Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Dsty2001]

Noticed that is at 10:1 ratios, is it coming in overnight when the temps are supposed to be below 20?  

[John1122]

18 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

Noticed that is at 10:1 ratios, is it coming in overnight when the temps are supposed to be below 20?  

 

It's happening in the day time into evening on the Euro. Temps are in the upper 20s and lower 30s Thursday morning when the state starts seeing frozen. 

[Bigbald]

How cold is the 18z gfs long range? I am not sure ktri gets above freezing from 300 out to 384, and prolly beyond that if it went.

[John1122]

This falls from 1pm to 7pm Thursday. Western areas get 1-2 inches between 7am-1pm.  Plateau to SW VA, down to Loudon/Monroe gets roughly .5-1.5 more from 7pm to 1am. 

[TellicoWx]

0z Nam took a more southern route along the TN border, more of a slider solution.

[John1122]

RGEM'd again. Further south with the frozen like the NAM. After the globals in the next few hours, may be time for another thread. 

[TellicoWx]

Just now, John1122 said:

RGEM'd again. Further south with the frozen like the NAM. After the globals in the next few hours, may be time for another thread. 

Yep, took the 850 along the southern border vs the northern border @18z

[TellicoWx]

Ingredients are there for a nice mid south slider..cold supply, nice 850 LLJ to tap the gulf, not an overly amped 850 (lessens the cut factor)...final recipe revolves around that 850 track and how far the warm nose off the LLJ nudges up the southern valley (if 850 tracks Southern border)

[John1122]

GFS looks to be coming on board with all other modeling. Snowing from Memphis to the Plateau by 10 or so Thursday morning. 

[John1122]

GFS went from a washed out mess to this. 

[TellicoWx]

0z CMC adjust a tad south..takes 850 track thru center of the state

[MattPetrulli]

Seems pretty reasonable to expect 2-5" for Sevier Co on Thursday. I would love if models keep uptrending but 2-5" certainly suffices after the trash winters for the past few years. A lot of the county still without power/having a lot of power issues so have to get it resolved by then. Would be really nice to have another snow that's actually during the day and not at 5 AM though 

[MattPetrulli]

00z Euro 

[John1122]

The Euro maintains the same general idea as 12z and now, all other modeling. 

[Carvers Gap]

In the LR, thought this was interesting.  Weeklies(non-bias corrected...bias corrected is still pretty good with background cold phases):

Message is the next 3 weeks or so look good....then we will see.  Phase 3 is warm for DJF.  But when centered on DFM, it is widespread cold.  I feel comfortable in saying that this not a pattern relaxation, but a pattern change.  Now, that does not mean that we won't revert to this past December's pattern.  That is certainly on the table once this runs its course.  The SER will continue to fight.  AN heights may still well center in the western half of the GOA at times(normal for La Nina as John reminds us).  A three week shot of winter temps/wx is a pretty good look, especially if in January when climatology favors us.

[Carvers Gap]

I like that timeframe from the 15th onward(not that the one right now isn't producing).  But watching the 12z GFS roll, there is room there for an Arctic outbreak.  

[Bigbald]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I like that timeframe from the 15th onward(not that the one right now isn't producing).  But watching the 12z GFS roll, there is room there for an Arctic outbreak.  

Hey Carver, I was looking at the awesome 12 or 18z gfs from yesterday which had some frigid air intruding and staying around around the Jan 15th onward time-frame.  Later runs, I think 0z, had shunted the cold in Canada toward the far eastern areas and eventually away.  Was that eastern shunting the result of a lack of blocking in the Atlantic verse what is depicted on this run (the cold centered over middle canada)?

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I like that timeframe from the 15th onward(not that the one right now isn't producing).  But watching the 12z GFS roll, there is room there for an Arctic outbreak.  

Yeah, good possibility. Also, not so sure this Nina follows typical nina progression in Feb.. At some point, I believe the -NAO will return and actually work for us. Also, some late Nina Winter Storms occurred in '72 and 75. Feb. and March respectively.

     I'm probably wishcasting a bit here, ha ha, but, also looking at a couple 2nd year Ninas that had that progression and presenting the possibility. Also, looking at the -NAO Episodes and extrapolating with it.

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

Hey Carver, I was looking at the awesome 12 or 18z gfs from yesterday which had some frigid air intruding and staying around around the Jan 15th onward time-frame.  Later runs, I think 0z, had shunted the cold in Canada toward the far eastern areas and eventually away.  Was that eastern shunting the result of a lack of blocking in the Atlantic verse what is depicted on this run (the cold centered over middle canada)?

I think modeling is all over the place with the MJO.  From what I can tell, when the MJO rotates back through low amplitude 7, some runs stall it in the COD...some rotate it back through the colder phases either at low amplitude or background cold COD phases.  My guess, the shunting of cold is probably related to whether a storm really amplifies the trough and digs.  I mean, really a cutter(as much as we hate them) would dump the entire thing.  I have been relying on ensembles and then just pick an operational run that looks like the most recent group of ensembles.  The GFS can get sideways after d10 in a hurry which is understandable - plenty of rabbit holes to go down.  Back to the MJO, if it rotates through the MJO like the Euro Weeklies had last night, the models will reflect that over time.  

Speaking of which, the 12z GFS...while it has sputtered in getting its output released, the run looks very cold after the 15th.  Just one run, but good for now.  And have to remember, we don't need the cold to get all of the way to New Orleans and allow for @John1122's favorite weather pattern where it snows in Cajun country(and doesn't here).  

[Carvers Gap]

18 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, good possibility. Also, not so sure this Nina follows typical nina progression in Feb.. At some point, I believe the -NAO will return and actually work for us. Also, some late Nina Winter Storms occurred in '72 and 75. Feb. and March respectively.

     I'm probably wishcasting a bit here, ha ha, but, also looking at a couple 2nd year Ninas that had that progression and presenting the possibility. Also, looking at the -NAO Episodes and extrapolating with it.

Can we just lock this look in now?

 

[Daniel Boone]

28 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Can we just lock this look in now?

 

That's it ! A bit early but... Lol. If that comes to fruition, just say part luck and old school forecasting. Lol

[John1122]

The weeklies snow map. Obviously can't be taken verbatim but shows the potential of the pattern we are looking at over the next several weeks of winter.

[John1122]

You can look at that, see the totals in Illinois, Missouri, Iowa etc and see that the Euro clearly favors, at least as of Monday, a long term storm track that is southern systems, sliders, Miller As etc vs cutters. The blocking patterns we keep seeing showing up, also favors that track. 

[John1122]

The QBO has progressed deeply into the negative, around -24 to -25. Our last progression this deep into the negative in January/February was 2015 when we saw brutal cold and snow/ice in February. 

[Daniel Boone]

Good points as usual John. It's definitely getting very interesting.

[Silas Lang]

5 hours ago, John1122 said:

The QBO has progressed deeply into the negative, around -24 to -25. Our last progression this deep into the negative in January/February was 2015 when we saw brutal cold and snow/ice in February. 

Was this the year we had multiple snow and ice storms? I seem to remember a storm (big and small) nearly every week. I wanna say this was the year that snow and ice was on the ground for what felt like the whole month of February.

[John1122]

7 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

Was this the year we had multiple snow and ice storms? I seem to remember a storm (big and small) nearly every week. I wanna say this was the year that snow and ice was on the ground for what felt like the whole month of February.

 

It turned cold in mid February and there was a winter storm basically every week until March 6th. There was snow on snow, ice on snow and a monster snow event in Middle and West Tennessee that saw people there get 12+ with some near blizzard conditions. There was a lot of sub zero cold too. 

[1234snow]

The weeklies snow map. Obviously can't be taken verbatim but shows the potential of the pattern we are looking at over the next several weeks of winter.

Also appears to imply the storm track would run up the East Coast as well.

18z NAM and RGEM runs were similar for sticking snow for a large portion of our state Thursday evening and night.

[Mr. Kevin]

9 hours ago, John1122 said:

The QBO has progressed deeply into the negative, around -24 to -25. Our last progression this deep into the negative in January/February was 2015 when we saw brutal cold and snow/ice in February. 

The reading for December at 30mb with the qbo was -18.62 from the cpc. I noticed that yesterday. 

[Mr. Kevin]

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

 

It turned cold in mid February and there was a winter storm basically every week until March 6th. There was snow on snow, ice on snow and a monster snow event in Middle and West Tennessee that saw people there get 12+ with some near blizzard conditions. There was a lot of sub zero cold too. 

We had a hell of a winter storm on march 5th 2015. 1.86qpf all frozen. We got 2inches sleet and 9 -10inches snow from that system.