Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Holston_River_Rambler...always great photos

Not sure I have ever seen something like this before.  This is the 12z CFSv2 control.  These are -20F departures for western portions of the forum area......for a 30 day time frame.  LOL.  The mean is 5-10 BN which is just insane in an of itself.  This is why I don't share a foxhole with this model...but, man.

 

Would imply an almost perfect storm track for mid south snows too, IMO.  I wonder if it (CFSv2 control) has recovered from its decade long stint in rehab?

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Would imply an almost perfect storm track for mid south snows too, IMO.  I wonder if it (CFSv2 control) has recovered from its decade long stint in rehab?

I doubt it.  Definitely on the sauce at 12z.   LOL.  I was getting ready to bust on it until I stumbled across this in my search.  This is its look for Dec 29 to Jan 5.  Yes, first part of that is going to be warm but the time from from Jan 3-5 could be very cold.  But look at the date this was made....

[jaxjagman]

31 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Jax, if the SST build in the western Pacific, that would likely allow more convection to occur in the MJO regions 8-1-2, right?  

I'd think so if the CFS is right

[John1122]

Mid-60s here two days in a row. It's even humid outside. Fortunately the temp is falling a bit now and it's 57 imby, so only about 14 degrees above where it would usually be on a late December late afternoon. 

I'll go back and look at some point, but it seems like every time we have extremely AN temps in late Dec or Early Jan we bounce back to extreme BN temps at some point in the weeks following. 

[tnweathernut]

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Broken clock syndrome?  lol

[jaxjagman]

25 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Broken clock syndrome?  lol

Just keep the +EPO away...lol

 

Edit scratch that comment,i was looking at another map

[John1122]

18z GFS drops the anafrontal hammer. Heavier version of last Christmas. Modeling is starting to show this to some extent on all suites.  Nice to see something cooking inside d10 for a change. 

[Bigbald]

18z gfs looks overall very chilly, with really only a 2-3 day warm up jan 7-9, followed by another stout cold front dropping.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS may be right after Jan 5th, but that is a bizarre run with not a ton of support from other modeling.  Looks like feedback problems to me yet again.  Let's see if its ensemble supports that.  I will say....the BIG problem is that we have 7-8 vortices rotating counter clockwise around those AN heights that was dislodged from the Aleutians.  If you go to the northern hemisphere view,  you can see them orbiting in what looks like drones just circling a mother ship.  Models are not handling that well at all, and understandably so.  Below is the Euro at 12z at hour 216.  Amazing, but good luck to numerical model sorting this out any time soon!!!!

....To all the models at 0z, may the odds be ever in your favor.

[Carvers Gap]

If you really want to see how complex the pattern is about to get, go to the NH view of the 18z GFS and look at it at 500.  Once the Aleutian high(edit) is dislodged, chaos ensues.  Model mayhem is likely on the table at this point.  To me, I would suggest the potential for a progressive(but slow) pattern.  Versus things getting locked in, we may well see things move...but slowly until things shake out.  What is on modeling is a major disruption to the atmospheric circulation.   I think we are about to see an amplified, short wavelength pattern.  It is almost like the big Aleutian high was a cotter pin - kind of held things in place.  

[Mr. Kevin]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

If you really want to see how complex the pattern is about to get, go to the NH view of the 18z GFS and look at it at 500.  Once the Aleutian low is dislodged, chaos ensues.  Model mayhem is likely on the table at this point.  To me, I would suggest the potential for a progressive(but slow) pattern.  Versus things getting locked in, we may well see things move...but slowly until things shake out.  What is on modeling is a major disruption to the atmospheric circulation.   I think we are about to see an amplified, short wavelength pattern.  It is almost like the big Aleutian high was a cotter pin - kind of held things in place.  

Did you mean alutian high dislodged? Lol. We haven't had one of those in a long time

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just an aside, but check out this N Hemisphere pattern we get on the GFS wrt MSLP at around hr 220:

[Carvers Gap]

Below are two contrasting months.  By no means am I saying this is what happens.  However, sometimes to illustrate something, an exaggerated example is often helpful.  La Nina winter with incredibly warm temps followed by a very cold January.  Yes, this pattern is rare.  It was rare then, and it is rare now.  71 degrees to start January.  If we hadn't had that 26 degree AN departure to start the month....So, this is why I have learned not to quite on winter while in December.  Lots of lesser examples exist.  

Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Temperature				HDD	CDD	Precipitation	New Snow	Snow Depth
	Maximum	Minimum	Average	Departure
Sum	1758	1061	-	-	599	0	1.76	0.3	-
Average	56.7	34.2	45.5	6.2	-	-	-	-	0.0
Normal	49.5	29.2	39.3	-	795	0	3.76	1.7	-
1984-12-01	51	31	41.0	-1.1	24	0	0.00	0.0	0
1984-12-02	59	27	43.0	1.1	22	0	0.08	0.0	0
1984-12-03	53	33	43.0	1.3	22	0	T	0.0	0
1984-12-04	38	23	30.5	-11.0	34	0	0.00	0.0	0
1984-12-05	42	35	38.5	-2.8	26	0	0.28	0.0	0
1984-12-06	40	12	26.0	-15.1	39	0	0.13	0.3	0
1984-12-07	30	10	20.0	-20.9	45	0	T	T	T
1984-12-08	49	16	32.5	-8.2	32	0	0.00	0.0	T
1984-12-09	55	22	38.5	-2.0	26	0	0.00	0.0	0
1984-12-10	45	32	38.5	-1.8	26	0	0.03	0.0	0
1984-12-11	57	37	47.0	6.9	18	0	0.00	0.0	0
1984-12-12	62	31	46.5	6.6	18	0	0.00	0.0	0
1984-12-13	67	45	56.0	16.3	9	0	0.00	0.0	0
1984-12-14	69	36	52.5	12.9	12	0	0.00	0.0	0
1984-12-15	71	38	54.5	15.1	10	0	0.00	0.0	0
1984-12-16	65	39	52.0	12.8	13	0	0.00	0.0	0
1984-12-17	64	44	54.0	14.9	11	0	T	0.0	0
1984-12-18	60	42	51.0	12.1	14	0	0.01	0.0	0
1984-12-19	62	51	56.5	17.8	8	0	0.08	0.0	0
1984-12-20	59	51	55.0	16.4	10	0	0.08	0.0	0
1984-12-21	64	51	57.5	19.1	7	0	0.04	0.0	0
1984-12-22	60	35	47.5	9.2	17	0	0.26	0.0	0
1984-12-23	51	27	39.0	0.9	26	0	0.00	0.0	0
1984-12-24	48	25	36.5	-1.5	28	0	0.23	0.0	0
1984-12-25	50	28	39.0	1.2	26	0	0.22	0.0	0
1984-12-26	59	25	42.0	4.3	23	0	0.00	0.0	0
1984-12-27	59	38	48.5	10.9	16	0	0.00	0.0	0
1984-12-28	69	39	54.0	16.6	11	0	0.00	0.0	0
1984-12-29	69	41	55.0	17.7	10	0	0.00	0.0	0
1984-12-30	64	46	55.0	17.8	10	0	0.08	0.0	0
1984-12-31	67	51	59.0	21.9	6	0	0.24	0.0	0

 

Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Temperature				HDD	CDD	Precipitation	New Snow	Snow Depth
	Maximum	Minimum	Average	Departure
Sum	1112	598	-	-	1153	0	3.21	9.7	-
Average	35.9	19.3	27.6	-8.8	-	-	-	-	0.8
Normal	46.5	26.3	36.4	-	886	0	3.65	3.0	-
1985-01-01	71	56	63.5	26.5	1	0	0.33	0.0	0
1985-01-02	57	38	47.5	10.7	17	0	0.71	0.0	0
1985-01-03	44	38	41.0	4.3	24	0	0.34	0.0	0
1985-01-04	42	31	36.5	-0.1	28	0	0.32	T	0
1985-01-05	31	26	28.5	-8.1	36	0	T	T	T
1985-01-06	46	20	33.0	-3.5	32	0	0.00	0.0	T
1985-01-07	39	29	34.0	-2.4	31	0	T	T	0
1985-01-08	38	31	34.5	-1.8	30	0	T	0.0	0
1985-01-09	43	20	31.5	-4.8	33	0	0.00	0.0	0
1985-01-10	38	32	35.0	-1.2	30	0	0.02	T	0
1985-01-11	37	23	30.0	-6.2	35	0	0.06	T	0
1985-01-12	29	17	23.0	-13.1	42	0	0.01	0.1	T
1985-01-13	36	13	24.5	-11.6	40	0	0.00	0.0	0
1985-01-14	41	15	28.0	-8.1	37	0	T	T	0
1985-01-15	29	16	22.5	-13.5	42	0	T	T	0
1985-01-16	42	11	26.5	-9.5	38	0	0.11	1.1	0
1985-01-17	35	29	32.0	-4.0	33	0	0.21	2.1	2
1985-01-18	36	26	31.0	-5.1	34	0	T	T	2
1985-01-19	35	25	30.0	-6.1	35	0	0.10	0.9	T
1985-01-20	25	-16	4.5	-31.6	60	0	0.21	2.1	3
1985-01-21	2	-21	-9.5	-45.7	74	0	0.00	0.0	3
1985-01-22	20	2	11.0	-25.2	54	0	0.02	0.3	3
1985-01-23	24	11	17.5	-18.8	47	0	T	T	3
1985-01-24	39	4	21.5	-14.8	43	0	0.00	0.0	2
1985-01-25	37	15	26.0	-10.4	39	0	0.01	0.1	1
1985-01-26	22	10	16.0	-20.5	49	0	T	T	1
1985-01-27	27	5	16.0	-20.6	49	0	0.10	1.0	T
1985-01-28	32	24	28.0	-8.7	37	0	0.13	1.8	2
1985-01-29	31	15	23.0	-13.8	42	0	0.00	0.0	3
1985-01-30	40	15	27.5	-9.5	37	0	0.02	0.2	1
1985-01-31	44	38	41.0	3.9	24	0	0.51	0.0	T

[Carvers Gap]

11 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Just an aside, but check out this N Hemisphere pattern we get on the GFS wrt MSLP at around hr 220:

And roll that forward into the 300s and all of that just scatters.  Crazy what is in the LR right now.  Not sure modeling is equipped for where it goes after that map above.  It is a beauty though.

[Carvers Gap]

18z GEFS through 300 looks really good.  

[Mr. Kevin]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z GEFS through 300 looks really good.  

Carver, the 18zgfs was a bonk run then? You think?

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, the 18zgfs was a bonk run then?

Nice cold front rolls through 3-5th.  Takes a little longer to reload.  The 18z GEFS holds to a quicker reload after the first front.  Again, take a look at what @Holston_River_Ramblerhas posted above.  Nice, stable quad groupings.  Then, roll that forward into the 300s and the GFS is juggling 7-8.  I think cold is on the table.  Models just don't know which piece of energy or amplification to jump on.  Likely will be some HUGE swings in actual reality.  Model mayhem may be on the way - which I like!!!

[Carvers Gap]

And it should be noted that modeling is going to be all over the place with cold on the move.....again, the 18z GEFS looks fantastic.  Just trying to get the pattern right for now.

[Carvers Gap]

0z GFS commentary(will update this post as it runs):

@162 winter storm incoming/underway

definitely can see the GFS is working off a different MJO scenario despite a great winter storm track

GFS does get there...still think it is dealing with some severe feed back issues with the system that doesn't come on board.

Pretty obvious the MJO for the GEFS is a bit different than the CMC's

Stay tuned for 6z...should be more model mayhem.

[Bigbald]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

0z GFS commentary(will update this post as it runs):

@162 winter storm incoming/underway

Great storm for New England, some big totals.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Bigbald said:

Great storm for New England, some big totals.

2-4" over portions of E TN as well....perfect tract for snow here.  Was reading the thread for the Midwest...one of the forecast NWS discos there talked about a storm working from the GOM northward being a possibility next weekend.

[Carvers Gap]

0z GFS rolls the AH into Alaska and forms a mega block.  Should set the stage for a strong Arctic outbreak around just after that storm comes on board at 264.   Just another iteration of the possibilities once the pattern begins to shake-up.

[Bigbald]

Have no idea if the Canadian is right but that would be some high ratio snow with some single digits that follow for east tn after Jan 3rd.  Glad to see that cold is back on the table for Jan.

[Carvers Gap]

Yeah, the CMC is similar to the GFS regarding the possible event for the 3rd.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Since we've been watching the SOI lately, I thought it was interesting that the pressure in Tahiti was back down to what it was when the SOI was so negative a few days ago:

For the "Nino" look, I think you want higher pressure over Darwin and lower pressure over Tahiti, indicating that convection is further east in the Pacific. 

There's still a tropical cyclone near Darwin, so if we could get that sucker to scootchle on ESE, maybe we'll see the SOI trend more negative. 

WRT the MJO, the Euro is trying its hardest:

 

 

 

Normally we've done well with these "wave riding a front" thingys lately, but there's an extry complication for our possible friend this weekend, lurking in the eastern Pac:

I haven't really had to look at the GOES 17 satellite lately, but noticed some convection on the eastern edge of Himawari 8 (the satellite I usually use to watch convection lingering over the Maritime Continent) and so I checked it out. I was immediately impressed by the fat that I think you can just see the La Nina in the low cloudiness. Whatever it is, I outlined it in blue. But the critter that is interesting to me is the one I circled in red. It's an energetic little shortwave, cutoff under the massive GOA ridge. 

I made this gif go kind of fast, but watch the energy spin and linger and supply some energy and moisture to the wave that drops down the Pac coast, starting around hour 60. :

There's a dual jet structure with the precip. we have coming this week, through the wave riding a front scenario late this weekend:

 

I think the precip. amounts overperform for this week, but the fact that we have so much interaction between waves and cutoffs will make for big swings and complications for later in the weekend. But hey, we seen to do pretty good with these scenarios lately, so hopefully those odds are in our favor. 

 

If you read all that, here's a present, the Euro, GFS, and CMC ensembles for the potential next weekend:

 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

6z GFS plasters portions of middle/west TN.  You all need to head tot he Midwest/Ohio to see the comments which were posted from their local NWS disco statement.  I often read the MA forum, because a lot of their weather begins IMBY.  If I lived in middle/west TN, I would get my hands on that post given what we saw the GFS just do.  The CMC has a storm further east.  Euro, as expected, is slower and more west than the other two solutions.  12z might be an interesting suite if models keep showing that look.  My guess would be middle and west TN for now - but low confidence that modeling has this sorted out.  It could simply cut well west of the area.

In the LR, the past two runs GEFS has little support for its solutions at 0/6z, even from its own MJO plots. Could be a coup and leading the way or it could be dealing with feedback from a slp which stalls along the west coast as a result of a split trough.  The GEFPS and especially the EPS have excellent solutions which would produce winter.  For now, I go with the GEPS/EPS combo.  What is weird is the GEFS MJO looks fantastic!  Wonder if that model might be getting ready to move yet again.  Tough pattern for models to work out.  LOW CONFIDENCE in timing of the potential next cold shot after the 3rd-5th.  Would guess it is around the 10th, but we will see.  American modeling looks significantly worse today, though their MJOs looks textbook for cold.  Something is going to have to give.  The actual 6z GFS looks reasonable though.  

Holston has given a great rundown this morning.  Questions still which need to be answered over the next few days.  Is this a pattern relaxation which simply returns to its December form?  Is this a new pattern which may still put the trough out West?  Or is this a return to the November pattern in a step down fashion during January?  Again, it is super important to look at the mslp under those 500 looks.  Some of those looks are terrible at 500, but the surface map is below normal.  I say that because the 500 look has been fooling me for days, and the MSLP tells a different story.

Great write-up, @Holston_River_Rambler

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Energy is digging more at 12z on the GFS. The low is going to come close to rounding the base of the Apps through N GA. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here's the run on the GFS:

Looks like the 850 low tracks from Starkville, MS to around Dayton,TN, then towards Damascus, VA:

 

Probably way too soon to be looking at things like the 850 low track. but I'm happy that there is something to track, for now. 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The GFS right now is producing solutions which are far, far different than its own MJO or other global operationals.  It is either about to score a coup, or it is struggling.  Its cold front on the 3rd is much weaker than the CMC or ICON.  Seems like an error, but time will tell.  Large difference begin then.

[Carvers Gap]

The weaker GFS solution is actually allowing for less suppression in the short run.  My guess is the cold front is more CMC-like and less GFS-like.  You can already see the second front reloading on the CMC late in the run.