Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

I’m game 

I went ahead and rolled the dice. 

[Carvers Gap]

Great looking wave along an strong cold front around 150 on the 0z GFS.  That is a feature that easily could be found along that front.  Other than that, too tired to comment after that abomination of a forward progress call.  See you all tomorrow.  Go Vols!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It seems like the GFS has been trying maybe one out of every 2 or 3 runs, to try to bury some energy in the gulf. 

Here are 9 runs centered on 12z Thursday, January 13:

I count 2/3 of those runs showing either a vort of some form in the Gulf or diving towards it. 

The Euro Control overnight had something similar. I wish I had access to its relative vorticity maps for a more similar comparison, but the best I have is the 500mb wind:

 

As far as I can tell, this is the first time the Control has shown something like this. All of it is a way, way out there in time, but anything remotely resembling energy diving towards the Gulf is always something I'm interested in. 

Overnight extended range ensemble gifs:

(nice ending look IMO on the GEFS above)

 

 

Most RMM plots look fairly similar now. I'll use the Euro since IMO it has been the most consistent with the MJO mess:

 

Just looking at the tropical convection in the western Pac, I don't see much to get too excited about, but I guess we'll see:

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

During winter, snow often follows closely behind storms here in NE TN.  Always amazed when it occurs.

As for the LR, not much has changed.  Looks like seasonal to BN through the first half of January.   So without beating a dead horse, major pattern shift/relaxation still on track for Jan 3.  After that, we will see 2-4 cold shots with warm interludes.  Spacing and timing will determine our fate regarding winter wx.  After mid-January, we will have to see.  Kind of two lines of thinking there...the Pacific is favorable and a trough stays in the East or the trough reverts back West.  As it is, plenty of cold and snow opportunities from the Rockies to the Apps for the next few weeks(north of I-40).  The NWS map today alone should show that winter is far from over.

Strong Nina climatology in play right now with the cold arriving during the first half of winter.  Would not be surprised to see us break for spring early if Nina persists, though I do think we see one last period of cold/snow before winter finally exits in Feb.  Sounds like Cosgrove, but looks likely nonetheless.  Now, if Nino takes over with a quick flip...all bets are off on that.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like the 12z GFS wants to go with a couple of light wintery events next week.  We will see.  For whatever reason, I like the look of the Jan 7 system.

[Carvers Gap]

VAST DIFFERENCES in the MJO this morning.  Canadian is good and goes COD which will work as we are in the coldest time of the year.  GEFS goes into 8, then 7, and then back to 8.  CEFS goes into 8-1.  The EPS goes into 8, COD and sort of back to 7.  The corrected EPS moves into 6 after mid-month which reflects the look we see on the EPS.  My money is on what the GEPS and GEFS are doing at 12z.  Very strong trough in the east which slowly retrogrades into the center of the country.  The GOA high slowly pushes towards the Aleutians.  Does it set an Alaskan block or reset the Aleutian high?  Either is plausible. Retrograding patterns are interesting to watch and tough to predict!!!  Looks like a cold and wintry pattern through mid-month with warm mixed in for good measure.  

I will add that if the MJO gets into 8, the Euro fought it every step of the way.  OTH, the EURO has a more realistic trajectory of the current MJO plot.  So, it kind of got it right by slow walking the MJO, but at times incorrectly reversed it.  It also has the most accurate looking MJO plot trajectory right now which looks correct.  Does it loop back to 6?  It might if the heights in the GOA retrograde there after mid-month.  I would suggest the GEPS and GEFS combo right now look the most realistic in their pattern progression and with the retrograding pattern.   I tend to believe this gets into colder phases of the MJO, but that is far from settled.

[Carvers Gap]

These will change as they are updated.  These are not photos but linked to the CPC.  The echo what we have been tracking on this sub-forum for a couple of weeks.  This is the window.

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Note in the threats assessment the risk for hazardous cold in west forum areas is now within the slight risk "cone."

 

[Bigbald]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks like the 12z GFS wants to go with a couple of light wintery events next week.  We will see.  For whatever reason, I like the look of the Jan 7 system.

Really hard not to be excited about the next 2 weeks +, the warms up look more/less seasonal to me, at least on the 12z Cmc and 12z gfs, although the latter has a couple warmer days in the Jan 12ish range before meeting another really cold front. 

 

I've lucked into booking a cabin in Wolf Ridge with the right cabin weather, located just under Big Bald next weekend.  It looks like I might get some snow showers and definite cold. 

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

Really hard not to be excited about the next 2 weeks +, the warms up look more/less seasonal to me, at least on the 12z Cmc and 12z gfs, although the latter has a couple warmer days in the Jan 12ish range before meeting another really cold front. 

 

I've lucked into booking a cabin in Wolf Ridge with the right cabin weather, located just under Big Bald next weekend.  It looks like I might get some snow showers and definite cold. 

I mean we could always strike out.  But getting some BN temps into the region during January along with normal precip.....we take.  

Sounds like a great time.  Is Big Bald right there near Sam's Gap - sort of north of it on the AT?

[Bigbald]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I mean we could always strike out.  But getting some BN temps into the region during January along with normal precip.....we take.  

Sounds like a great time.  Is Big Bald right there near Sam's Gap - sort of north of it on the AT?

Pretty much, you can get there via the AT at Sam's Gap, about a 7 or 8 mile one way trip.  Or you can go in from the other side at Spivey Gap...both are pack a lunch type hikes/runs with some hefty gain.  Or one can stay at Wolf Ridge and basically walk right up to it after maybe a half mile.  All that home development in the shadow of BB is unfortunate but its here to stay at this point.

[AMZ8990]

43 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Note in the threats assessment the risk for hazardous cold in west forum areas is now within the slight risk "cone."

 

 Will have to keep an eye on that timeframe for sure.  I’ve been lucky at work and haven’t had to have my guys put covers on the greens yet this year. It’s looking like we may have to at some point in January though for sure.    The Ultra Dwarf Championship Bermuda grass greens do not like temperatures below 32 degrees for extended periods so it’s a big predicament for folks in the turf/golf industry

[AMZ8990]

21 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Thanks! Yeah, it's been a rough stretch of late between getting flooded out of house/home in October (should be back and at it next month) in tandem with our smallest Fry coming early (25 weeks) back in August. While we're no longer living at the NICU, I've needed to return to some semblance of sanity/normality. Model watching, storm tracking, forum participating with a cold pattern looming...trust me when I say this is just what the doctor ordered heading into 2022.

 I’m sorry to hear about all that man, that is very unfortunate.  You and yours are in my prayers.  Im Glad the winter weather threats are giving you some much needed peace of mind.  Hope your little one continues to grow and get stronger by the day.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS has now joined the GEFS and GEPS with a huge EPO ridge in the LR.  The actual 12z Euro operational was really cold.  The EPS backed it up.  Not sure how long modeling can hold this look, but the massive ridge out west is complemented by the massive trough in the East in the mid and long range.  One would think that would break down fairly quickly.  That said, if that trough can grab part of the PV, it can travel well south with the mechanics of that set-up.

[CG2]

Roughly 5-6" snow mean over NE TN / SW VA on both the GEPS and GEFS

[Carvers Gap]

Here are those maps....

 

[AMZ8990]

Seems like a good consensus among models right now for us to get possibly our coldest air of the year coming into play around the 7th/8th of January.  Single digit lows across the state on the CMC for Saturday the 8th.  Definitely a strong signal for cold showing up 

[Mr. Kevin]

What does the gfs and euro have for temps?

[Carvers Gap]

LONG POST....

Here are the last CFSv2 Monthly forecasts for January.  

 

For kicks and giggles, here is a composite of two favorite cold outbreaks: Januarys '96(moderate Nina), '15(weak El Nino which had just flipped).  I did not include '84 as it is a different setup and is so extreme, though it did have a monster warm December.  '84 is part of CPC's analog package again today.  Here are also the 5 day maps of all three global ensembles at lunch.  THIS IS NOT A FORECAST.  This is sandbox mode and just exploring the anatomy of a cold pattern and looking to see if the modeled LR patterns have some of these characteristics.  @John1122 will like this.  The NAO is positive in that composite map. There is a high in the GOA and/or in the Bering Sea.  There is a little bit of an western Atlantic ridge - centered west.  Kind of an interesting composite, but we are seeing elements of both Nina and Nino in modeling.  

 

These are 31d composites being compared to 5d composites.  I would be surprised if the entire month was like January 15' and 96'.  Just seems like we could see the the first half of the month look or evolve to  something similar.  Again, as stated earlier (several times), not sure where the pattern goes during the second half of the month.  Just looking for a window.

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Jan 7 timeframe still looks like a good window as well.   The TN subforum snow map is going to be pretty stout after the happy hour run of the GFS.  Two storms so far.

[brianc33710]

I got caught off guard when I turned on the TWC & they had Thu hi 55, Thu lo 19, Fri hi 37 & Fri lo 24. BMX has 25 Thu nite & 43 Fri. I like that better, even though I'd be happy with 70s all winter long. I miss Tampa Bay.

[Carvers Gap]

0z GFS has several winter chances and lots of cold. 0z CMC looks similar.   Happy New Year to the best weather forum on the planet!!!

[BuCoVaWx]

Happy new year guys!!! Thank you all so much for the insight and information, it's very interesting. Hopefully we can reel in some good cold and a few snow chances in 2022.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Happy New year to all too! 

6z GFS gives us a present. It's not been prefect by any means, but I feel like the GFS has been a little steadier with the medium range with out current system and as other have mentioned it has had this one its radar for a while too, so made it's on to something:

 

 

Euro has the system too, but further north:

 

[jaxjagman]

Record high for Nashville is 77,sitting at 73 right now,i think that might get broken possibly

[Carvers Gap]

Transition is well underway.  Warm today and tomorrow until the cold front passes through.  

Ensembles this morning still look cold.  Whether that big ridge out west and AN heights in eastern PAC hold in those same favorable spots(that they are now), anyone’s guess after the 20th.  The pattern is retrograding but appears to have slowed and is holding BN heights over Greenland with cyclonic flow around it.  That flow in turn sends very cold air into the middle and eastern half of the United States - centered more east.  The MJO is now in phase 8 which (for a brief moment) means US modeling was correct.  Does it stay there or do one more loop before progressing?  No idea.  Seems to be crawling in a progressive manner (with loops for good measure).  

After ~ Jan 20, one would think the retrograding pattern would put the high back in the Aleutians and the trough reposition out West.  That is not a slam dunk, but it a plausible solution.  If the MJO continues to slowly meander, it could conceivably meander all of the way to 2 OR loop into warm phases - there is that much spread.  

In the mean time, looks like we have several potential cold shots possible with warmth building as the cold exits....wash, rinse, repeat.  Time to enjoy those cold fronts as they are conveniently showing-up at the best time of the year from a climatology standpoint.  Holston has it covered this AM... 

 

[Carvers Gap]

One caveat.....the GFS, which sometimes finds a kernel of corn, has an ideal look at 500.  The operational at both 0z and 12z builds heights in the western Atlantic which connect to the PAC ridge.  That in turn traps very cold air and forces it southward. You know my feelings about sharing a foxhole with that model, but it has shown it twice now in the LR.  That looks a lot like some great cold patterns.  I was going to put ‘85-‘85 in that big post yesterday.  It just didn’t fit what I was seeing in LR modeling.  The GFS is rightly or wrongly flirting with that look.  Even with that look, highly unlikely that we see those types of historical temps.  Just commenting on the delivery system and/or mechanism which allowed for that cold pattern to occur.  It would be worth noting that Dec ‘84 was incredibly warm - John has noted that several times.  Dec ‘84 was in The analog package from the CPC yesterday. 

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like the next system to keep an eye on is Jan 7.  Long way off...could cut or could slide past.  Have to think frozen is plausible for someone in the forum area.  

[MattPetrulli]

This is absolutely wild

[Carvers Gap]

I dropped some maps in the historical thread about 84-85.  I feel like I have to note this every time I mention a historically wild pattern...NOBODY IS SAYING THAT WILL REPEAT.  But extreme weather is what TN is known for.  It is partly why TVA was formed - to control flooding (and also to bring cheap electricity).  This forum area has long history(well before the internet and back to the first settlers) of having extreme weather swings, often during the same season.  Temps and precip made it tough for both indigenous people and the first settlers.  It was difficult to farm bottomland due to the unpredictability of flooding of our many rivers.  I have no doubt that the extreme weather swings of this region will continue.  1984-85 as well as 1993 were generational patterns.  Even for this regions, those extremes were rare extremes.  However, we can learn what mechanisms produce extremes in our region.  As I type this I can see @MattPetrulli's post hit the newsfeed. Wow!  Not unexpected but still amazing!!!   It will be interesting to see the 24 hour temp swings from Sunday to Monday.   I can remember in December of 1984 wondering if winter would ever show up.  I think we hit 70+ at TRI on the first day of January that season(yep...71 on Jan 1, nearly 27 degrees above normal that year).   Kind of crazy that we are tracking a potential snowstorm while the temps outside are more like June.  

What will be crazy is that January might go AN just from today's and tomorrow's temp anomalies alone, regardless of the next 2-3 weeks of departures!  What happens during the rest of the month will be interesting.  Wild swings will continue.  

Anyway, feel free to comment and check out the 84-85 post in the historical thread.