Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I don't believe any of it right now. I've never seen a storm move in a steep V pattern like that, then just ramble around for a long time while transferring from Nashville to Charlotte. 

I expect it'll be Friday before we have a good idea and maybe not then. 

Yeah. I agree. There's really no mechanism to cause that. A cutoff low or a very rare Appalachian Storm instance, yeah. But, not this setup. Doesn't make sense.

[TellicoWx]

Feast or famine on the GEFS...mean doesn't tell whole story, some huge members in there

[TellicoWx]

0z GEFS

[John1122]

Canadian is similar to the GFS through 120. Just not as amped up and a bit further south with the transfer. 

As of the 00z runs, Western North Carolina is getting a massive winter storm, NW Tennessee has a very good shot, as does Western Kentucky. Outside of that, just gotta hope for the best. 

[TellicoWx]

A year or so ago I would have loved this map, but for what it's worth 0z Ukie

[John1122]

The UKIE finally left the extreme suppression camp. 

It's been bad all year but who knows. I still think the GFS is off but maybe not. Just too many crazy things on it you never see happening. 

[TellicoWx]

If you are in eastern valley and want to lift your spirits, look at the GFS LR clown map lol

[TellicoWx]

Only 34.7" at Andrews, NC lol

[TellicoWx]

It's banter, but that was one heck of an overall OP run

[Reb]

27 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

It's banter, but that was one heck of an overall OP run

That’s a weenie run if I’ve ever seen one. I mean just look at that snow axis 

[Stovepipe]

51 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

It's banter, but that was one heck of an overall OP run

WEENIE RUN!

WEENIE RUN!

[TellicoWx]

0z Euro is a mess...sleet/snow

[John1122]

The Euro control keeps firing bullets.. There's a 30 to 50 percent probability of greater than 6 inches of snow across a lot of areas in the state on the EPS probability map. 

[John1122]

Euro mean. It and the GEFS are pretty close to each other right now.

[Weathertree2]

53 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro control keeps firing bullets.. There's a 30 to 50 percent probability of greater than 6 inches of snow across a lot of areas in the state on the EPS probability map. 

Fair to say that someone is going to get plastered. Maybe by this time tomorrow models will have better handle

[Uncle Nasty]

It would be nice for this thing to somehow end up as a nice Miller A but as more data comes in it looks like the models are
"leaning" towards a Miller B. If a Miller B transpires that won't bode well for the southern valley. Maybe you more knowledgeable posters can chime in on that. We're still 4 days out so we all know anything can happen. NrgJeff, please help reel us a good one in for our area.
We need it!

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

[John1122]

I don't even know what to say about the 06z GFS. The low travels NE from the ArkLaTex to NE Miss, drops SSE to Central Alabama, jumps way back NW to West Tennessee, bombs to 999 north of Nashville then hands off to SE NC. It would be the weirdest surface track in the history of a Winter Storm. 

[Kasper]

9 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I don't even know what to say about the 06z GFS. The low travels NE from the ArkLaTex to NE Miss, drops SSE to Central Alabama, jumps way back NW to West Tennessee, bombs to 999 north of Nashville then hands off to SE NC. It would be the weirdest surface track in the history of a Winter Storm. 

Yep, I’ve never seen anything even remotely close to tracking like that, looks like it will be several interesting days watching models. I’m with @unclenasty a miller b is bad news for the valley! 

[John1122]

The GEFS moves the low from Texas to Central Mississippi,to Central Alabama, to S. Georgia/N. Florida, off the SC coast and up inside Hattaras. What we would expect with a big high dropping into the Upper Midwest behind and over the top of a storm and moving east above it. 

[John1122]

GEFS. MRX noted that they are currently favoring the ensembles as the OP is erratic. Right now it's the Euro/EPS/Control/UKIE/GEFS in one camp, and the GFS in another way out from them. The Canadian is sort of in between them. 

[John1122]

I vote someone start a thread for this after the 12z models. It may or may not be a snow event here but it's certainly dominating the pattern thread. Even if it doesn't work out it deserves its own focus area. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

One of the NC mountains folks just posted that there was a RECON plane sent to throw some dropsondes into the atmospheric river and it also threw some soundings at our energy for the weekend system. 

[Carvers Gap]

Trends over night are not the best.  Need this to begin trending the other way.  The 6z GEFS has a majority of its low placements moving into the TN River Valley.  The 0z EPS now has a much bigger cluster of lows (1/3) making a significant move northward over Alabama.  It had few, if any, at 12z yesterday.  Unless something changes drastically, I think we will see some sort of significant energy hand-off to the coast.   Just how much energy makes it into the TN Valley is open for debate.  For those in the eastern valley, we need that slp further south.  I have watched a lot of these hand-off type systems, often seems like they come further north than modeled in the eastern valley.   Maybe the recon plane will help models get some clarification.   For now, 2/3 of the global ensembles are generally depicting an elevation dependent event.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Not sure it will mean much in the long run, but the 6z Euro is a little bit more positively tilted, a little bit weaker with the energy, after it interacts a touch more with the upper low off of California. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looking at the 850s, it is allowing for a little better entrenchment of the cold air before the system and the surface low is a few millibars weaker at hour 90 of the 6z Euro. 

[Carvers Gap]

Good trend on the 6z EPS, the slp was smaller and not as far north.  The slp looked slightly less wrapped up on the 500mb vorticity map.  I would guess the handoff would have occurred later.  The run itself was warmer over most of the East than the previous run.

[Carvers Gap]

On a very positive note, the 6z GEFS/0z GEPS/0z EPS are showing a very cold pattern after the 20th.  That was a little in doubt a few days ago.   I guess with the sever cold being about ten days out...it is still in doubt.  LOL.  Depending on the timeframe, most show temps dropping 10-20F below normal.   That type of cold shot would likely place January below normal for temps at TRI despite having a +29 day to start the month and maybe a +17 day on the second.  If models are to be believed, we are potentially looking at an air mass of Arctic origin during after the 20th.  Below zero temps would be on the table depending on snow pack.  The 0z Euro control and 6z GFS are stone cold.

[Carvers Gap]

35 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looking at the 850s, it is allowing for a little better entrenchment of the cold air before the system and the surface low is a few millibars weaker at hour 90 of the 6z Euro. 

Agree.  Good trend for sure.  Euro trends are important.  Maybe the NW jog has stopped.  We are about to find out if the GFS has a tendency to be too wrapped up.

This may be the first of several storms to track if the the LR ensembles are correct.  Sometimes big storms end a pattern.  In this case, this may very well be beginning a 14-17 day cold snap.

[TellicoWx]

For me I've sent the punt team out on the field. If it was only the GFS Op acting goofy would be one thing, but as WPC/Carvers/Webb/etc have noted...the snowy solution is losing the GEFs/EPS/CMC ensembles. The SLP can track however it wants, but 850 track has continuously got worse each suite across all modeling

[PowellVolz]

I think mods are going to have a hard time until the 50/50 low gets established. Probably why the GFS is acting like that uncle you only see once a year between thanksgiving and Christmas who gets drunk and starts talking to his dog that’s asleep.


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