Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[AMZ8990]

15 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

We need to try and squeeze out a thunder clap or two over the mts as this heads east tonight:

 

You know, just for fun.... 

 

Had it this morning on my way into work in Collierville, lots of lightning on a morning drive is always fun to see.  Wouldn’t surprise me if some of you guys see the same later today.  Rain is torrential also 

[*Flash*]

Haven't nose-dived into recent modeling today but aerially speaking...I'm wondering since the -EPO seems to be a key teleconnection driver ATM, if the magnitude of ATL blocking can't match its PAC counterpart then waves may progress more quickly as they exit stage left. Mid TN has capitalized this month, in part, due to storm track and speed as lows pivot around those trough bases. Once the -AO/-NAO tightens up and potentially offsets a more neutral PNA, east TN should be able to benefit as the axis element adjusts. We have a mild week to milk as the deck reshuffles. Beggars can't be choosers at this latitude, but I gotta think most southern forum posters will gladly receive systems that dig a little deeper without a train to catch. The intersecting setup of PJ and STJ is a promising foundation as we don't grasp for straws on the phasing/near-phasing front. I like where we sit for the next 3-4 weeks. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

GFS was pretty close to an interesting solution mid to late week:

 

I don't see much hope that the energy combines far enough west for most of us, but....

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Others have said it in different forums and subforums, but this mid to late week system is trying to give me some Jan 2018 vibes:

[PowellVolz]

Others have said it in different forums and subforums, but this mid to late week system is trying to give me some Jan 2018 vibes:

Refresh my memory


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

@PowellVolz a wild storm that formed in the Caribbean  and ran up the coast, sadly missing the poor Mid Atlantic folks. 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here is the 500mb reanalysis and MSLP. Sorry it is going so fast, but giphy wouldn't let me adjust the speed once I made it. 

 

 

But the low went from a 1012 to a 971 in 24 hours:

 

[Carvers Gap]

Wild swings in weather incoming I think.  This how La Nina normally behaves - crazy town type stuff.  Last weekend we managed to set record highs on a Saturday and by Sunday night it was snowing - that kind of wild.  Weak La Nina patterns are the my favorite.  LOL.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The wind is really kicking up here on the plateau as a front drops in:

You can see it running down I-24 on the velocity loop, and..... that wouldn't be a lightning strike near Frozen head, would it? 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Not sweating the MJO just yet.   The switch there is coming though.  That said, sometimes HLB will override the MJO, but it didn't during December.  This is December now, though.  Looks to me like we are good through roughly the end of the month.

The 12z GEFS is something to behold.  It is very nearly a multi-day over-running event beginning just after next weekend.  The snow mean for TRI is almost 6".  The GEPS is not far behind.  

12z Euro is on board with maybe cooking something up next weekend.  

Looks like a very active pattern ahead where the Alaskan block and/or EPO are going to drive this bus until they just run out of gas.

[nrgjeff]

Brief mild period late next week makes sense ahead of the weekend cold front. Keep in mind AN temps in January is still cold. New convection in the IO may be crossing Indonesia at the time... but propagating on to the West Pac.

Then we set up a return to Alaska ridge and perhaps North Atlantic help. Normally I'd be really skeptical of the MLK Day week forecast; however, it is peak climo. We need to reel that sh!t in including southeast Tenn.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS and now 12z Euro deterministic have a lot of opportunities.  Tough to talk details just yet, but a good look nonetheless.

[nrgjeff]

Yeah I'll take an order (or 3) of the 12Z ECMWF. Southeast Tenn!

[Met1985]

Just now, nrgjeff said:

Yeah I'll take an order (or 3) of the 12Z ECWMF.

That was a great run for sure.

[John1122]

It's been a long time since we had a January pattern possible like this. Our wintery years have been strong in February when we get them. I love January, especially late January, because you can get days of extreme cold after snow events more often than you do in December or after Feb 10th or so. Those are my favorites.

[Carvers Gap]

12z EPS looks a lot like the 12z GEFS.  

[John1122]

That EPS was amazing. -NAO, west based, -EPO, +PNA. That would normally mean we are going to snow at some point and get very cold too. It looks like it starts in about 6 days too.  So it's being reeled in still. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It's just so tantalizing. All that STJ moisture getting pulled up and thrown at us:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[John1122]

A comparison to where the Euro takes us to some past 500mb looks. 

Feb 2015

 

Jan 1985

 

 

EPS 500mb for day 15, but has this look earlier.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

For anyone (like me) who was watching the 18z GFS roll in and wondered why there weren't more hits, those Baja/ Cali upper lows killed us. They helped shred the energy that was taking aim at us as it cruised in from Canada. I feel like a good (but not the only) trajectory for vorts to hit us from is the narrowest part of Idaho, to Shreveport, LA. The jet was slingin' em at us, but unless one of those pieces can overpower the Cali/ Baja low, it shreds it. Luckily the Euro doesn't show energy getting hung up there for as long as the 18z GFS. 

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

For anyone (like me) who was watching the 18z GFS roll in and wondered why there weren't more hits, those Baja/ Cali upper lows killed us. They helped shred the energy that was taking aim at us as it cruised in from Canada. I feel like a good (but not the only) trajectory for vorts to hit us from is the narrowest part of Idaho, to Shreveport, LA. The jet was slingin' em at us, but unless one of those pieces can overpower the Cali/ Baja low, it shreds it. Luckily the Euro doesn't show energy getting hung up there for as long as the 18z GFS. 

If you look back at the thread around the 26th and 27th, the GFS had similar issues with a low pressure feeding back just off the coast of California re: the Jan3rd time frame.  That did not verify in actuality that I know of.  It occurred about 7-8 days prior to the flip.  Might be a bias we need to keep an eye on.  The old Euro used to have a terrible bias with southwest lows.

[Carvers Gap]

Yep.  Just eye-balled the 500 for the 18z GFS...looks like a super similar feedback issue as earlier.  I mean it could verify, but looks super wonky.  Took the GFS a couple of days to work through that last time.  I haven't looked at the GEFS, but I bet it gets that smoothed out enough to where it won't affect the ensemble. 

[jaxjagman]

On 1/2/2022 at 1:22 PM, jaxjagman said:

Really like the look after the mid month of Jan.Euro shows a upper low into East China and as it gets into South and North Korea it looks more tilted then it get into Japan its stacked.Seems possible depending on how the teleconnections work out we could have a Upper Low maybe over the Valley or close by.Lots of uncertainty ATM

 

[jaxjagman]

Seemingly we could have a warm up tho after this and another cool down right after with the Aleutiam High building in for a brief time as the MJO more or less retrogrades back into the WP maybe and loses it signals and hovers towards the COD/Map is the extratropics which seems to fit well with the RMM+1 into phase 8 MJO upcoming long range pattern shown by the models

[jaxjagman]

Long range the CFS continues to show the MJO starts to stenghten into the IO or Maritime towards the end of Jan into Feb,CFS has ben showing this for awhile it seems but it also shows a a decent KW which would seemingly be nothing but destructive interference but it does show it start to strengten the signal into a favorable patten into Feb..take it with a grain of salt right now

[Uncle Nasty]

I'm surprised to see MRX talking about possible snow for next weekend. Normally 6 days is a long time in the future for MRX to even suggest a possibility. They mention the model differences and the potential for accumulating winter precipitation if the low takes the southern track.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MRX&issuedby=MRX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1


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[tnweathernut]

My two cents….  I lean toward the general solution the Euro has, and not just because it shows more winter potential for the weekend.  I say that because beyond day 5ish, the GFS is (a lot of the time) too much northern stream (progressive) and not enough southern stream, squashing chances.  The Euro (at least in days of old, lol) would handle this setup much better.  Interested to see where this week takes us.

[Carvers Gap]

LR Post:  Might have been an off run by the 6z GFS, but that is a significant break in continuity.  It has no support from the 6z GEFS.  However, with the MJO beginning to fire(we really want the MJO at low amplitude so that HLB can take over), I think we are going to see modeling begin to want to push a semi-permanent ridge into the East at some point after the 25th.  It is likely the GFS is ahead of itself or even completely wrong,  but you can see a similar trend on the 0z EPS with it cutting into the BN temps it had forecast over the EC in the LR at 12z yesterday.  Cold is still there, but so is the trend to cut into it.   I think we are good from the 15th to the ~25th.  After that, I think we begin to see the wheels turn in regards to ending the current cold pattern.  How quickly that happens is dependent on two juxtapositioned regions of the MJO, and which signal wins.    The MJO firing is truly an unfortunate occurrence, but was also likely inevitable.  Will wait until we see the CPC update the MJO today before commenting further.  If we go to phase 4-5-6, let's hope it is quick.  As is, looks like we have several storms to potentially track before that happens - beginning this weekend.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

This is kind of what the tropical forcing has been doing all winter, at least that's how it seems to me. It will get into a better place and just as it seems it will either set up shop there or progress into and even better phase, it takes a step back. Each time it starts moving again though, it does get a little better than the last time it progressed before the regression. 

 

Some sort of blend of the Euro's progression and the BOM progression seems to have worked out pretty well so far. I'm not taking these plots day-by-day literally, but sort of as a general idea of the progression and regression. BOM seems to have generally had the right idea, but sometimes has been too quick and the Euro has curbed it's enthusiasm, while eventually going roughly where the BOM says it will go long term:

 

 

TBH I wouldn't be surprised if the 6z GFS is sniffing what the above RMMs are cooking. But the GFS is hungry for a progressive pattern and change and it ain't dinner time just yet. 

 

 

 

[PowellVolz]

I'm surprised to see MRX talking about possible snow for next weekend. Normally 6 days is a long time in the future for MRX to even suggest a possibility. They mention the model differences and the potential for accumulating winter precipitation if the low takes the southern track.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MRX&issuedby=MRX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1


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Highs in the low 40’s for the central valley with lows in the 20’s. If we can keep that low far enough south that the LLJ does blow us up I like our chances. Might even get some NW flow going on the wraparound.


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