Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[ladyjmayo]

1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

12z gfs still showing major snow storm around the 5th for east Tennessee. 

That would be a GREAT birthday present to me!  

[Daniel Boone]

As far as the current impending minor threat, I'm rooting for the rgem for obvious reasons. 

     However, providing dry air doesn't consume more qpf than it indicates, the rgem actually looks more realistic with amounts and topographical coverage layout than some of the others, particularly the gfs. 

     The GFS has the entire Valley blanked now. Hard to buy that as quick moving mod. Snshwrs with high ratios will drop a half inch rather fast.

     

[Mr Bob]

This is totally happening since I am heading to Ft Myers for a long weekend on Feb 4! 

[Greyhound]

Seeing some brine on roads in Knoxville

[Weathertree2]

GFS advertising a pattern that just keeps giving lol 

[TellicoWx]

12z CMC pops a low (day later) that is on a similar track as the GFS.

[Bigbald]

It seems like in the last 3 weeks models have shown alot of perfect inland tracks for for the Tennessee Valley in the 7-10 day range only to have the system development much later and further east in the 4-7 day range.    What are the players on the field that suggest we've bucked that trend?

[Carvers Gap]

17 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

It seems like in the last 3 weeks models have shown alot of perfect inland tracks for for the Tennessee Valley in the 7-10 day range only to have the system development much later and further east in the 4-7 day range.    What are the players on the field that suggest we've bucked that trend?

Strong PNA/EPO ridge along with a gradient pattern which is set by a cutter which precedes those systems.  

[PowellVolz]

GFS advertising a pattern that just keeps giving lol 

I wish it would go ahead and give.


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[fountainguy97]

18z hrrr had a wicked meso-low with convective storms across TN tomorrow. Look at this thing.

 

[John1122]

7 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

18z hrrr had a wicked meso-low with convective storms across TN tomorrow. Look at this thing.

 

If it unfolds like that people may score an inch or two in a hurry. It's beginning to show some heavy streaks in places outside the eastern mountains. Especially SE and E Kentucky. It will struggle with the exact placement of the heavy streaks but it shows the potential if you get under one.

[ShawnEastTN]

If it unfolds like that people may score an inch or two in a hurry. It's beginning to show some heavy streaks in places outside the eastern mountains. Especially SE and E Kentucky. It will struggle with the exact placement of the heavy streaks but it shows the potential if you get under one.

3k Nam has had similar looks off and on over the last 24 hours. Hoping for that type of setup like a frontal passage that gets enough lift to drop decent snow rates while passing. Definitely can make for a quick surprise.

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[nrgjeff]

I have little to add for tomorrow because I'm clearly not involved. 

For the Feb. 5-ish storm the GFS and ECMWF are about as close together as Russia and Ukraine negotiators. Hey, at least we're all still talking! Day 8+

Looking ahead seems to be some agreement in a warm Northern Plains cool Southeast US signal deeper into Feb. First 7-10 days of the month that's still cold enough here, before source region concerns build.

[John1122]

GFS with a best case scenario for mby. I've seen vigorous systems like this break off the Plateau and stream into Knoxville before. 

[Daniel Boone]

13 minutes ago, John1122 said:

GFS with a best case scenario for mby. I've seen vigorous systems like this break off the Plateau and stream into Knoxville before. 

I don't know how noticeable it has been to many on the board but, there is a bit of a discrepancy within most models now that began a couple months back.

      If you notice, the linear of the great valley qpf output is not matching up as well as it did a few months ago. 

     At first, it looked like a grid problem but, upon further investigation I found it to be due to "Official" Weather Station Data ingestion.

     The Pennington gap Station in Lee County, of which had been nullified several years ago due to bad management operation of observers there submitting erroneous Data, has been reinstated and is once again presenting flawed Obs and Data.

     I spoke with KMRX regarding this and hopefully will get this taken care of.

    I'm pretty sure more "Official" Stations have been added as well.

   This Data is used in the Model Ingest System and therefore affects the areas of their input locations.

    I'll pass along what and if there's more I find out regarding this.

     

[Wurbus]

Happy Hour lost the storm for next weekend. I'm sure we will see many more fluctuations between now and then. Basically just dry and cold after the front moves through mid-week through 240.

[WinterWonderland]

50 minutes ago, John1122 said:

GFS with a best case scenario for mby. I've seen vigorous systems like this break off the Plateau and stream into Knoxville before. 

Does this Friday/Saturday event warrant a separate thread? 

[Weathertree2]

LR still looks cold; if we manage to put snow on the ground, we are going negative, those are some cold numbers! 

[Silas Lang]

10 minutes ago, WinterWonderland said:

Does this Friday/Saturday event warrant a separate thread? 

Don't think it is going to amount to much for most, but it could be useful for observations and model performance comparison later. I do kind of like having threads regardless, just for the fact it makes it easier to look up similar setups in the future. But I really don't care either way. 

[Windspeed]

RE: Mesoscale, HRRR is really cranking a band over the eastern Valley and Appalachians. That could easily produce 1-3" accumulation with high rates of just a few hours. We're getting into crunch time.

[brewman22001]

It seems that we lose systems often then get them back…..  then watch it bounce all over the place….  I’m thinking Mother Nature likes playing games with us lol.  I’m hopeful that we get this one back and i believe we will.

[John1122]

HRRR has that aggressive band from Kentucky across my house and it pushed it down to North Knox around PowellVolz. 

[PowellVolz]

HRRR has that aggressive band from Kentucky across my house and it pushed it down to North Knox around PowellVolz. 

That looks about right considering downsloping is what gets the valley in NW flow. I do a little better in NNW flow.


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[John1122]

Euro took a huge step southeast with the system next week. Major Apps runner/winter storm for western forum areas vs a cutter up into Illinois at 12z.  The trend this year has been East and South. Maybe another storm in the process of doing that. Another step like this last one and we are looking at something like what the GFS was showing that it lost.

[Carvers Gap]

Don't look now, but the 6z GEFS sort of has the 0z Euro look which had the old GFS look which the GFS lost after having it in the d15-16 time frame.  LOL.  Modeling is back and forth between cutters and a eastern TN Valley cutter.  I am beginning to lean Apps runner or eastern Valley cutter.  Makes sense given that is a favored La Nina track, and modeling trend that way overnight.  

In the LR, you really can't ask for a better look on all three ensembles or February.  Sure, it could be a mirage, but if you inject cold into a traditionally active February pattern...fireworks are going to be a likely result.  Might be a fun month.

[PowellVolz]

Don't look now, but the 6z GEFS sort of has the 0z Euro look which had the old GFS look which the GFS lost after having it in the d15-16 time frame.  LOL.  Modeling is back and forth between cutters and a eastern TN Valley cutter.  I am beginning to lean Apps runner or eastern Valley cutter.  Makes sense given that is a favored La Nina track, and modeling trend that way overnight.  
In the LR, you really can't ask for a better look on all three ensembles or February.  Sure, it could be a mirage, but if you inject cold into a traditionally active February pattern...fireworks are going to be a likely result.  Might be a fun month.

Seems like we talked before the season started that this pattern favored west and middle Tennessee. Looks like that is working out for them. They can’t all cut can they? I mean… odds are we keep getting these systems and one of them will accidentally move up the right side of the mountains right?


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[bearman]

Looks like the current radar is virga.  I am under returns of 30 DBZ and nothing on the surface.  

[Carvers Gap]

35 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Seems like we talked before the season started that this pattern favored west and middle Tennessee. Looks like that is working out for them. They can’t all cut can they? I mean… odds are we keep getting these systems and one of them will accidentally move up the right side of the mountains right?


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Pacific dominated ridging without Atlantic blocking is cutter city.  It is why folks in middle and west TN like the PNA/EPO ridges.  We(in E TN) really need Atlantic blocking to accentuate the pattern here.  That said a combo of a cutter and a caboose system following will suffice or a 50/50 low.  Also, if we get a ridge out west which isn't too tall, we can get clippers or northern stream systems.  In E TN it is more of a nickel and dime your way to average approach.  

...All of that said, the 6s GEFS has really beefed up its snow mean.  I suspect (certainly don't guarantee) that February could be a good month.  February of 14-15 was really good.  CPC has flipped us cold for the second week of January.  Here are the analogs for the d8-14.  I accidentally found this analog a couple of days ago when I entered in January 85 as January 84.  January 84 is nearly a perfect analog.  

@John1122anything spectacular in January/February of 84?  I remember those months as being ho-hum...but I was young and could be wrong.  It is triple weighted in yesterday's analog package.

 

[Wurbus]

12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Pacific dominated ridging without Atlantic blocking is cutter city.  It is why folks in middle and west TN like the PNA/EPO ridges.  We(in E TN) really need Atlantic blocking to accentuate the pattern here.  That said a combo of a cutter and a caboose system following will suffice or a 50/50 low.  Also, if we get a ridge out west which isn't too tall, we can get clippers or northern stream systems.  In E TN it is more of a nickel and dime your way to average approach.  

...All of that said, the 6s GEFS has really beefed up its snow mean.  I suspect (certainly don't guarantee) that February could be a good month.  February of 14-15 was really good.  CPC has flipped us cold for the second week of January.  Here are the analogs for the d8-14.  I accidentally found this analog a couple of days ago when I entered in January 85 as January 84.  January 84 is nearly a perfect analog.  

@John1122anything spectacular in January/February of 84?  I remember those months as being ho-hum...but I was young and could be wrong.  It is triple weighted in yesterday's analog package.

 

I do like the upcoming potential pattern. With that being said, there was 1 GEFS member that plastered East TN with 24+ inches that is skewing the snow mean I think.

[8283 El Nino Baby]

The cold air really does squeeze out the moisture. It is 29 on the central plateau a with flurries of dime sized flakes. I know we are not expected to get much accumulations this evening, but hoping for an overperformance.