Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Through 75, the Euro looks a lot like the GFS on the 500 sort maps. Much stronger than its last full run at 0z.

[Carvers Gap]

At 84, the Euro is indeed allowing the system to dig a bit more.  Much more organized.

[Carvers Gap]

At 96, the trend to dig more to the west-southwest is evident.  

[Carvers Gap]

At 96 Pivotal has a low sitting over Mobile, Alabama. 

[Reb]

Euro might best the GFS 

[Carvers Gap]

At 117, here she goes.  Snow along the northern shield in MS, Alabama, Georgia, and southern TN.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Comparison gif from 0z to 12z today time stamp is 18z Sunday:

[Weathertree2]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Comparison gif from 0z to 12z today time stamp is 18z Sunday:

Need that NW jog 

 

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro is definitely northwest.  Snow along the northern shield from Alabama, Georgia, and E TN.  Chattanooga now officially has a storm to track.

[TellicoWx]

Don't want to be anywhere near the bullseye at this range lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

That's a pretty energy pass. And, what's more, another vort is really trying to catch it:

 

977 in Souther New Jersey:

[Carvers Gap]

Very sharp cutoff from 75/81 westward.  As @TellicoWx notes, that is right where we want it.  Room to move.  That was a massive shift northwest.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Verbatim a bomb. Drops 30mb in 24 hours

[John1122]

The Euro is very closely following the GFS but a run or two behind. That looks a lot like the 06z GFS run.

[Carvers Gap]

That storm is 977 over Delmarva at 144.  That is a big storm models are eyeing this weekend.  Chances are, they are not done seeing how strong it is.  Good to have the Euro just a hair to the east.

[Carvers Gap]

Here is a three slide sequence.  12z is on the left.  0z is on the right, hours 126-132-138.  BIG move...

[nrgjeff]

12Z GFES mean is closer to the 12Z ECMWF Op solution. Stick that warm tongue somewhere else!

[TellicoWx]

12z GFS is a thing of beauty...you can see how the 12z Euro isn't quite as tightened up...definitely like where we are sitting. Anyone under that comma head on the GFS is in for a treat.

[Carvers Gap]

Clown map.  With the storm trending strong, would very much suspect the west side of the Apps would get much more. Honestly, the hourly precip type maps look great.

 

[Carvers Gap]

What was on all three global ensembles is a major winter storm.  No idea if that holds or if it trends west more, but that is a big storm.

[Carvers Gap]

Somewhere about right now a poster from Georgia is saying something about phase 7 being the best time for snow in Atlanta. @John1122, that is uncanny. 

[nrgjeff]

I'm preparing for Chattanooga flurries while Calhoun, GA gets a foot. Atlanta gets missed too, lol!

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Somewhere about right now a poster from Georgia is saying something about phase 7 being the best time for snow in Atlanta. @John1122, that is uncanny. 

Extreme cynicism is a Chattanooga defense mechanism. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Somewhere about right now a poster from Georgia is saying something about phase 7 being the best time for snow in Atlanta. @John1122, that is uncanny. 

Yep. That goes along with that nina southern route. Im rooting for the GFS but, EC is probable route, imo.

[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Somewhere about right now a poster from Georgia is saying something about phase 7 being the best time for snow in Atlanta. @John1122, that is uncanny. 

Can't remember the posters name, but was on the old boards years ago. He lived in Atlanta and had one of the best databases for that area I have ever seen. From what I remember (cause it surprised us then)..COD had actually produced alot of their big time storms.

[Chattownsnow]

5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Can't remember the posters name, but was on the old boards years ago. He lived in Atlanta and had one of the best databases for that area I have ever seen. From what I remember (cause it surprised us then)..COD had actually produced alot of their big time storms.

Gawx. A treasure trove of useful data 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, nrgjeff said:

I'm preparing for Chattanooga flurries while Calhoun, GA gets a foot. Atlanta gets missed too, lol!

 

That is what I like to call the "school car line" snow - meaning from forty miles away I can see Roan Mtn and snow from the school car line.  LOL.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z EPS low clusters:

[Greyhound]

4 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said:

Gawx. A treasure trove of useful data 

 

Does he run the "DaculaWx" twitter and websites?  Is this the same guy?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS members through hour 138:

 

[Chattownsnow]

12 minutes ago, Greyhound said:

 

Does he run the "DaculaWx" twitter and websites?  Is this the same guy?

I don’t think that is actually the same person but I could be wrong.