Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The BOM had been pretty awful of late in regards to the MJO.  It had us just a few days ago going into 1-2.  The EURO hasn’t been much better.  GEFS has been the counterbalance to the EURO.  Prob a blend of the GEFS(which hasn’t been updating) and the EPS is a better move - non-bias correction has been more accurate IMHO.  My guess is that we will stay cold regardless of the MJO phase through at least Jan 25 and maybe to the 30th.  Some winters the MJO becomes a non-factor.  
 

For now, the trough going back West makes some sense IF the eastern PAC retrogrades which is not a slam dunk.  The 6z GFS is an example of how that could evolve.  Again, the GFS is likely too quick.  One note, the EPS likes to put the trough in the West regardless which I believe is a an MJO bias towards 6.  If/when the GEFS/GEPS flip the trough to the West, we will know the game is up.  All three global ensembles are good - for now.  Deterministic runs will likely catch a pattern change first.  My guess is the GFS will waffle back and forth in the LR.  If it does that, sure sign a pattern changes is just past its 16 day horizon.  
 

In the meantime, can’t borrow trouble.  Plenty of interesting wx on the table beginning this weekend and into next week.  

[Carvers Gap]

This is what I was discussing prior.  The 6z GEFS with a HUGE break in continuity.  It has almost no support from its ensemble blend.   There might be two or three members (out of 30) which supports the operational, really only one to that extreme.  Below is a comparison of the 5d 500mb anomaly on the deterministic vs the 5d ensemble blend of the 6z GEFS and GFS.  BIG differences.  I will probably toss the 6z GFS, BUT it sometimes (as @Holston_River_Ramblernotes correctly) sniffs out a pattern change before any other operational or ensemble.  What I am hoping is that it is a head fake similar to what it tried to do right before Christmas - tried to go cold but the extreme heat followed.  Maybe we get the opposite this time...head fake warm and ends up with a period of extreme cold before the pattern flips.  I think the window for the pattern change is probably Jan 25-Feb5.  I would be surprised if we revert back to the Aleutian high on a long term basis.  It would not surprise me to see the trough got back West, but push more this time around as there is no -NAO to bottle it up in the northern Rockies.  That said, the QBO argues for cold.  Also, the wavelengths will begin to change some as we approach spring. That process alone will make it tough to lock-up the cold in the West.  As is, if we escape January with seasonal temps, we can all agree that is a "take."  We started the month with a 25+ anomaly and have whittled it down to +3.5(TRI has record 3+" of snow even though that anomaly is positive).  I suspect we may get that all of the way to BN by the end of next week.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS appears to have found its stormy pattern again.  Three minor/moderat events to watch beginning this weekend.

[Bigbald]

12z cmc and gfs really locked on to the next 6-7 days, remarkable jump.

[Daniel Boone]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z GFS appears to have found its stormy pattern again.  Three minor/moderat events to watch beginning this weekend.

Makes sense. That 6z depiction of returning to the identical warm pattern of DEC. in lr just doesn't jive either as indexes/drivers are going increasingly against that. 

    The possibility does exist of a mild pattern once again, at least for a time.

      Barring any strong blocking up top I suspect Feb. will be back and forth.

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Makes sense. That 6z depiction of returning to the identical warm pattern of DEC. in lr just doesn't jive either as indexes/drivers are going increasingly against that. 

    The possibility does exist of a mild pattern once again, at least for a time.

      Barring any strong blocking up top I suspect Feb. will be back and forth.

Agree.  Just have to keep an eye on it.  What I have noticed is that it will spit-out one of those off runs.  Either they get more frequent or totally disappear for a week or so.  It did something similar for the 4-5 days forecast right before Christmas.  Maybe a week or two prior to that window, the GFS had several runs which looked like we might steal a snowstorm.  Instead, the actual result was just a continuation of the warm pattern for about ten more days.  However, those few Dec cooler suites were likely the opening shot in it eventually sniffing out a pattern change about a week and a half later on Jan 3rd.  

....What the 6z ain't, the 12z is.  LOL.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z is not so much a different run at higher liatitudes.  It just creates an Alaskan block instead of an Aleutian high straight from the gates of....LOL.  

[nrgjeff]

True -PNA risks exist about Day 16. However we have excellent chances in the 6-15 day. Will focus there since it's nearer term anyway.

Interesting this coming weekend system was shown rain and thunder late last week. Storm track is markedly south of previously forecast. If the weekend fails, I suspect another short-wave follows early next week. 

We can worry about the end of the month later. For now, we need us some ECMWF love!

[Daniel Boone]

Yeah, good analogy for the AH origin Carvers, lol

   Hopefully we score several times the next 2 to 3 weeks. 

[PowellVolz]

Be nice to get a couple shots of cold air in the mean time with half the country under some snow cover. Even if we don’t get in the heart of cold air, there’s enough to our north that a storm passing to our south will tap into it. Unless we get into a overrunning situation.


.

[Carvers Gap]

That is one cold run of the 12z EPS.  When one sees -10F BN at the end of a run for northern portions of the forum region, that is very cold.  Wished the Weeklies would have been derived from that newer run.  If that verifies, a potentially good two weeks of tracking is in store...bout all we can ask for.   

[nrgjeff]

EC Weeklies do carry that into week 3. Brrrr! However the -PNA concerns allow a SER to rear up week 4. I'm not concerned about week 4 though.

Looks like we are game on for the next two to three weeks. Temps will be cold. Southern stream looks active, plus possible clippers out of the northern stream. 

[Mr. Kevin]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

That is one cold run of the 12z EPS.  When one sees -10F BN at the end of a run for northern portions of the forum region, that is very cold.  Wished the Weeklies would have been derived from that newer run.  If that verifies, a potentially good two weeks of tracking is in store...bout all we can ask for.   

Carver, can you post the eps when u get a chance? Hopefully we dont get the mjo firing in phase 6 unless it goes quickly into phase 7 again. Reason I dont like laniña very much. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

@Mr. Kevin

[PowellVolz]

[mention=17153]Mr. Kevin[/mention]

.

[Mr. Kevin]

This may be a holston or john question. Is there anyway to avoid the mjo firing in phase 6 or is that off the table? Hopefully if it does happen, we can get a quick transition to other phases besides the "warm" phase 

[Carvers Gap]

23 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

This may be a holston or john question. Is there anyway to avoid the mjo firing in phase 6 or is that off the table? Hopefully if it does happen, we can get a quick transition to other phases besides the "warm" phase 

Nope.  The IO is firing.  It will propagate into 6 almost definitely.  The better question....Can we keep it cold even if the MJO rotates through 4-6.  I "think" that happened in maybe 96 or one of those 90s cold winters.  Also, if things are actually moving along in MJO country, it may not actually stall.  Just would end-up with a two week thaw.  My hunch is we hold this pattern until early Feb, rest of Feb is warm, then we break back cold in early March.  Just a guess.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS looks great.  Chattanooga folks might like that run!

[Carvers Gap]

26 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

This may be a holston or john question. Is there anyway to avoid the mjo firing in phase 6 or is that off the table? Hopefully if it does happen, we can get a quick transition to other phases besides the "warm" phase 

The thing is about La Nina winters....when they end, they end very quickly.  But as Jeff noted, we are not there yet.  

[*Flash*]

24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Nope.  The IO is firing.  It will propagate into 6 almost definitely.  The better question....Can we keep it cold even if the MJO rotates through 4-6.  I "think" that happened in maybe 96 or one of those 90s cold winters.  Also, if things are actually moving along in MJO country, it may not actually stall.  Just would end-up with a two week thaw.  My hunch is we hold this pattern until early Feb, rest of Feb is warm, then we break back cold in early March.  Just a guess.

Has anyone developed a teleconnection hierarchy/checklist/diagram for what trumps what teleconnection-wise? This post makes me want to research primary pattern drivers in snowy/colder winters during the past 30 years. For instance, we've seen -NAO/-AO trump ENSO and -EPO's trump +AO/+NAO's. Part of me wonders if the seasonal theme is volatility, a highly amped pattern can lead to 'anything is possible 'results. Granted, I understand this a 2D request when reality is more 4D. 

[ShawnEastTN]

The 18z GFS looks great.  Chattanooga folks might like that run!

As modeled that would be a stout clipper.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[Dsty2001]

6 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

As modeled that would be a stout clipper.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

ohhh anybody have a clown map

[TellicoWx]

57 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z GFS looks great.  Chattanooga folks might like that run!

There's so much energy flying around, I'm not even looking past 72 hrs lol. Just look at 18z GFS for example for NE TN folks Thurs...believe it will be model mayhem for next couple weeks. Wouldn't be surprised if something appears suddenly at close range.

[Carvers Gap]

30 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Has anyone developed a teleconnection hierarchy/checklist/diagram for what trumps what teleconnection-wise? This post makes me want to research primary pattern drivers in snowy/colder winters during the past 30 years. For instance, we've seen -NAO/-AO trump ENSO and -EPO's trump +AO/+NAO's. Part of me wonders if the seasonal theme is volatility, a highly amped pattern can lead to 'anything is possible 'results. Granted, I understand this a 2D request when reality is more 4D. 

Great question for sure.  Not sure what causes this combo, but these are characteristic which I saw in brutally cold/snow winters for our region:

Alaskan block and/or EPO ridge is found in pretty much every big pattern.

Oddly, BN heights over Greenland are common in about half of the patterns I looked at.  Though to get a Kocin storm, a Greenland block is a common factor.

BN heights east of HI

Ridge in the western Atlantic

SSW about 2-3 weeks prior to a major cold outbreak.  The strat warmed during mid December of 2021

Weak La Nina's are often money here.  

The MJO can be over-ridden......especially in a pattern like this.  Though the Euro Weeklies move the trough westward towards the end of the month, temps here are still normal or BN.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

There's so much energy flying around, I'm not even looking past 72 hrs lol. Just look at 18z GFS for example for NE TN folks Thurs...believe it will be model mayhem for next couple weeks. Wouldn't be surprised if something appears suddenly at close range.

Yeah, this could get wild.

[Carvers Gap]

The 46d Euro Weeklies Control run presented without comment:

 

[Vol4Life]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 46d Euro Weeklies Control run presented without comment:

 

Looks like that was initialized on the 6th. So those totals included this past storm.  Still impressive though!

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Vol4Life said:

Looks like that was initialized on the 6th. So those totals included this past storm.  Still impressive though!

Yep.  Crap.  Good catch.  The rest of the maps are through the 10th.  That one hasn't updated yet!

[Carvers Gap]

18z GEFS snow mean:

 

[Mr. Kevin]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z GEFS snow mean:

 

If the alutian ridge is as strong as December, which pumped the -pna, its game over for the se imo. Hopefully that dont happen or something to override the mjo, like you alluded to.