Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Bigbald]

Nearly a perfect track for east Tennessee on 12z CMC, wish it turn a little sharper west at hour 126 but that's nit picking.

[PowellVolz]

Would have been perfect if that pesky warm nose would stay out of the valley! Would be nice to have 1 system to not worry about the warm nose.

Unless we get the perfect ULL track with cold air in place, the valley will always be battling the warm nose.


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[Daniel Boone]

34 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

One thing I'm interested in seeing, if we get a vort track similar to what the 12z GFS is showing, is how the surface low hand off works in this situation.

It almost looked like it tried to pop one in the NE Gulf, then off the SE coast. Would that perhaps mitigate some of the normal eastern valley warm nose issues? I don't know. I've never seen a storm take a track like this, as far as I can remember, while I've been tracking these on the forums. 

Good question. Being an Antique, I recall some but, don't remember when or what effect irt the Valley. I think the late 70's Winter's featured some of those. However, such cold air masses were generally in place that the Valley warm nose wasn't as noticed irt precip types. 

[PowellVolz]

Ukie looked pretty good with the energy's approach, but dives it a little too far south:

 

 
 
 
 

I’m thinking the UK has a history of NW precipitation expansion issues? Or am I getting that confused with another mod?


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[Daniel Boone]

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Ukie looked pretty good with the energy's approach, but dives it a little too far south:

 

 

 

 

 

That's my concern there ! Happened in a couple Nina Winter's . 

[Carvers Gap]

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I’m thinking the UK has a history of NW precipitation expansion issues? Or am I getting that confused with another mod?


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Seems like the UK whiffed on the last storm erroneously.  

[Wurbus]

[PowellVolz]

That's my concern there ! Happened in a couple Nina Winter's . 

I good with this though. I would much rather take my chances of being to far NW at this juncture. Been burned too many times when we are in the bullseye in that 4-8 day window.


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[PowellVolz]

Seems like the UK whiffed on the last storm erroneously.  

I only look at it for validation these days.


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[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Bigbald said:

My post really adds nothing of substance here but whenever I see Carolina getting crushed I always feel fring-y at TRI.  It's happened alot over my lifetime, enough so that I will have a bad knee jerk reaction when I see the bright colors over NC lol.

What we want to see is DC involved.  Seems like when they are involved, we see part of those storms.  That said, this storm basically cuts due north from Savannah.  Going to be a powerhouse IF that is correct.  Lots of momentum being created/expended with a turn that sharp.

[Bigbald]

Not that it matters, there are a billion threats and billion changes to come, but in the long term 12z gfs there is the world's greatest clipper dropping down at 300 hrs with solid precip falling into 7-15 degree air for a few days.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, PowellVolz said:

I only look at it for validation these days.


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I agree.  Used to, it was pretty much the second best model for tracking storms.  Hopefully it is playing catch-up.  It has struggled this winter though.  Not sure why.

[Carvers Gap]

The snow map for the 12z GFS run is going be pretty stout.

[Carvers Gap]

Somewhere in West Virginia had 57" of snow modeled on that run(Kuchera).  Our mountains only had like 33-36."

[PowellVolz]

The snow map for the 12z GFS run is going be pretty stout.

Looks like an I-40 special on PW


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[Weathertree2]

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

Looks like an I-40 special on PW


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Like  our chances!

[Bigbald]

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The snow map for the 12z GFS run is going be pretty stout.

That has got to be my favorite all time fantasy op run.  Even at 384 hr there is a nice artic intrusion fixing to bomb down out of the Dakota's.

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

That has got to be my favorite all time fantasy op run.  Even at 384 hr there is a nice artic intrusion fixing to bomb down out of the Dakota's.

Yeah, it is worth post if nothing more for posterity.  57" in West Virginia on that run.  Not sure I have seen that in the East for a run.

 

[Carvers Gap]

We need one of those @Stovepipe "The Euro is Rolling" trucks in a moment.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS is going to have a massive snow mean for some areas.  

[Wurbus]

Best I could do while working. Euro rolling

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro has initialized.......

[Daniel Boone]

44 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I good with this though. I would much rather take my chances of being to far NW at this juncture. Been burned too many times when we are in the bullseye in that 4-8 day window.


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Yeah, I agree as far as what is the typical as well. Definitely not wanting that deep southern track and know the UK is crap anymore but, just a sour gut feeling possibility as I recall those nina years and setups when that occurred. Not that extreme south but, the loop west, south and then east of us. March, 09 . Cant remember the other year. Memp. got hammered then Atl and Chatt. Then Tn/NC border east. That is my worry. Should have specified precisely.

    Not nearly as south as uk depicts. 

[PowellVolz]

Yeah, I agree as far as what is the typical as well. Definitely not wanting that deep southern track and know the UK is crap anymore but, just a sour gut feeling possibility as I recall those nina years and setups when that occurred. Not that extreme south but, the loop west, south and then east of us. March, 09 . Cant remember the other year. Memp. got hammered then Atl and Chatt. Then Tn/NC border east. That is my worry. Should have specified precisely.
    Not nearly as south as uk depicts. 

Oh I totally get your point and agree


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[Kasper]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z Euro has initialized.......

[Kasper]

I haven’t seen things this Active since my X-Wife slept with her co-workers! Keep ‘em coming! 

[Carvers Gap]

The system is coming in along the Washington St coastline at 48.  Looks a hair south and certainly a bit stronger.

[Carvers Gap]

At 57, is a bit quicker and better organized.  FWIW, Pivotal is going to have this first.  I am watching WxBell.  Pivotal is releasing in 24 hour increments.  Just looking for trends on the WxBell site.

[PowellVolz]

I haven’t seen things this Active since my X-Wife slept with her co-workers! Keep ‘em coming! 

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