Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Dsty2001 said:

From my experience, snow begets snow 

Weather weenie rule # 54

[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Euro dug the energy for the late week system a bit more at 12z:

Very close to a big one..if the 850 just digs a hair more

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro looks really good for Thursday and Friday - really good.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Very close to a big one..if the 850 just digs a hair more

It was just about there.  

[Carvers Gap]

If we are recruiting a strong 3* (low 4*)QB will a high ceiling, the Euro run for Thursday and Friday is it.    

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here is the 850mb rel. velocity gifified:

 

I don't know though. I'm just not very enthused by the 500mb energy:

 

Late add:

Is the QB from the transfer portal? 

[TellicoWx]

12z vs 06z...decent move south on 850 placement plus that 50kt jet streak pulling into it (12z doesn't blast it north into TN/KY line)...very close to lighting a fuse.

[Carvers Gap]

If anyone has an accumulation map, please post it for the Euro.  WxBell has been a bear to get to load for several days.  Feels like I am on dial-up on that sight today.  it is actually a good look for the accumulation map as well.

[TellicoWx]

[Dsty2001]

Thursday night it's forecast to get down to 18 here, throw in a little precip and that is some high ratio snow right?

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Dsty2001 said:

Thursday night it's forecast to get down to 18 here, throw in a little precip and that is some high ratio snow right?

Glad you said that...got use to snow and 80

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Dsty2001 said:

Thursday night it's forecast to get down to 18 here, throw in a little precip and that is some high ratio snow right?

Man, if it can get some juice to go with that system...might be all snow.  CMC clown map for 12z.  Apologies if it has already been posted.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Those are two pretty similar maps.  Onset for western areas would be around 7:00AM and 4:00:PM Thursday for eastern areas.

[TellicoWx]

Get that 850 and jet streak to stay down at TN southern border and you got another board wide event (GFS is missing that piece vs Euro/CMC)

[TellicoWx]

GEFS doesn't agree with the OP on that 850 piece..hence the mean..better agreement between it and the Euro/CMC Ops

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like the control was even further south than the OP. Having trouble uploading pics right now though. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Whatever was wrong with imgur is fixed now:

 

[Dsty2001]

Lock it in lol

[TellicoWx]

GFS with vs GFS without the Jet streak

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here are the 12z EPS members:

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Lord have mercy, 15z SREF is resolving the shortwave as stronger run over run:

 

Here we go again, I guess...

[nrgjeff]

UK and ECMWF join the chorus for I-40 and I-81 north on Thursday. Looks like all good straight east of Knoxville too. GFS has an odd southern solution; so yes, I'd go with the GEFS. OK in Chatty we are praying for the GFS Op.

Cold air will be in place. Might not start below freezing, but it's not starting at 70. Starting around 40 is doable with an east wind, except for... you know.

ECMWF weeklies in cold for three weeks. Could be a fun January. It has MJO support attm. AN rain Deep South and BN precip here is a good look. Snow holds less moisture. 

[Kentucky]

 

[Mr. Kevin]

Carver, I may have missed it, but how do the ensembles look moving forward?

[Kentucky]

 

[Silas Lang]

According to the Mrx discussion, they are currently not buying the GFS solution. Looks like they are thinking it will play out more like the Euro/Canadian in regards to Thursday/Friday. 

[John1122]

18z RGEM, it's still snowing over most of East Tennessee East of 75 and the 40 corridor N at the end of the run.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Just looking at the Euro Weeklies and the 12z EPS(which has a very short warm-up after Jan 10...not even sure one would call that a legit warm-up), this current pattern(and this is a new pattern I think) will be potentially be sustained maybe through the end of January.  The next 30 days feature below normal(temps) for the entire forum area according to the Euro Weeklies, roughly 1-3 degrees below normal. Mean ridge in the Southwest.  PNA ridge first couple of weeks will retrograde into an EPO ridge through approximately the end of January.  LR posts by me will be fewer in the coming days as we now have a cold pattern.  Hopefully, we actually have short range stuff to discuss and track.  Only fly in the ointment is a BN precip pattern over western forum areas.  E TN is seasonal in terms of precip.  It is by no means a perfect pattern.  I would not be shocked by a severe Arctice outbreak should one of the systems really deepen.

[PowellVolz]

Whatever was wrong with imgur is fixed now:

 

.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z Euro for Thursday: