Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Mr. Kevin said:

If the alutian ridge is as strong as December, which pumped the -pna, its game over for the se imo. Hopefully that dont happen or something to override the mjo, like you alluded to.

Oddly, we get a ridge in that area during La Nina's, but just not often in the Aleutians at that strength.  When I went back and researched good winter patterns for here, there is often one super close to where that one was if I remember correctly - just not in that spot(a bit northwest of normal).  I actually think the really strong -NAO blocked the cold from coming eastward.  The configuration of the double block was a problem.  Normally a double block is money.  The NAO is a much better signal for us during the second half of winter.  That strength of that Aleutian high was what was unusual.  Thankfully, it is gone for the time being.  Many great winters often had very warm Decembers.  Some even had that same Aleutian high.  This La Nina is now behaving properly.  Cold came before the mid-point of winter.  Extremes have been seen both in temp, but also severe.  

Oddly, the winter weather pattern I dread to see ever return is that of 1989-90.  Great start, but the outdoor pools at UT were open maybe in February of '90.  That is the pattern we want no part of....

And really, within 6 weeks it is game over for most of us anyway.  LOL.  It will be spring!!!!

[John1122]

1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

Has anyone developed a teleconnection hierarchy/checklist/diagram for what trumps what teleconnection-wise? This post makes me want to research primary pattern drivers in snowy/colder winters during the past 30 years. For instance, we've seen -NAO/-AO trump ENSO and -EPO's trump +AO/+NAO's. Part of me wonders if the seasonal theme is volatility, a highly amped pattern can lead to 'anything is possible 'results. Granted, I understand this a 2D request when reality is more 4D. 

My favorite is a well positioned +EPO. It drives frigid cold down it's right flank. Last year it did it more from the Plateau, west. In 2015 it did it for most all of the East. Last year it was record cold in a lot of the South from Texas to Alabama and points North while the MJO hung around Phase 6.

[Mr. Kevin]

14 minutes ago, John1122 said:

My favorite is a well positioned +EPO. It drives frigid cold down it's right flank. Last year it did it more from the Plateau, west. In 2015 it did it for most all of the East. Last year it was record cold in a lot of the South from Texas to Alabama and points North while the MJO hung around Phase 6.

John, it definitely wasn't a +epo last February lol. Hopefully you had a typo lol. -ao was the main thing because it went extremely negative last February. Good to see 

[John1122]

9 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

John, it definitely wasn't a +epo last February lol. Hopefully you had a typo lol. -ao was the main thing because it went extremely negative last February. Good to see 

I meant -EPO.  

[Bigbald]

[John1122]

That was an epic GFS run, I've never seen a storm take quite that path before and can't imagine this one will, but dang what a site it would be if it did.

[TellicoWx]

Oh Canada lol 

[TellicoWx]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

That was an epic GFS run, I've never seen a storm take quite that path before and can't imagine this one will, but dang what a site it would be if it did.

CMC is very close to a copy of the GFS

[John1122]

Yes, both take a western path, then transfer to a coastal. The GFS made it further south and transferred further west so it was better for Tennessee. After the handoff it winds up NAM style and crushes the deep south from Georgia to the Carolinas. We need a SW trend to continue! With this type of storm the trend is far more likely to be NE with the initial low.

[John1122]

Pretty good agreement that a 1-4 inch type system is possible for the weekend. Granted, we won't be sure until the last minute, as the track is more fickle with these systems than a slider type system where temps are the major issue and not the exact track of the low.

[Reb]

GFS fixing to spit out a monster

[John1122]

GFS is even further W and S at 06 and is gonna get Arkansas and blast Memphis too. Have to see how she heads East.

[John1122]

Gonna be a south of 40 special it looks like. I don't think I've ever seen a northern stream system drop in like this one.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It's crazy how the last two runs of the GFS have turned it into a full blown Miller A type coastal, instead of an OTS suppressed storm. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

0z Euro wasn't really there yet, but IMO it did trend that way, with the energy dropping in more westerly and trying to round the trough:

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z GFS was an inland runner, Miller A.  It actually would hammer most of E TN.  Not sure it has support from other modeling, but wow!

[Carvers Gap]

Now, take the northwest jog of the last storm and apply it to this one.  IF(and it is a big IF) the 6z GFS is correct, a 987mb slp west of Hatteras is going to throw back more moisture than was presented.  

[Carvers Gap]

While the 6z GFS is a great run, it has absolutely zero support from GEFS mslp low placement.  Let's see if it is on to a trend.  I would think if it was trending NW, that at least a few members would represent that operational run.  Fun run though!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I don't know, I think there is a little support from the 6z GEFS members:

Sorry for the horrible resolution, but it's all I've got. But there are a few members who take a similar track

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I zoomed in on my 3 favorites for something a little easier to see:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z Euro keeps the energy more intact than the 0z Euro and it is barreling towards the western Gulf at the end of its run: (edited to add the 6z GFS for comparison)

 

[fountainguy97]

As per usual with a large southern storm every option is on the table and will be for at least another 48hrs. 

GEFS and eps both have anything from a clipper style to a suppressed non-event to a classic Miller A.

Until we see ensembles narrow down to a couple of solutions I'll be sitting back. The good news is I almost always go by the "middle road" solution. And that middle scenario would mean a significant storm for portions of the South! 

The gfs has a sneaky NW flow event here in a few days. 

[Carvers Gap]

42 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I don't know, I think there is a little support from the 6z GEFS members:

Sorry for the horrible resolution, but it's all I've got. But there are a few members who take a similar track

No Miller As on the 6z GEFS that I can see.  Unfortunately, the SLP placement inside Hatteras is not there nor is the timing.  I can't find a single MSLP member that tracks inland or moves as slow as the operational.  Now that said, when the 6z Euro ended its run at 90 on WxBell, it was digging out West in the same way the GFS did at 6z.  Second image is the slp placement on the GFS.  The first image is the GEFS hour which has the closes cluster to the coast.  The rest are pretty far away from the coast.  Now, E TN can still get snow without the 6z GFS low placement.  That particular solution doesn't have support yet.  We really need this to dig to the west if we want a Miller A.  That said, a system dropping through TN and building a slp along the coast would give SE areas an opportunity as well.  

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It would be interesting to see how weatherbell and weathermodels create their plots:

I'm seeing a few lows that take a track similar to the 6z OP. 

[Carvers Gap]

So the real question is whether the 6z GFS, which is on the far west side of its own suite, is on to something in terms of a trend?  I definitely like where the Euro was heading at 6z.  All eyes to 12z.  It is quite plausible that the operationals are leading the way on this.  My only concern with the GFS is that it got a bit too "wound up" during the last two systems.  It overdid precip badly in NE TN.  The one positive is that it was about 2-3 runs ahead of the Euro in identifying trends 2-3 days out even if it was too wound up.  

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

It would be interesting to see how weatherbell and weathermodels create their plots:

I'm seeing a few lows that take a track similar to the 6z OP. 

I just don't see an inland runner that gets inside of Hatteras, maybe e26 is closest which looks similar to the one off Hatteras by WxBell.  The operational "I think" is on the far western side of its own suite.  But again, the operational could be catching the trend first, and that wouldn't surprise me.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

 The operational "I think" is on the far western side of its own suite.

Oh I agree the OP is far west, 100%. I guess I was just looking for something on the ensembles that suggested the energy was taking a similar track to the OP and popping a low that ran from vaguely New Orleans to somewhere near the Outer Banks. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Let us take a moment to gaze at the energy for this potential storm:

 

Lookin' fat and sassy north of Hawaii 

[TellicoWx]

6z GEFS was a nice improvement over 0z GEFS. As WPC noted in their extended discussion, the GEFS was north of the OP with its tracking (only a couple members had any type of surface reflection near the gulf). 6z has almost half the members showing some type of reflection there now. With most of those cutting across the FL peninsula between Jacksoville and Orlando. 

[TellicoWx]

WPC

Overall the trend continues to be southward in the deterministic models especially, as shown by the 12/18Z GFS and ECMWF, while the 12Z CMC was well north (00Z CMC has come south). Guidance for the most part takes the surface low across the Southeast before turning northeastward over the Atlantic. Ensemble mean guidance is a bit farther north with the low center, and felt like following closer to their track for the surface low was a safer bet given the ensemble member spread.

6z GEFS