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Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

AMZ8990

By AMZ8990,
in Tennessee Valley

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Kasper
Kasper

I haven’t seen things this Active since my X-Wife slept with her co-workers! Keep ‘em coming! 

Holston_River_Rambler
Holston_River_Rambler

To follow up on what John said, the 0z GFS was what I call the space invaders pattern. The northern stream and the STJ keep shooting energy at each other like the old video game:  

Wurbus
Wurbus

Best I could do while working. Euro rolling

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:
We really need a "wow" button.  

Yeah it is absurdly warm and muggy outside for 11AM in the Tricities. Sun is out as well.

Very windy as well!!!!  

Not for Windspeed but an addendum to my post above....Just so as not to clutter the entire thread, I also wanted to add(fixed the post above) that Jan 1 of 1984 began with a high of 71 at TRI which was 26.5 above normal.  Three days later TRI received a trace of snow on both the 4th and 5th.  Again, not implying at all that we get a repeat of '84-85 extreme temps.  However, the pattern is similar enough that it is has been repeatedly in the CPC analog lists due to the Aleutian high.  Crazy that we have seen a smilier post season warm spell at the same time.  The return to cooler temps will also be almost the same.  Talking pattern similarities (not temp comparison) which is why I put that post in the historical thread.  It is exactly 71 at the airport right now.  LOL.  Record high of 1974(set in 1952) is in jeopardy.

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Daniel Boone

Daniel Boone

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Some batch of bugs just hatched and is flying around up here. I guess its time to head to Clinch to trout fish. Low 70s even on the plateau. Do we think someone in the foothills sees 80 today? Sevierville is up from even the earlier post:

pCpD8Ax.png

That is absolutely amazing ! 69.4 here but, more clouds than sun so far today. 

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Long range post....will update this post when the EPS is through.

So looks to me like this pattern holds to around the 20th, give our take 2-3 days.  The trough is retrograding into the Aleutians during week 4(late in week three if you look at the GEPS).  The GFS extended last night had a similar look.  The GFS extended holds cold into week 4.  Looks about right to me at this moment.  Those AN heights would flip the pattern back west later in January.  However, we are about to test a theory that @Daniel Booneand I were discussing yesterday.  With no NAO block which essentially blocks the eastward push of cold, the cold may be free to push eastward despite the 500 configuration.  It may undercut it through the end of the month before finally giving way to cold in the Mountain West to end the season.  If you look at the surface temps on the GEFS extended, that is exactly what it does.   The GEFS is slower with that and looks more like an Alaskan block with a large trough over NA.  Honestly, by the time we get to Jan 20th, we all may want some warmer weather.  So there is that.  

To me, It looks an awful lot like the MJO rotates through 8-1-2 and then back into the warmer phases.  Whether it can get back around for one last shot of cold in Feb remains to be seen.  Huge grains of salt as that is sandbox mode speculation right there.  

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Mr. Kevin

Mr. Kevin

Posted
Posted

Happy new year everyone! Definitely looking colder for a few weeks. This question may be for jax or holston. Is there any chance the cfsv2 will verify with mjo making it to 8-2? Also, what would need to happen to have this colder pattern extended past mid month? Thanks in advance 

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

TRI's all time high is 79 which was set in 1950.  Looks like we may miss that by a couple of degrees, but set the daily record of 77.  But it is going to make the 48 hour temp change something to behold.  Also, the distance between the max temp for the month and the min temp for the month may be one of the more impressive that we will see.  

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, when will you give update on the ensembles 12z?

Think I posted one about four hours ago.  I just hadn't updated for the EPS which looks good.  So, will add a few thoughts.  We will be a risk sometime around the 20th(if models are taken verbatim today) of a flip back to the western trough and Aleutian hp.  Very unsure about that or any solution at all after the 20th.  Would be very rare for modeling to hold such a steep trough in place for more than a couple of weeks.  Then again the West had a great trough for about three weeks.  If at some point we see a severe cold shot(single digits for lows and highs in the lower 20s), wouldn't surprise me to see it flip right after that.  Seems to be the pattern for winters in this area.  Great debate which is not settled regarding if the MJO takes the tour through 8-1-2.  It has already defied all odds and made it into day2 of phase 8, hence the change to cold tomorrow night.  Going to have some warm air masses intermingled between these cold fronts....a pattern with wild swings.  

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Mr. Kevin

Mr. Kevin

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Think I posted one about four hours ago.  I just hadn't updated for the EPS which looks good.  So, will add a few thoughts.  We will be a risk sometime around the 20th(if models are taken verbatim today) of a flip back to the western trough and Aleutian hp.  Very unsure about that or any solution at all after the 20th.  Would be very rare for modeling to hold such a steep trough in place for more than a couple of weeks.  Then again the West had a great trough for about three weeks.  If at some point we see a severe cold shot(single digits for lows and highs in the lower 20s), wouldn't surprise me to see it flip right after that.  Seems to be the pattern for winters in this area.  Great debate which is not settled regarding if the MJO takes the tour through 8-1-2.  It has already defied all odds and made it into day2 of phase 8, hence the change to cold tomorrow night.  Going to have some warm air masses intermingled between these cold fronts....a pattern with wild swings.  

The cfsv2 has it going into 8-2 fwiw. At least today's update did.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

The cfsv2 has it going into 8-2 fwiw. At least today's update did.

It did for sure.  It has been too quick all winter, but has generally been right about the sequence of phases.  It just doesn't account for the loops and jagged moves.  The BOMM looked decent today.  I will see if I can get a photo of that.  The big mistake with models in the MJO, they don't seem to be able to get the "speed" of the MJO correct.  

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

One addendum about the CFS and the MJO, the CFS being too quick into those good MJO phases makes it tough to use as a model.  I guess one could try to account for its bias, and work from there - kind of what I do but that model will leave one with egg on their face more times than not. Not sure which model has handled the MJO well though.  The CFS being so quick has given it a big time cold bias.  It did catch this cold snap though...only because it is cold all of the time.  LOL!

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Holston_River_Rambler

Holston_River_Rambler

Posted
Posted

@Mr. Kevin Sorry I saw that you asked about the MJO earlier, but I've hyperventilating about the current system. 

This is probably the best I've seen convection look in the central Pac in a while:

hTpJtWu.png

 

It is south of the equator, so not sure exactly how that squares with the MJO. 

Ventrice's VP plots to have an interesting evolution:

Vj6RphH.png

 

Roundy's analogue page does show what seems to me like a sensible progression through the 3rd week of January:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76111db71e624fb2b7c094

 

SOI also dropped to 3.82 today. 

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Mr. Kevin

Mr. Kevin

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

@Mr. Kevin Sorry I saw that you asked about the MJO earlier, but I've hyperventilating about the current system. 

This is probably the best I've seen convection look in the central Pac in a while:

hTpJtWu.png

 

It is south of the equator, so not sure exactly how that squares with the MJO. 

Ventrice's VP plots to have an interesting evolution:

Vj6RphH.png

 

Roundy's analogue page does show what seems to me like a sensible progression through the 3rd week of January:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76111db71e624fb2b7c094

 

SOI also dropped to 3.82 today. 

I'm very dumb when I look at those maps lol with the vp200 plots. Briefly explain what it means and how I can interpret them

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