  That is the first time during several runs in which I have seen modeling hiccup.

[Carvers Gap]

Just digging around while waiting on 12z.  When I first started following modeling, if I saw a d8-14 that looked like that, I was pretty excited - BN temps and AN precip w/ a great looking storm track.  We may not get anything or we may do well...but tough to draw up a winter pattern better than that.  Also, here is the analog package which was released yesterday.  1994 stands out.  Some cold/stormy analogs in that package.

 

 

 

[fountainguy97]

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Trends at 0z are important.  I don't think we will see modeling step back towards a major hit.  

Agree on all points.  I do hold out a glimmer of hope as the Euro op at 6z looked more favorable in terms of location and wasn't as wrapped up.  EPS has more members going hybridB though the mean also  looked weaker which we need.  That is the first time during several runs in which I have seen modeling hiccup.

Definitely still hope. But some GEFS at 06z actually never even transfer really. Just a gut punch up the spine of the apps. The gfs may not be insanely out there in la-la land 

[tnweathernut]

It's obvious there are two camps this am, but the ensembles tells me there's a great degree of uncertainty between those two camps at this point.  As long as you set your expectation level low, it's pretty easy to take the swings (or in this case, Sherman's march to the northwest).  Just a hunch, but I think the trend stops at 12z and moves back toward something weaker as shown on the 6z Euro.

[EastTNWeatherAdmirer]

One thing that might be helpful in tracking this next system when questioning how far the precipitation shield sets up northwest and where the surface low goes is: remembering what models nailed the last system on January 6th. When tracking the January 5th/6th storm I remember the SREF model blend caught the trend over KY and WV the earliest and consequently some of the NAM runs followed. With this upcoming event, I like what I am seeing on the SREF if u want snow in East Tn. While it doesn't go out far enough to know for sure, on the SREF the snow rapidly diminished over far western Tennessee and Arkansas at the ends of its period. This implies that a transfer of energy and a secondary low would be developing near the gulf coast. I expect the NAM to come on board with the Euro at some point over the next 24 hours.

[Carvers Gap]

15 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

It's obvious there are two camps this am, but the ensembles tells me there's a great degree of uncertainty between those two camps at this point.  As long as you set your expectation level low, it's pretty easy to take the swings (or in this case, Sherman's march to the northwest).  Just a hunch, but I think the trend stops at 12z and moves back toward something weaker as shown on the 6z Euro.

 

26 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Definitely still hope. But some GEFS at 06z actually never even transfer really. Just a gut punch up the spine of the apps. The gfs may not be insanely out there in la-la land 

Agree on all counts, but will add that I am in the camp that wants snow.  LOL.  

[EastTNWeatherAdmirer]

I think I'm just gonna put all these silly models aside and go with the CFS. It is really good in the short-range.

*sarcasm*

[nrgjeff]

Warm nose will win. No surface high. Next?

MJO convection is fixin' to push east from Indonesia and recharge the West Pac. That at least keeps the SE US cold.

[EastTNWeatherAdmirer]

In everyone's experience with modelling on here, has anyone noticed if the GFS or Euro handle Upper Level Lows better? If the GFS is incorrect with the northwest trend, it will probably be due to poor handling with the ULL while better handling of the ULL may allow the Euro to come to fruition. Most of middle and East TN don't see much snow on the 12z GFS because it has the ULL slowing down and getting momentarily stuck over western KY allowing WAA over N AL and MIDDLE TN. If the GFS is known to handle ULL's well, then this may be a plausible outcome however it may also be possible that the GFS isn't phasing the ULL enough to reality like the Euro is suggesting. The fate of the storm may lie in the nature of the ULL.

Here are the key differences between the 12z gfs and 00z euro...

[Bigbald]

I've never felt less enthused about a 8-12 inch snow map for IMBY than I do right now. 

 

[John1122]

15 minutes ago, EastTNWeatherAdmirer said:

In everyone's experience with modelling on here, has anyone noticed if the GFS or Euro handle Upper Level Lows better? If the GFS is incorrect with the northwest trend, it will probably be due to poor handling with the ULL while better handling of the ULL may allow the Euro to come to fruition. Most of middle and East TN don't see much snow on the 12z GFS because it has the ULL slowing down and getting momentarily stuck over western KY allowing WAA over N AL and MIDDLE TN. If the GFS is known to handle ULL's well, then this may be a plausible outcome however it may also be possible that the GFS isn't phasing the ULL enough to reality like the Euro is suggesting. The fate of the storm may lie in the nature of the ULL.

Here are the key differences between the 12z gfs and 00z euro...

I honestly feel it's too early to tell either way still. The feature that forms the 50/50 that suppresses the system to whatever extent it gets there, is still somewhere in Western Canada I believe. It's location and strength will tell the tale here. I expect model madness until Friday or later with how it goes here.

[Carvers Gap]

12z GEFS is a slop-fest in NE TN.  The 500 pattern argues that the cold should be scoured out, and it would be rain here.  Cold just hangs on forever in NE TN and SW VA.  Not sure that is actually what happens.  A lot of times modeling will erroneously bleed cold air into TRI.  Verbatim it is is snow to sleet to rain.  One note, the 12z GFS is slightly colder across NE TN and SW VA.  @Daniel Boone what do you think?

[Vol4Life]

From Southeast Forum...Ukie

[Wurbus]

I'll say there are more big dogs for East TN on the GEFS that I thought there was going to be. I feel like this system is truly a boom or bust system though and will likely be more of a bust for most of us.

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z GEFS is a slop-fest in NE TN.  The 500 pattern argues that the cold should be scoured out, and it would be rain here.  Cold just hangs on forever in NE TN and SW VA.  Not sure that is actually what happens.  A lot of times modeling will erroneously bleed cold air into TRI.  Verbatim it is is snow to sleet to rain.  One note, the 12z GFS is slightly colder across NE TN and SW VA.  @Daniel Boone what do you think?

Ive noticed that with the GFS. Odd too that it went from almost always showing a snowhole to the opposite.!. Really strange.

      If an arctic airmass were dropping down ahead of it and was retreating, ala., Feb. 21, 2015 I can see this outcome. There is one other time something similar did happen and there wasn't an arctic mass involved. Dec. 5, 2002. The lp actually was in western Ky. The cad areas got slammed as that lp transferred to off vbeach. I lived in Jonesville then and it began snowing at 9. A.m. with the temp 32. It came down heavy b4 changing to rain around 1. Measured 5 inches.

[tnweathernut]

5 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

From Southeast Forum...Ukie

Used to be when the Euro and UK were in lockstep with each other 3-4 days out you could go ahead and dust off your snow shovel.

 

[PowellVolz]

From Southeast Forum...Ukie

You know we are struggling when we are posting the UK. It’s pretty though


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[Vol4Life]

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

You know we are struggling when we are posting the UK. It’s pretty though


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GFS ensemble isn’t bad either...I’d take this in a heartbeat!

[nrgjeff]

Honestly the GFS is better than the Euro at sniffing out a warm nose disaster. 

That said I'll take some more Ukie. Hey the British Pound is stronger than the US Dollar or Euro right now. Currencies method? 

In all seriousness, I'm preparing for cold rain KCHA. Might as well go 0-3 and the strike-out.

[fountainguy97]

9 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

GFS ensemble isn’t bad either...I’d take this in a heartbeat!

This is actually the best mean for most of TN and KY the gefs has spit out so far.  For TN it will come down to how much moisture is associated with the ULL and first low. When the transfer happens we dry up fast besides some back side snow showers. The 12z GEFS has a significant increase in snow across TN Sunday morning.  Fingers crossed that ends up being the case. I'd rather not sit in a dry slot for 30 hrs haha.

 

EDIT: Honestly, we arnt in a terrible spot to make something out of seemingly a disaster trend.  The EURO is still south. and GFS is very north.  I'll take us being in the middle of those two at this point any day of the week. We wont be looking at a gnarly foot+ across the state but we could see another large swath of 6-7 inches if the cards shake out right.

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Honestly the GFS is better than the Euro at sniffing out a warm nose disaster. 

That said I'll take some more Ukie. Hey the British Pound is stronger than the US Dollar or Euro right now. Currencies method? 

In all seriousness, I'm preparing for cold rain KCHA. Might as well go 0-3 and the strike-out.

Maybe your second batter will do better, but knowing the plight of Chattanooga..... I won't hold my breath.

[Carvers Gap]

Appears the CMC is "broke down"(poor grammar noted...but used anyway).  LOL. 

[Carvers Gap]

From Pivotal:

(12 Jan 2022) GDPS and RDPS maps may be delayed or missing due to data feed problems at Environment Canada.

[John1122]

I wonder if that will affect the next few runs of all models. I believe energy from the system that forms the 50/50 is somewhere in Canada now. Not sure what the data feed might be or if it's entirely computer based.