Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[John1122]

Last 4 Euro runs that reach 18z Hr 90. 

See a trend?

[PowellVolz]

Last 4 Euro runs that reache 18z Hr 90. 
See a trend?

I keep getting this with some posts on here




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[John1122]

8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I keep getting this with some posts on here




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Check now. I used a different hosting site. 

[PowellVolz]

Check now. I used a different hosting site. 

Got it


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[Carvers Gap]

36 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I keep getting this with some posts on here




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Image not found....Must be a GFS storm map for this weekend.  

[Carvers Gap]

52 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Last 4 Euro runs that reach 18z Hr 90. 

See a trend?

LOL.  This is heading for Nashville!    Last storm had nearly the same trend.  Odd that the GFS is not picking it up.  I feel mildly better now that the ICON has it.  

[*Flash*]

Honestly, I would not have guessed BNA would be doing better snow total-wise than many along I-44 heading across I-70 into Indiana. This won't hold up...but for now, it's an interesting map in time. 

[Utvols235]

Honestly, I would not have guessed BNA would be doing better snow total-wise than many along I-44 heading across I-70 into Indiana. This won't hold up...but for now, it's an interesting map in time. 

Maybe for banter but poor Chattanooga lol. I hope we can cash in on something


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[TellicoWx]

Since watching the NBM the last 2 systems, it seems to get the area...but is really conservative on totals. So the 0z run is interesting. 0z 120 hr

[John1122]

The NAM was a bit west/north with its precip field vs 18z. 

18z had frozen in Central NC at 84, 0z at 78 has it over Johnson Co Tennessee. 

 

 

[TellicoWx]

Good example of how conservative it is on accum maps, look at the KY/IL/IN area. Most models right now have at least a 2" swath thru there for the mid week system. But the NBM only puts out .5". So for it to be putting out 2" amounts in our area 5 days out seems like pretty loud honking from it.

[John1122]

9 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Since watching the NBM the last 2 systems, it seems to get the area...but is really conservative on totals. So the 0z run is interesting. 0z 120 hr

That's a bump from 18z. 

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Good example of how conservative it is on accum maps, look at the KY/IL/IN area. Most models right now have at least a 2" swath thru there for the mid week system. But the NBM only puts out .5". So for it to be putting out 2" amounts in our area 5 days out seems like pretty loud honking from it.

How close was it for the storm that just passed. I know it looked like it was going to score a coup but think the back side may have doomed it. 

[Utvols235]

 

Ok that’s 7 years ago. What’s your point? Just highlighting the area west of Chatt and the small dot right on Chattanooga metro. Been a pretty decent year for a lot of people this year.


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[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

That's a bump from 18z. 

Yeah thats another thing that surprised me..it moves at very slow increments up and down. It nearly doubled from 18z.

[TellicoWx]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

How close was it for the storm that just passed. I know it looked like it was going to score a coup but think the back side may have doomed it. 

It had the areas right all way from AR to MS to TN, but was low to very low (depending on area) 

[Coach B]

14 minutes ago, John1122 said:

How close was it for the storm that just passed. I know it looked like it was going to score a coup but think the back side may have doomed it. 

It was almost ridiculously low for my area. It was so consistently low I questioned what in the world it was blending? Not any of the models I was checking.

[John1122]

21 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

It had the areas right all way from AR to MS to TN, but was low to very low (depending on area) 

Looking at it from 06z Sunday, it was probably 25-50 percent light here and Scott Co. Was way light in the Central and So Valley. 

[ShawnEastTN]

It was almost ridiculously low for my area. It was so consistently low I questioned what in the world it was blending? Not any of the models I was checking.

Same here, technically got 4 times the amount modeled IMBY. I think it's a great concept for modeling but I think bias and climatology at least in some instances are possibly over emphasized in it's calculations, and maybe not emphasized enough in other situations.

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[John1122]

18z GFS to 0z GFS. Slight NW shift. 

[John1122]

The Euro is going to be pretty from the Plateau to the mountains. Frigid and snowy. 

[John1122]

She's a beaut, Clark!

[John1122]

I probably won't have any P-Type issues. Remainder are at worst in the 20s during the snow. 

 

[John1122]

The Euro control is just about a clone of the OP. 

[Uncle Nasty]

She's a beaut, Clark!

Let's hope the Euro is correct. I'd like to see a ground sticking snow here. I guess I shouldn't complain about Sunday getting close to an inch on the ground. At least it was something to see for change. Reel this one in John so we can see a completely white ground down here!

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[Holston_River_Rambler]

If we can get the GFS to do this with the weekend (and that is a big IF, we can't jinx it by saying it is a done deal), we should be good:

again we just don't want it too NW, lol. The 6z was slightly NW of what John noted at 0z. If that trend continues, I should be able to make a nice gif showing it by 18z.

6z GEFS already seems to have some members with a Euro like solution:

 

6z GEFS members:

 

[PowellVolz]

This should probably be banter but the moon is huge this more. This picture doesn’t really show it.




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[Carvers Gap]

MRX morning discussion....

Next round of weather looks to possibly be more impactful, but
unfortunately at this time there is still some major differences in
deterministic models, and ensemble guidance. Models are in somewhat
good agreement that there will be a southward diving trough across
the plains, and a surface low developing near the northern GoM.
Biggest difference in the models (at this point) is how strong and
how far south to take the mid level low, either through the Ohio or
Tennessee Valley. If the weaker GFS solution verifies, then expect
cold, but mostly dry conditions... If the stronger ECMWF solution
verifies the low goes more over the Tennessee Valley and
precipitation will make it up to the western side of the Southern
Appalachians. Temperatures will remain at or below freezing across
the area until later in the day on Saturday, so any precipitation
that does occur Friday into Saturday will likely be mainly snow. Am
not quite yet ready to bite off on the snowier ECMWF solution, as it
appears to be under-doing the downsloping that would occur Friday
into Friday night if it verifies. Again, still a lot on uncertainty
on IF it will even precipitate at all, but it will be worth keeping
an eye out on this weekend system as it gets closer.

[PowellVolz]

MRX morning discussion....Next round of weather looks to possibly be more impactful, butunfortunately at this time there is still some major differences indeterministic models, and ensemble guidance. Models are in somewhatgood agreement that there will be a southward diving trough acrossthe plains, and a surface low developing near the northern GoM.Biggest difference in the models (at this point) is how strong andhow far south to take the mid level low, either through the Ohio orTennessee Valley. If the weaker GFS solution verifies, then expectcold, but mostly dry conditions... If the stronger ECMWF solutionverifies the low goes more over the Tennessee Valley andprecipitation will make it up to the western side of the SouthernAppalachians. Temperatures will remain at or below freezing acrossthe area until later in the day on Saturday, so any precipitationthat does occur Friday into Saturday will likely be mainly snow. Amnot quite yet ready to bite off on the snowier ECMWF solution, as itappears to be under-doing the downsloping that would occur Fridayinto Friday night if it verifies. Again, still a lot on uncertaintyon IF it will even precipitate at all, but it will be worth keepingan eye out on this weekend system as it gets closer.

It’s interesting that they went with their blended model for the Wednesday night system which they have been leaning on heavily lately but didn’t mention it for Friday after it showed a snowier solution.


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[PowellVolz]

UK has a monster but it’s from the mountains to the coast.

12z….



00z…..




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