Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[nrgjeff]

Carvers nails the serious weather discussion above. MJO and Tele-connections are supportive. 

To strengthen the thunderstorms to snow method, we're going to need tornado watches with the MLK Day weekend system.

Then we can have snow in the 11-20 day, lol!

[Carvers Gap]

Man, would have liked to have seen where the end of that 12z CMC run was heading.  

[Vol4Life]

37 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Man, would have liked to have seen where the end of that 12z CMC run was heading.  

No joke!  That low sitting on the FL panhandle is intriguing!  I haven’t paid much attention to the CMC this winter.  How has it been fairing? 

[tnweathernut]

22 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

No joke!  That low sitting on the FL panhandle is intriguing!  I haven’t paid much attention to the CMC this winter.  How has it been fairing? 

It wasn't just that, but at 500 you could see the two streams beginning to phase.  Fantasy land, but not an unreasonable solution given where modeling takes us in the LR.  

Also, the Jan 15th period looked a bit closer than I remember it on the GFS and CMC yesterday.  

[Carvers Gap]

35 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

No joke!  That low sitting on the FL panhandle is intriguing!  I haven’t paid much attention to the CMC this winter.  How has it been fairing? 

CMC has done well.  It has a cold bias, but decent.  Other modeling has been close during that time frame.  The way the 12z GEFS and GEPS ensembles looked at 12z, one would expect multiple storms in the east with that look.  

[EastTNWeatherAdmirer]

It was really the HRRR, Nam 3km, SREF(blend), and a couple of RAP runs that really nailed this one with the SREF really catching the extent of the snow to the Northwest. Credit goes to the Nam and HRRR for catching the warm nose and the undermining of dry air(nam3km) beginning over the southern plateau. HRRR 11z Thursday Kutchera snowfall was the ultimate and overall winner.  Merit hasn’t been lost in the other models for short range, however. This was a really unique event with an especially difficult setup for the valley. Perhaps sometimes in the past you have seen the exact opposite happen: with the HRRR and Nam3km showing a drier and warmer profile than reality with precip and cold winning the battle. Perhaps the Nam 3km isn’t the most intelligent model overall, just in this case. It was just it’s nature to catch a warm frontal sector of air and that’s what happened. I think terrain over the plateau, SE Ky Mtns, and SW VA Virginia Mtns and the smoky mountains may have had something to do with this outcome. This also may have something to do with the idea of the storm's fast movement trumping the forcing, as MRX pointed out. If the entire southeast US was flat, I think most East TN wouldn’t have seen the 4-7 KY saw but instead may have seen a widespread 2”-3.5.” The smoky mountains funneled warm and dry air advection north which in turn allowed a broader surface low to propagate slightly further north and east than expected. The plateau and Cumberland Gap Mtns enhanced the temp and dry air gradient with, generally, those to the north of the SW VA, SE KY line seeing a fully saturated column with suitably cold temperatures which also enhanced rates and total accumulations. 

[Daniel Boone]

28 minutes ago, EastTNWeatherAdmirer said:

It was really the HRRR, Nam 3km, SREF(blend), and a couple of RAP runs that really nailed this one with the SREF really catching the extent of the snow to the Northwest. Credit goes to the Nam and HRRR for catching the warm nose and the undermining of dry air(nam3km) beginning over the southern plateau. HRRR 11z Thursday Kutchera snowfall was the ultimate and overall winner.  Merit hasn’t been lost in the other models for short range, however. This was a really unique event with an especially difficult setup for the valley. Perhaps sometimes in the past you have seen the exact opposite happen: with the HRRR and Nam3km showing a drier and warmer profile than reality with precip and cold winning the battle. Perhaps the Nam 3km isn’t the most intelligent model overall, just in this case. It was just it’s nature to catch a warm frontal sector of air and that’s what happened. I think terrain over the plateau, SE Ky Mtns, and SW VA Virginia Mtns and the smoky mountains may have had something to do with this outcome. This also may have something to do with the idea of the storm's fast movement trumping the forcing, as MRX pointed out. If the entire southeast US was flat, I think most East TN wouldn’t have seen the 4-7 KY saw but instead may have seen a widespread 2”-3.5.” The smoky mountains funneled warm and dry air advection north which in turn allowed a broader surface low to propagate slightly further north and east than expected. The plateau and Cumberland Gap Mtns enhanced the temp and dry air gradient with, generally, those to the north of the SW VA, SE KY line seeing a fully saturated column with suitably cold temperatures which also enhanced rates and total accumulations. 

Actually, Lee County, Va did miss the warm nose at 850. All Snow with a range of 2.5 to 6" reported. The drying did somewhat, thus the lower totals compared to SE KY.

  Although,better in general catching the dryer,less snow trend the  HRRR was once again too warm and too low on Totals for Lee Co..

[PowellVolz]

It was really the HRRR, Nam 3km, SREF(blend), and a couple of RAP runs that really nailed this one with the SREF really catching the extent of the snow to the Northwest. Credit goes to the Nam and HRRR for catching the warm nose and the undermining of dry air(nam3km) beginning over the southern plateau. HRRR 11z Thursday Kutchera snowfall was the ultimate and overall winner.  Merit hasn’t been lost in the other models for short range, however. This was a really unique event with an especially difficult setup for the valley. Perhaps sometimes in the past you have seen the exact opposite happen: with the HRRR and Nam3km showing a drier and warmer profile than reality with precip and cold winning the battle. Perhaps the Nam 3km isn’t the most intelligent model overall, just in this case. It was just it’s nature to catch a warm frontal sector of air and that’s what happened. I think terrain over the plateau, SE Ky Mtns, and SW VA Virginia Mtns and the smoky mountains may have had something to do with this outcome. This also may have something to do with the idea of the storm's fast movement trumping the forcing, as MRX pointed out. If the entire southeast US was flat, I think most East TN wouldn’t have seen the 4-7 KY saw but instead may have seen a widespread 2”-3.5.” The smoky mountains funneled warm and dry air advection north which in turn allowed a broader surface low to propagate slightly further north and east than expected. The plateau and Cumberland Gap Mtns enhanced the temp and dry air gradient with, generally, those to the north of the SW VA, SE KY line seeing a fully saturated column with suitably cold temperatures which also enhanced rates and total accumulations. 

Warm nose never made it north of 40 or west of 81. Dry air wasn’t really an issue IMO. Carver said MRX explained that the low pressure raced away from its forcing which shut the firehose off south of 40 and east of 24. The dry slot was just the system losing its lift on the south side of it. It makes me wonder had the system stayed with its dynamics would the warm nose been stronger and made it further NE?


.

[Daniel Boone]

7 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Warm nose never made it north of 40 or west of 81. Dry air wasn’t really an issue IMO. Carver said MRX explained that the low pressure raced away from its forcing which shut the firehose off south of 40 and east of 24. The dry slot was just the system losing its lift on the south side of it. It makes me wonder had the system stayed with its dynamics would the warm nose been stronger and made it further NE?


.

Excellent explanation Powell. Makes sense. 

[Wintersnow888]

Just wondering why the Nws seems to have an above normal bias in their 6 -10 day outlook? Or is it just me? I remember they did the same last winter right before we had a long stretch of below normal days. I know the TV Mets usually ( not always- had a fair minded one in St Louis who didn't) say "Unfortunately, it's going to be cold and snowy the next few days,"  but they are talking to an audience of people who mostly prefer warm weather.....but I expect the NWS to be unbiased. Am I wrong? Sorry I should have put this in the Banter thread

[Mr. Kevin]

Carver, would you agree or not that the models are hinting at a big arctic outbreak possibly mid-end of the .month? Just curious what u thought 

[Carvers Gap]

19 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, would you agree or not that the models are hinting at a big arctic outbreak possibly mid-end of the .month? Just curious what u thought 

Yep, models are definitely honking, and so are analog packages and the MJO to some extent.  Obviously, nothing is a certainty, but very strong hints for sure.  The 18z GFS took TRI below freezing at 294 and didn't get back above freezing until 384.  Couple of days with highs in the teens.  The GFS has been very cold in the LR.  Ensembles 500mb patterns would allow for cold to get pretty far south.  Seeing 93-94 and 95-96 show up in analog packages today.  @John1122There is 1994 in the analog package.  It was in the 6-10 as well.

[Carvers Gap]

Obviously singling one run out(at long range) is just speculation on my part.  I am just providing an example of one potential path modeling may settle upon.  After 198, TRI only goes above 40 for (1) six hour time frame until the end of the run - I think.  I would say right now that temps below zero are in the realm of possibility if modeling is anywhere close to being right.  Just going to depend on whether an eastern storm deepens.  If we were to get hit by an inland runner which deepened and sent the cold south...93-94 is within the realm of possibility.  That means snow would be around for days if that transpired.  I remember driving to UT on the interstate from my apartment at Papermill with just one lane of the interstate open.  It was brutal.  I somehow forgot that winter, but John reminded us that winter was brutally cold.  I do remember an afternoon that winter when we had convective snow thunderstorms.  Have never seen that before or since....

A little ahead of myself at this point.  Want to wait a few days before really saying this is likely.  I think the potential is there though.

[Mr. Kevin]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Obviously singling one run out(at long range) is just speculation on my part.  I am just providing an example of one potential path modeling may settle upon.  After 198, TRI only goes above 40 for (1) six hour time frame until the end of the run - I think.  I would say right now that temps below zero are in the realm of possibility if modeling is anywhere close to being right.  Just going to depend on whether an eastern storm deepens.  If we were to get hit by an inland runner which deepened and sent the cold south...93-94 is within the realm of possibility.  I remember driving to UT on the interstate from my apartment at Papermill with just one lane of the interstate open.  It was brutal.  I somehow forgot that winter, but John reminded us that winter was brutally cold.  I do remember an afternoon that winter when we had convective snow thunderstorms.  Have never seen that before or since....

A little ahead of myself at this point.  Want to wait a few days before really saying this is likely.  I think the potential is there though.

I believe it will depend on the epo, ao, and wpo. If they are forecast to trend negative, the likelihood is dramatically increased imo. A guy at storm2k mentioned about the dateline forcing and what is going on and that typically goes in with mod ninos. Just need cold air if the stk is going to be active 

[Kasper]

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yep, models are definitely honking, and so are analog packages and the MJO to some extent.  Obviously, nothing is a certainty, but very strong hints for sure.  The 18z GFS took TRI below freezing at 294 and didn't get back above freezing until 384.  Couple of days with highs in the teens.  The GFS has been very cold in the LR.  Ensembles 500mb patterns would allow for cold to get pretty far south.  Seeing 93-94 and 95-96 show up in analog packages today.  @John1122There is 1994 in the analog package.  It was in the 6-10 as well.

Boy do I remember 84/85, the coldest I’ve ever been and it’s not very hard to remember since we were poor as heck and only had a Outhouse! Trust me -20f and a outhouse you’ll never forget it! 

[Mr. Kevin]

6 minutes ago, Kasper said:

Boy do I remember 84/85, the coldest I’ve ever been and it’s not very hard to remember since we were poor as heck and only had a Outhouse! Trust me -20f and a outhouse you’ll never forget it! 

I was only 5 at the time but from what I understand, it was really cold and stormy. That winter had a pv split and this winter has stretching of the pv at times. 

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, Kasper said:

Boy do I remember 84/85, the coldest I’ve ever been and it’s not very hard to remember since we were poor as heck and only had a Outhouse! Trust me -20f and a outhouse you’ll never forget it! 

LOL.  That sounds cold!!!  

We heated our house at the time with a portable kerosene heater and one wall heater.  The cold was almost like a liquid.  It just seeped into everything.  The insides of our windows froze due to condensation.  Pipes froze.  We had to make sure that the light in the well house was left "on" in order to keep the well head from freezing up.  It was an amazing time.  

[Kasper]

1 minute ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I was only 5 at the time but from what I understand, it was really cold and stormy. That winter had a pv split and this winter has stretching of the pv at times. 

Correct! @Carvers Gapcorrect me if I’m wrong but I remember an epic ice storm in that time frame as well!

[Carvers Gap]

16 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I believe it will depend on the epo, ao, and wpo. If they are forecast to trend negative, the likelihood is dramatically increased imo. A guy at storm2k mentioned about the dateline forcing and what is going on and that typically goes in with mod ninos. Just need cold air if the stk is going to be active 

Oddly, many of the teleconnections during these two storms were not optimum.  I will have to double check JB on this, but he basically said all of them(with the exception of the WPO) were not in the right spot.  I am guessing the potential upcoming cold shot will be EPO and/or Alaskan block driven.  

[Mr. Kevin]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Oddly, many of the teleconnections during these two storms were not optimum.  I will have to double check JB on this, but he basically said all of them(with the exception of the WPO) were not in the right spot.  I am guessing the potential upcoming cold shot will be EPO and/or Alaskan block driven.  

Yes I agree. Definitely Alaska driven, which can deliver very cold air. 13-13 winter was Alaska driven all winter! Carver, you want the Pacific on your side regardless of anything else lol. 

[Mr. Kevin]

Also you want Pacific extension and not retraction. 

[John1122]

1994 had around a 10 day stretch in January that had two minor snows, a moderate ice event and a major snow storm as well as two Siberian express cold shots in the 10 day period.  From the N Plateau into SE Kentucky 8-15 inches of snow fell. It snowed, iced then snowed again with a super Arctic blast.

I remember Knoxville had a massive ice storm with 3 or 4 inches of snow on top of it while more snow fell further north.  The temperature wasn't warm when the event started but Knoxville managed to hit 33 briefly. Once the front passed the temp dropped for 36 straight hours. It was 27 at Midnight on the 18th, 15 at 6am, 13 and 1pm, 10 at 5pm, and 0 at 11:59, down to -4 by 7am on the 19th. 

It was "only" -15 with more snow cover than Knox up here. But under the massive snow pack in Kentucky it was colder than 1985. It was -25 just up the road from our KY posters in London. Shelbyville set the state record at -37 on January 19th 1994. 

I think a lot of people don't remember 1994 because 1995-96 was just incredible for winter weather as well and for a longer stretch than 1994. 

[Mr. Kevin]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

1994 had around a 10 day stretch in January that had two minor snows, a moderate ice event and a major snow storm as well as two Siberian express cold shots in the 10 day period.  From the N Plateau into SE Kentucky 8-15 inches of snow fell. It snowed, iced then snowed again with a super Arctic blast.

I remember Knoxville had a massive ice storm with 3 or 4 inches of snow on top of it while more snow fell further north.  The temperature wasn't warm when the event started but Knoxville managed to hit 33 briefly. Once the front passed the temp dropped for 36 straight hours. It was 27 at Midnight on the 18th, 15 at 6am, 13 and 1pm, 10 at 5pm, and 0 at 11:59, down to -4 by 7am on the 19th. 

It was "only" -15 with more snow cover than Knox up here. But under the massive snow pack in Kentucky it was colder than 1985. It was -25 just up the road from our KY posters in London. Shelbyville set the state record at -37 on January 19th 1994. 

I think a lot of people don't remember 1994 because 1995-96 was just incredible for winter weather as well and for a longer stretch than 1994. 

95-96 winter was good but not great in my location. Feb 1st or 2nd had the coldest temperature ever recorded in the USA of -55 degrees Fahrenheit in embarrass Minnesota and we had a big sleet and ice event. Easily half inch ice. Roads were so bad that me and my father walked 3 miles to the store and luckily a guy in a truck brought us back home. 93 94 had the major icestorm here in my area. Up to 8inches ice!! Was bad. I missed a week of school but I golfed everyday lol.

[Kasper]

Here ya go I thought I had the year right, school was out for 17 days! 

[Mr. Kevin]

16 minutes ago, Kasper said:

Here ya go I thought I had the year right, school was out for 17 days! 

If that was in feb 1994, it was probably the same system we dealt with earlier. We didnt get any bad weather in jan 1994 except maybe a few days cold. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Kasper said:

Correct! @Carvers Gapcorrect me if I’m wrong but I remember an epic ice storm in that time frame as well!

I was in TRI at the time.  There may have been some ice.  The weather was so bad, I just remember there being a layer of ice under the snow for weeks.  Not entirely sure how it got there.  

[Carvers Gap]

49 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Yes I agree. Definitely Alaska driven, which can deliver very cold air. 13-13 winter was Alaska driven all winter! Carver, you want the Pacific on your side regardless of anything else lol. 

Nah, I am an NAO guy myself, but see the Pacific as much more important than I used to, especially given where the AMO is.  @John1122 though is the Pacific guy, and for very good reason.   John has two big things he preaches for in order for us to achiever cold winters....1.  Cold than normal November  2.  Good Pacific.  I soundly concur.  He has kind of one me over on the second point.   When you go look at great winter patterns since the late 80s(and prior), you actually will see a +NAO for some of them.  The -NAO is just a common factor in many BIG coastal storms. But if you want a really cold winter pattern, the Pacific has to be there.  It is very difficult to find a winter where the Pacific was not in our favor.  December was just wonky.  That big Aleutian high in combo with the NAO, oddly locked the cold in the West - very unusual pattern.  If the AMO was in our favor, the Atlantic would be much more important.  Until it switches back, the Pacific is the key.  Now, the NAO is much more effective during the second half of winter.  I don't think I really understood that until this winter.  FTR, you do not want an NAO during summer - HOT!   If we can hit a good -NAO cycle, that corresponds with good winter cycles as well.  It may have more to do with the -NAO being a signature of a disruption of the TPV.  IDK.

[Carvers Gap]

34 minutes ago, Kasper said:

Here ya go I thought I had the year right, school was out for 17 days! 

You should put that in the historical thread.  Very cool.

[Mr. Kevin]

In 13-14 winter, the ao and nao were super positive all winter. Top 10 coldest winters ever btw 

[TellicoWx]

1 hour ago, Kasper said:

Boy do I remember 84/85, the coldest I’ve ever been and it’s not very hard to remember since we were poor as heck and only had a Outhouse! Trust me -20f and a outhouse you’ll never forget it! 

That was when the Tellico River froze solid. My grandmother had pictures of someone driving their truck up the middle of the river on the ice, and people ice fishing at the old bar.