Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like the GEFS lows are about half north and half south:

With the mean a touch south of the OP.

[Save the itchy algae!]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think in the case of our area (specifically central parts of the eastern great valley), we want a low to pop around New Orleans or Mobile and make a run at Cape Hatteras. TBH we don't want any sort of a hand off, since even if it was cold, that would hurt any TROWL/ deform band as the hand off occurs. 

Well let’s hope this was just happy hour gfs doing it’s thing then.  It doesn’t come close to the gulf this run.

[Save the itchy algae!]

Not counting the 18z gfs, this has reminded me of the 4-corners lows that people in the plains love for big snows.  Interesting to see things shifted so far to the east.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here's a loop of the GEFS lows. The small lps and hps are members and the big Hs and Ls are the means:

 

 

 

[Bigbald]

Seems like GFS has projected overamped storms alot this year.  Could something like the 12z CMC be the middle of the road solution?  I really like the Canadian under 150 hrs and once it seems to lock into the solution it seems to do quite well. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

Seems like GFS has projected overamped storms alot this year.  Could something like the 12z CMC be the middle of the road solution?  I really like the Canadian under 150 hrs and once it seems to lock into the solution it seems to do quite well. 

TBH going back and looking at the 12z CMC it looks quite bit like the 18z GEFS with its slp placement. 

[fountainguy97]

GEFS mean going to be similar to 12z. GFS on the extreme northern end of its ensemble set.  It's pretty safe to not trust that 18z run based on GEFS.

 

edit: in fact 18z mean js better for TN

[Carvers Gap]

48 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

Would we need the handoff to happen sooner? Or would that just cause an apps runner?

Looks like the main system slowed down, allowed for more spacing between it and the Thursday night deal(which becomes the 50/50), and ultimately that spacing allowed it to come north/cut.  That 50/50 is needed to prevent the cut.  The spacing ultimately allowed it to move a hair north.   Ultimately on that run it models a crap ton of snow on folks to our east who canceled winter about a month ago.  LOL. It doesn't really affect the coastal low as the energy is going to form in the Panhandle it appears.  But when it cuts into the forum area, it just washes out thermal gradients.  I suspect we are highly likely going to deal with a handoff.  Of note, the GFS has been entirely too wound-up with the last two systems.  So, let's see where other modeling goes with this.  I mean, this storm may end up in Ohio before this is said and done (with those big moves today).  Lowering expectations on my part quickly!  

[Carvers Gap]

The thing about operationals right now...they will likely be catching trends before the ensembles.  The operational GFS caught the northwest jog on last weeks second system(edit) before all other modeling.  It just over-did precip.

[PowellVolz]

Man that was ugly


.

[Kasper]

Well I’m gonna head back over to  

after that run!

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, John1122 said:

The NAM is trying to give parts of TN, SE KY and SW Va an inch or two from the dry clipper that turns into the 50/50.

One of the local TV Mets said any accs would be above 4000 ft. Lol. 

    Even without the evaporative cooling theres more than likely going to be minor accs down to at least the 2500 ft level and quite possibly lower if qpf is greater than modeled with that first system in seky/swva.

[John1122]

GEFS Mean is still healthy most areas. We are still far enough out that the OP runs are gonna waffle. 06z or 12z, don't even remember right now, had me with bare ground almost. 18z has me with 8 inches. I believe Friday we will see things stabilize. The low will be climbing the coast by then. 

 

[Daniel Boone]

40 minutes ago, John1122 said:

GEFS Mean is still healthy most areas. We are still far enough out that the OP runs are gonna waffle. 06z or 12z, don't even remember right now, had me with bare ground almost. 18z has me with 8 inches. I believe Friday we will see things stabilize. The low will be climbing the coast by then. 

 

Exactly. Still several days out.

[John1122]

18z Euro Control. 

[TellicoWx]

There is a huge difference between the Euro and the GFS...Euro is almost vertically stacked (850 digs basically Jackson to Birmingham w/SLP in same general area)...GFS is further North along I40 w/SLP bouncing between the gulf and closer to the 850. While the prior system was night and day compared to the strength, the GFS performed the worst as far as accurately tracking the 850 (which played into it under estimating the warm nose/incorrectly modeling the moisture feed).

[dwagner88]

Stacking would be important to Valley folks. A more stacked system is less likely to reform off the SC/GA coast.

Edit: I don’t know why I capitalized Valley. I kinda like it. I’m keeping it.

[Daniel Boone]

21 minutes ago, John1122 said:

18z Euro Control. 

Has anyone noticed that after a system produces a snow hole of sorts with less snow and higher temps within that area, it seems the models reflect that the very next system it seems, lol. 

     Ktri stuck out like a sore thumb with the last system and it being the warm spot within the great Valley.

     Although a bit broadbrushed, check out that sore thumb on the Euro map. Lol

   Would say ds or coincidence but, Wise is within that...not very likely at all. 

     One epic warm/snowless hole  shouldn't cause that though..strange.

[Hurricaneguy]

49 minutes ago, John1122 said:

18z Euro Control. 

Why do these models hate East TN. I mean look at that lol

[TellicoWx]

Largest majority of 18z EPS members keep the system to our SE

[Vol4Life]

4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Largest majority of 18z EPS members keep the system to our SE

Do you mean that it keeps the Low to our SE or the whole system misses us?

[PowellVolz]

Do you mean that it keeps the Low to our SE or the whole system misses us?

Keeping the system to our SE for now is a good thing.


.

[TellicoWx]

18z EPS

[Daniel Boone]

24 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said:

Why do these models hate East TN. I mean look at that lol

Alot has to do with the model ingest system. Official Weather Station Data goes into them. We'll use KTRI for instance. It has produced warmer, drier conditions overall for the last couple weeks than areas surrounding it. That is being ingested and therefore reflected. The more that occurs, the more pronounced on the Models. They also use Topography amongst other initialized data and input.

     I think the Weather Station ingested data is obvious.

[Carvers Gap]

18z EPS looks good in terms of slp locations.  Oddly, it is the 12z GEPS(Canadian) which has several members cutting west of the Apps and then handing off.  

[Kentucky]

 

[Wurbus]

GFS was a mess. Mostly cold rain for everyone while the low meandered around TN for 24 hours while transferring to the coast. Extreme NE TN is about the only winners around here.

[John1122]

GFS is about the same as 18z. Big front end thump for Eastern areas north of 40 and northwestern areas get clobbered. The mid-state gets rained on for the most part. 

 

[Daniel Boone]

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

GFS is about the same as 18z. Big front end thump for Eastern areas north of 40 and northwestern areas get clobbered. The mid-state gets rained on for the most part. 

 

Yeah, if that 12 to 15 heavy wet snow did occur here. Lights out for sure.

      Can u believe western KY ?!

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, if that 12 to 15 heavy wet snow did occur here. Lights out for sure.

      Can u believe western KY ?!

I don't believe any of it right now. I've never seen a storm move in a steep V pattern like that, then just ramble around for a long time while transferring from Nashville to Charlotte. 

I expect it'll be Friday before we have a good idea and maybe not then.