Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Through 75, the Euro looks a lot like the GFS on the 500 sort maps. Much stronger than its last full run at 0z.

[Carvers Gap]

At 84, the Euro is indeed allowing the system to dig a bit more.  Much more organized.

[Carvers Gap]

At 96, the trend to dig more to the west-southwest is evident.  

[Carvers Gap]

At 96 Pivotal has a low sitting over Mobile, Alabama. 

[Reb]

Euro might best the GFS 

[Carvers Gap]

At 117, here she goes.  Snow along the northern shield in MS, Alabama, Georgia, and southern TN.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Comparison gif from 0z to 12z today time stamp is 18z Sunday:

[Weathertree2]

  On 1/11/2022 at 6:26 PM, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Comparison gif from 0z to 12z today time stamp is 18z Sunday:

Expand  

Need that NW jog 

 

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro is definitely northwest.  Snow along the northern shield from Alabama, Georgia, and E TN.  Chattanooga now officially has a storm to track.

[TellicoWx]

Don't want to be anywhere near the bullseye at this range lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

That's a pretty energy pass. And, what's more, another vort is really trying to catch it:

 

977 in Souther New Jersey:

[Carvers Gap]

Very sharp cutoff from 75/81 westward.  As @TellicoWx notes, that is right where we want it.  Room to move.  That was a massive shift northwest.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Verbatim a bomb. Drops 30mb in 24 hours

[John1122]

The Euro is very closely following the GFS but a run or two behind. That looks a lot like the 06z GFS run.

[Carvers Gap]

That storm is 977 over Delmarva at 144.  That is a big storm models are eyeing this weekend.  Chances are, they are not done seeing how strong it is.  Good to have the Euro just a hair to the east.

[Carvers Gap]

Here is a three slide sequence.  12z is on the left.  0z is on the right, hours 126-132-138.  BIG move...

[nrgjeff]

12Z GFES mean is closer to the 12Z ECMWF Op solution. Stick that warm tongue somewhere else!

[TellicoWx]

12z GFS is a thing of beauty...you can see how the 12z Euro isn't quite as tightened up...definitely like where we are sitting. Anyone under that comma head on the GFS is in for a treat.

[Carvers Gap]

Clown map.  With the storm trending strong, would very much suspect the west side of the Apps would get much more. Honestly, the hourly precip type maps look great.

 

[Carvers Gap]

What was on all three global ensembles is a major winter storm.  No idea if that holds or if it trends west more, but that is a big storm.

[Carvers Gap]

Somewhere about right now a poster from Georgia is saying something about phase 7 being the best time for snow in Atlanta. @John1122, that is uncanny. 

[nrgjeff]

I'm preparing for Chattanooga flurries while Calhoun, GA gets a foot. Atlanta gets missed too, lol!

  On 1/11/2022 at 6:46 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Somewhere about right now a poster from Georgia is saying something about phase 7 being the best time for snow in Atlanta. @John1122, that is uncanny. 

Expand  

Extreme cynicism is a Chattanooga defense mechanism. 

[Daniel Boone]

  On 1/11/2022 at 6:46 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Somewhere about right now a poster from Georgia is saying something about phase 7 being the best time for snow in Atlanta. @John1122, that is uncanny. 

Expand  

Yep. That goes along with that nina southern route. Im rooting for the GFS but, EC is probable route, imo.

[TellicoWx]

  On 1/11/2022 at 6:46 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Somewhere about right now a poster from Georgia is saying something about phase 7 being the best time for snow in Atlanta. @John1122, that is uncanny. 

Expand  

Can't remember the posters name, but was on the old boards years ago. He lived in Atlanta and had one of the best databases for that area I have ever seen. From what I remember (cause it surprised us then)..COD had actually produced alot of their big time storms.

[Chattownsnow]

  On 1/11/2022 at 6:51 PM, TellicoWx said:

Can't remember the posters name, but was on the old boards years ago. He lived in Atlanta and had one of the best databases for that area I have ever seen. From what I remember (cause it surprised us then)..COD had actually produced alot of their big time storms.

Expand  

Gawx. A treasure trove of useful data 

[Carvers Gap]

  On 1/11/2022 at 6:49 PM, nrgjeff said:

I'm preparing for Chattanooga flurries while Calhoun, GA gets a foot. Atlanta gets missed too, lol!

 

Expand  

That is what I like to call the "school car line" snow - meaning from forty miles away I can see Roan Mtn and snow from the school car line.  LOL.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z EPS low clusters:

[Greyhound]

  On 1/11/2022 at 6:57 PM, Chattownsnow said:

Gawx. A treasure trove of useful data 

Expand  

 

Does he run the "DaculaWx" twitter and websites?  Is this the same guy?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS members through hour 138:

 

[Chattownsnow]

  On 1/11/2022 at 7:02 PM, Greyhound said:

 

Does he run the "DaculaWx" twitter and websites?  Is this the same guy?

Expand  

I don’t think that is actually the same person but I could be wrong.