Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[TellicoWx]

Think the Southeast guys are having a heart attack after the 6z EPS Control lol

[TellicoWx]

6z EPS

[1234snow]

12z NAM was really digging the energy down the front range of the Rockies at the end of its run.

[Carvers Gap]

We need this to really dig or this is going to easily be a Carolina special.  I remember some storms like this back in either the late 90s or early 2000s where the snow line stopped right at the top of the Apps.  I had to go to Carvers Gap to see snow!!! LOL.  

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS is rolling.

[Carvers Gap]

Out to 69, the 500 vort maps seem to have the storm digging slightly more to the west.  We will see where this goes.  If true, might give it slightly more room to come inland.

[Carvers Gap]

12z ICON has changed to a southern pass and slightly inland runner.

[Bigbald]

31 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

We need this to really dig or this is going to easily be a Carolina special.  I remember some storms like this back in either the late 90s or early 2000s where the snow line stopped right at the top of the Apps.  I had to go to Carvers Gap to see snow!!! LOL.  

My post really adds nothing of substance here but whenever I see Carolina getting crushed I always feel fring-y at TRI.  It's happened alot over my lifetime, enough so that I will have a bad knee jerk reaction when I see the bright colors over NC lol.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks at 90 to be slightly (very slightly) north and east of 6z...could just be a precip shield difference vs change in the vort.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

IMO the vort is ever so slightly deeper and slower at 96

[Carvers Gap]

Some are really going to like this run.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

COD is out to 120 and we have this:

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

GFS out to 128 says, "Hammer time!"

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Is John planning a trip to Chattanooga to something this Sunday? 

[Wurbus]

Would have been perfect if that pesky warm nose would stay out of the valley! Would be nice to have 1 system to not worry about the warm nose.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

We're just going to pretend Kuchera rations don't exist on this one:

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

We're just going to pretend Kuchera rations don't exist on this one:

Just post the one with the most.  Weather hobby unspoken rule right there.  LOL.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

One thing I'm interested in seeing, if we get a vort track similar to what the 12z GFS is showing, is how the surface low hand off works in this situation.

It almost looked like it tried to pop one in the NE Gulf, then off the SE coast. Would that perhaps mitigate some of the normal eastern valley warm nose issues? I don't know. I've never seen a storm take a track like this, as far as I can remember, while I've been tracking these on the forums. 

[BNAwx]

It’s amazing how far south the track of this storm has adjusted in the last couple of days.  Regardless of whether or not I see snow IMBY, it’s fun to watch.

[Carvers Gap]

[Carvers Gap]

There is very little room left for this to trend north or we will switch from priming snow shovels to liquid snow.  That would be the word of caution.  What will be interesting to see is if this is just a trend west or a trend to a MUCH larger storm.  If that track is legit, have to think that sharp of a turn would result in a more snow/precip than modeled on the western fringe after the turn is made.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

21 minutes ago, BNAwx said:

It’s amazing how far south the track of this storm has adjusted in the last couple of days.  Regardless of whether or not I see snow IMBY, it’s fun to watch.

It's wild. Last 4 runs of the CMC, ending with 12z today:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Check out how different the last 4 SLP maps look on the CMC:

[Daniel Boone]

Folks, now that looks like a January 1996 major snowstorm evolution. Also, similar, i guess to the early Feb.'96 one as well.

     Hit me some weenies for this post , lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

TT doesn't have the precip maps yet, but here are the 850s and SLPs:

[Carvers Gap]

Little trick on the TT website, just switch it over to the MSLP/precip.  Nice pass on that run as well.

[Math/Met]

4 hours ago, Wurbus said:

Would have been perfect if that pesky warm nose would stay out of the valley! Would be nice to have 1 system to not worry about the warm nose.

The 06z GFS would be a good way to avoid most of that. It wasn’t perfect for the valley, but it had a lot of nice features.  The low stayed far enough south to keep the 850mb flow more east verses southeast, and there was an inverted trough extending up the mountains (provides lift and helps maintain a down valley flow). The 12z GFS changed the 850mb flow to a SE direction. That would cause a lot of downslope problems for many in East TN. Too early to worry about the details though.

[PowellVolz]

We have to assume this will trend back at some point but I’m wondering if there’s enough blocking to keep this from coming back NW in the 11th hour?


.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Ukie looked pretty good with the energy's approach, but dives it a little too far south:

 

 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Hot off the press.  12z GEFS on left.  6z GEFS on right.