Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[PowellVolz]

In 13-14 winter, the ao and nao were super positive all winter. Top 10 coldest winters ever btw 

Wasn’t 10-11 really cold?


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[John1122]

GFS, UKIE and Canadian working on a clipper Wednesday night for Eastern areas. Canadian looks a little better and more into Tennessee. Would be an event where you hoped to squeeze out an inch.

[Icy Hot]

Been a long time since we've had a Clipper 

[John1122]

GFS is trying for another system next Saturday into Sunday too. 

[John1122]

GFS has multiple shots at snow/winter weather  from Wednesday all the way through 384. Can't jump on any event at this range but the pattern it implies is excellent for opportunities. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Big SOI drop overnight:

[Met1985]

47 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Big SOI drop overnight:

I this upcoming pattern is going to be ripe for some decent to big time storms.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

To follow up on what John said, the 0z GFS was what I call the space invaders pattern. The northern stream and the STJ keep shooting energy at each other like the old video game:

 

[tnweathernut]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

To follow up on what John said, the 0z GFS was what I call the space invaders pattern. The northern stream and the STJ keep shooting energy at each other like the old video game:

 

Only a matter of time before the two streams connect and we have another legit trackable snow/ice system, IMO

[Bigbald]

And for east tn/swva we've lost the mid to late week clipper action on the 12z suites of the CMC and GFS.  

[PowellVolz]

Just like the last two systems, the pattern gives us an opportunity to cash in but it does favor everyone west of the plateau and NW of 40/81. Not saying Knoxville, south won’t get in on the action but it’s not ideal. That being said, we were 25-50 miles from a good event.


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[Mr. Kevin]

Carver, you have updates on the ensembles moving forward?

[PowellVolz]

Also just something to think about…. When arctic air is moving across the country, the mods can have a hard time picking up on waves that are imbedded in the flow. I remember several years ago we had arctic air in place and we were tracking a couple of big systems. The systems were several days apart but between the systems a inverted trough was sniffed out 48 hours before it hit and Knoxville got 4-6” off of it.


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[John1122]

I'll take a fresh helping of the EPS control.  Can't be taken verbatim but as mentioned before, shows the potential of the pattern with an active under cutting jet and Arctic cold coming down due to a nice Pacific set up and blocking above us. 

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS is bringing the good stuff so far this run...

[codgator]

Can’t wait - it’s going to be a fun 3 weeks of tracking

 

[John1122]

Hopefully the storm the GFS just tossed out becomes a steady feature across modeling. Models have been decent with storms around this time frame but as always, track is a last day kind of thing. 

[Carvers Gap]

Really there are two boomers within the next week on that run.  NE blizzard and then a potent slider.  Either, both, or none could impact this region....better that just “none” as an option at this point!  As John notes, modeling has really wanted to deepen storms along the coast.  Tnweathernut also stated it’s a matter of time before something phases.  

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, you have updates on the ensembles moving forward?

I thought they all looked very  good.  At some point, I do think we see the MJO begin to move.  JB had a great write-up on that today.  MJO plots could get wild as we potentially will have convection in two different MJO regions (5/2?).  The Australian has a new look where it takes the tour during the second half of the month.  No other model has that.  The Australian MJO has been woeful at times this winter, so I am not holding my breath waiting for a correct solution with it.  We could see a major shift in medium and LR modeling if that BOM look persists.  For now, I suspect that we could stay cold, even in the warm MJO phases if the Australian MJO is correct for the second half of the month.  That has occurred before during one of the 90s winters...maybe 95-96?  Can't remember.  To me, looks like cold is coming and storms as well, regardless of the MJO look right now.  I think we can get to the end of the month in good shape, but slightly shaky ground in saying that.  Patterns normally run 4-6 weeks.  By the end of Jan, we are pushing the limits at how long this pattern can hold.  Not saying the next pattern is worse BTW.  I suspect the next pattern pulls the cold into the center of the country or back into the front range.  I bet it pushes more than it did during December if that is the case.

The 18z GFS is where we want this to go.  Looks crazy good.

[Carvers Gap]

To me the storm track looks good in the medium and long range.  That doesn't mean we get every storm, but during so many of the past few winters, the track has been less than optimal.  

[codgator]

Need those big 1040 1045 HP pushing south to keep the cold locked. I’ll take a slow moving slider over those mega miller A’s any day here in Middle Tn.

 

[John1122]

The GFS is moving forward in time with big time blocking. Its moved from 300 to around 240 now. Just keep reeling it in. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

We need to try and squeeze out a thunder clap or two over the mts as this heads east tonight:

 

You know, just for fun.... 

 

[PowellVolz]

We need to try and squeeze out a thunder clap or two over the mts as this heads east tonight:
 
You know, just for fun.... 
 

That ole lightning in the winter thingy…

[Holston_River_Rambler]

If we can get thunder and lightning, while there is still old snow on the ground, and rain falling, I think that would be a whole new folklore sign. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Kind of surprised there isn't any talk on the NWS or media of possible freezing rain over parts of East TN.

 

Maybe the low level warm air will win out. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like the temps are rising pretty quickly, so hopefully it won't matter:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

In other news the overnight Euro shows the possibility of a couple of "waves riding a front" scenarios. 

 

 

GFS doesn't want anything to do with the first one and the CMC doesn't want anything to do with the second one. The pieces of energy on the Euro that cause the wave are pretty small, so not sure ensembles are much help. Just something to watch for. 

 

SOI still dropping and negative, at -27 this AM. 

I like the Euro's RMM this AM. It seems to think we just keep doing what we've been doing and maybe do it all over again. It brings uus right back to where we are now late month, lol. 

Ye olden BOM does pretty much the same, but at a lower amplitude, then takes us through 1 and 2:

 

North American models still haven't updates from the CPC's source. 

Convection near Polynesia for the past 2 days looks steady as she goes:

 

Overnight long range ensemble patterns, for interested parties:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

And finally, just saw someone bring up the RGEM at southernwx, so I'll throw this out there too:

The CMC shows the energy continuing to slide SE after this interaction and the NAM has little to no interaction, but something to watch I guess. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

In other news the overnight Euro shows the possibility of a couple of "waves riding a front" scenarios. 

 

 

GFS doesn't want anything to do with the first one and the CMC doesn't want anything to do with the second one. The pieces of energy on the Euro that cause the wave are pretty small, so not sure ensembles are much help. Just something to watch for. 

 

SOI still dropping and negative, at -27 this AM. 

I like the Euro's RMM this AM. It seems to think we just keep doing what we've been doing and maybe do it all over again. It brings uus right back to where we are now late month, lol. 

Ye olden BOM does pretty much the same, but at a lower amplitude, then takes us through 1 and 2:

 

North American models still haven't updates from the CPC's source. 

Convection near Polynesia for the past 2 days looks steady as she goes:

 

Overnight long range ensemble patterns, for interested parties:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

With the Sst profile now warmed into the 7-8 area, it makes sense. If the warming progressing it should further stronger eastward progression later on. May end up with a good winter here on, or at least up into Feb. especially with blocking appearing likely setting up too.