Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z GFS looked awesome from the 15th onward.  Let's see what 12z is about to do.

[Daniel Boone]

12 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

We had a hell of a winter storm on march 5th 2015. 1.86qpf all frozen. We got 2inches sleet and 9 -10inches snow from that system. 

That was the Kentucky monster, lol. 2 feet central Ky.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS continues to advertise a potentially potent winter weather pattern beginning around the 15th.  Both 96-59 and 14-15 and 85-85 all had second half cold shots which produced copious amounts of winter weather for the forum area.  Maybe all three had warm Decembers.   I don't want to hype that timeframe too much, but even Cosgrove mentioned it today.   It could completely go "poof", but I like where modeling is today.  What I would say is that timeframe would certainly fit analogs and what modeling is portraying.  Additionally, the MJO is potentially(not a slam dunk yet) going to rotate back out of 7 and into colder phases or the colder plots of the COD.  Preliminarily, that is our next window or just a continuation of this window(whichever verbiage you prefer).

[Carvers Gap]

For posterity from TYS's climate page...One of the great flips historically that I have seen.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

This is NOT a forecast.  All speculation at this range.  This is an example of what I said above about the pattern after the 15th.  If you are going to draw up a cold, snowy pattern for the Rockies and eastward, this is how it looks.  Blocking up top and see where the trough comes into the Lower 48 and turns eastward (the western Plains)....that is a pattern that would allow for a winter system(s) to track across our area.  That is an EPO driven pattern with a ridge centered just below Greenland.  Go look at some great winters storms in the East, and that is very close to the look.

[Carvers Gap]

One word of caution, sometimes models can erroneously perpetuate a cold pattern.  I "think" that the above is a reflection of the GEFS MJO which is bullish into 8 after this current loop back into 7.  

[Mr. Kevin]

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

That was the Kentucky monster, lol. 2 feet central Ky.

I actually liked that one better than last February for my area. Nice system. All epo driven I believe 

[Mr. Kevin]

Just now, Mr. Kevin said:

I actually liked that one better than last February for my area. Nice system. All epo driven I believe 

Kentucky was in the colder air longer and my area had a warm nose that took longer to erode but 6-8 hours of sleet and 6-8 hours of moderate to heavy snow. Most impressive yet

[Carvers Gap]

300+ 12z GFS is what can happen if a slp deepens with cold air in place.  Teens below zero to end that run.  

[Bigbald]

Posterity sake for Carvers 384 dreamland:

Over the last week GFS has been hinting off and on with some major artic intrusions, at times its been really fun to watch.

[Carvers Gap]

16 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

Posterity sake for Carvers 384 dreamland:

Over the last week GFS has been hinting off and on with some major artic intrusions, at times its been really fun to watch.

That would be extreme for sure.  Pretty sure that is with zero snow on the ground.  We will have to watch as LR modeling is trying to spin-up storms after mid-month.  With so much cold in Canada, wouldn't take much.  For now, definitely fantasy land...but maybe not for my pipes!!!

[nrgjeff]

Welp. At least the ECMWF weeklies are cold out three weeks. Keep trying. Might keep throwing bricks. Maybe hit some baskets.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I was just about to post this happy little gif, lol:

[Carvers Gap]

Pattern looks great from the 15th to roughly the 30th.  Get the EPS looking like what Holston posted, things could be rocking.  What a turn around from last week.  The 30d map on the Euro Weeklies is BN for temps and roughly AN for precip for the forum area. As we have seen this week, AN precip and BN temps is a good combo.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I was just about to post this happy little gif, lol:

Textbook winter pattern.  If I lived on the EC, I would be licking my chops - neg tilt trough over NA.  YAS!!!!

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I was just about to post this happy little gif, lol:

That look is bringing the hammer.

[EastKnox]

My birthday is Jan. 25th.  Every year, the only gift I wish for is a 6"+ snow.  We've not had a good setup for years even close, so we'll see, but if a storm is progged for around the 25th, just know that I have a jinx there.  I might help everyone out by going on a Caribbean vacation for my birthday. 

 

[EastKnox]

And yes, could I take a 500mb trough, with some negative tilt on the side?

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, EastKnox said:

And yes, could I take a 500mb trough, with some negative tilt on the side.

The map that @Bigbaldposted above is wild.  It will change here at 18z most assuredly.  But this is what was under that at 500.  I know you know this, East Knox, but for those new to the forum...this is just for fun since it was so extreme.  

[Jed33]

That looks like the PV coming down into the US to say hi!

[Carvers Gap]

32 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

That looks like the PV coming down into the US to say hi!

18z GFS(several previous runs as well).....What really has me intrigued is the parade of storms with relatively BN temps in place - cold weather plus an active STJ.  Beginning around the 15th(210), I count roughly 4 systems out to 330.  Models hasn't finished running yet.  

[Jed33]

12z GFS was brutally cold. The ironic thing is guess what happened in 1985 at the same time frame today’s 12z gfs indicated the brutal cold! Man, 1984-1985 just keeps popping up all over the pace this winter. It may not happen like that, but gotta say it’s uncanny how common these two winters are. For sure a great analog to this year!

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Jed33 said:

12z GFS was brutally cold. The ironic thing is guess what happened in 1985 at the same time frame today’s 12z gfs indicated the brutal cold! Man, 1984-1985 just keeps popping up all over the pace this winter. It may not happen like that, but gotta say it’s uncanny how common these two winters are. For sure a great analog to this year!

95-96 is sneaking in there.  This snow in middle TN is super similar to one of those storms, just displaced to the west a bit.  We have had two forum snowstorms in one week.  The high temp was 78 here on Saturday.  What a flip!

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Jed33 said:

12z GFS was brutally cold. The ironic thing is guess what happened in 1985 at the same time frame today’s 12z gfs indicated the brutal cold! Man, 1984-1985 just keeps popping up all over the pace this winter. It may not happen like that, but gotta say it’s uncanny how common these two winters are. For sure a great analog to this year!

Not many people remember in the area, but there was a snow event on the Plateau and SE Kentucky on January 5th 1985. I had 3 inches, Williamsburg Kentucky had 3 inches and the Oneida station reports .40 precip with temps of 34-30. It was slightly drier and warmer further east. 

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Not many people remember in the area, but there was a snow event on the Plateau and SE Kentucky on January 5th 1985. I had 3 inches, Williamsburg Kentucky had 3 inches and the Oneida station reports .40 precip with temps of 34-30. It was slightly drier and warmer further east. 

And even more crazy, temps were in the 70s in the eastern Valley on Jan 1.  

[John1122]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And even more crazy, temps were in the 70s in the eastern Valley on Jan 1.  

Yes. The similarities to 84-85 are remarkable. Dec 1995 was colder and more snowy if I remember correctly but 1996 was off to a similar start. 

[Mr. Kevin]

I got close to an inch from today's event. I was on the extreme nw side of everything. Hopefully we get into a better pattern sooner or later that will provide more opportunities for us. 

[John1122]

GFS sniffing at a monster winter storm in the long range. It's been pretty good at spotting storms from a long way out. As Carvers and others have pointed out, we have some major cold lurking around and potentially AN precip as we head into the heart of winter. 

[Carvers Gap]

LR looks good.  The MJO looks good on most of the CPC plots as well.  The ECMWF(bias correction), gets a wee bit too close to phase 6 for my liking.  The GEFS basically stalls the MJO on the border of phase 8 in perpetuity.  The Weeklies look like background cold phases.  The Weeklies do provide an idea of where the Euro MJO is heading - i.e. creates a reasonable bridge from todays plots to the LR.

Not a lot to add.  A bit of a break in tracking right now.  Nearly all ensembles and the GFS operational show a very active and cold pattern beginning around the 15th or 16th.  Cold shot on tap early next week.  I do have my eye on that, but don't see much more than back end flurries at the moment.  Looks like a warm-up from the 13th-15th.

Again, LR modeling has been pretty decent since early December.  So, hopefully they reel in yet another good timeframe for tracking winter storms.

[PowellVolz]

I been on the outside of the line for both storms so far. A little too far south (5 miles) for yesterday and a little too far north west (10 miles) for last week. I ended up with 2.5” on elevated surfaces, around 1.5” on the lawn.


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