Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[brianc33710]

I actually installed the Tropical Tidbits app on my phone last spring. I thought I'd have the ability to check out the models on my end but it only shows an invest off of Australia's northeast coast. 

[Nash_LSU]

22 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

I'll just go ahead and ask. When you (or anyone) says, 'NAMing', are you referencing model bias with respective to mid-layer thermals/overdone trough amplification? Just want to make sure I follow.

NAM likes to show us getting buried in snow in the 60-84 hour range. Beautiful clown maps that are good for daydreams of winter wonderlands, but they rarely materialize.

[*Flash*]

18 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Imo, it has the tendency to overhype stuff, or it did in the past alot, only to come back to reality as we got closer. Its actually not as bad as years ago, but the 84hr frames definitely need to be taken with a grain of salt. I know that can be with all models, but the nam was notorious with it

Got it. I recall the over-exaggeration of QPF but the timing aspect makes sense. 

[Carvers Gap]

Yeah, the NAM is like the old DGEX.  Just gets way too amped outside of 48 hours at times.  

The 12z RGEM and NAM looked fairly putrid.

The 12z GFS was fairly close to something good on the 3rd.  It actually turned the corner.  That is likely 6-10"(or more) for the mountains if that track were to verify.  CMC was more backend snow showers and flurries.

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS is truly a good winter run.  Cold, chances for snow, and a good overall mean trough in the East.  Nice little storm after 300 which shows what can happen if the cold front taps the GOM.  Roughly three trackable features.  That is a wintry pattern.

[Carvers Gap]

I think Sullivan Co is up to 10-12" of total snow for that run.  Biggest run of the season from the Plateau eastward.

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS....Verbatim, that is a very active winter pattern and is a stellar run.  I am currently just looking for opportunities vs narrowing in on details.  Remember, I just look for windows where it can snow.  We have had exactly zero up to this point this winter.  By my count there are four opportunities for wintery weather on that run alone.  Now, obviously the details will change, but my takeaway from that run is we are going to be on along the battle lines between cold and warm.  If you want to see a big snow(or no snow if you are south of the demarcation line), that is the pattern.  

Oddly, and I have toyed with this for several weeks.  I have often wondered if the NAO was weaker if the western trough would have been allowed eastward.  That run was a good test of that theory.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Can’t post any gifs right now since I’m in Knoxville on my phone but Euro 12z looks pretty unchanged from 6z wrt the Sunday wave
 

 

@Flash yeah I was just referring to the Nam dumping snow at range. 

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro looks similar for sure. Snow showers and light snow possible for E TN.

Both the 12z GEFS and GEPS now show a Pacific driven pattern.  Prior the GEPS didn't have the deep trough that the GEFS does after 300.  Does now.  Good trends.  Cold pattern if true.  

Vols are on at 3:00PM.  GBO.

[CG2]

Again, this is Carvers Gap.  Just using this account since it has more room for attachments.  Looks like cold is locked in for Jan 3-4.  Here is the 10day Jan5-15th temp anomaly maps from both the GEFS and GESP.  There is even a warm-up embedded in that graphic.  BN temps during our coldest weeks of the year.  Literally cannot ask for a better temp profile during winter if it verifies.  

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z GFS....Verbatim, that is a very active winter pattern and is a stellar run.  I am currently just looking for opportunities vs narrowing in on details.  Remember, I just look for windows where it can snow.  We have had exactly zero up to this point this winter.  By my count there are four opportunities for wintery weather on that run alone.  Now, obviously the details will change, but my takeaway from that run is we are going to be on along the battle lines between cold and warm.  If you want to see a big snow(or no snow if you are south of the demarcation line), that is the pattern.  

Oddly, and I have toyed with this for several weeks.  I have often wondered if the NAO was weaker if the western trough would have been allowed eastward.  That run was a good test of that theory.  

I have pondered that irt the NAO too. I believe that is very well possible as the trough deep n2 the SW pumped the gom/se Ridge to the point it nearly connected. Had at least a semblance of a SW HP been there, the strong -NAO would of worked it's magic, I believe.

[CG2]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

I have pondered that irt the NAO too. I believe that is very well possible as the trough deep n2 the SW pumped the gom/se Ridge to the point it nearly connected. Had at least a semblance of a SW HP been there, the strong -NAO would of worked it's magic, I believe.

Agree.  The strong NAO seemed to cause a buckle in that block that just didn't allow the cold to spread eastward.  If either block had been weaker, I believe we would have seen more cold.  As is, if the 12z GEFS is even close to being right, we are about to test that theory.  Not sure I have seen a trough dig from the Arctic/Greenland to Cuba.  LOL.  That is an extreme solution.  Probably means it won't verify, but maybe for suppression purposes, we want some modification there!  LOL.  Fingers crossed for split flow or we are going to be dependent on systems arriving from the Arctic for moisture if the run is taken verbatim.  I don't want to see a repeat of 17-18 - cold and dry.  With the GOM so warm, have to think some fireworks are sparked.  

I would not be surprised to see the NAO again later in the season when it is more correlated to cold.  As is, the EPO and east Pac AN heights are more traditionally(speaking of La Nina climatology) located for cold than they were in December.  Hope that works out.  At this point, looks like a pattern change of at least two weeks....TBD after that.  

And as always....things can and will change.  Just have to roll with it.

[Carvers Gap]

12z EPS is slightly slower than that great looking GEFS run, but gets there a couple of days later in the LR.  Only difference is the EPS retrogrades the trough westward vs just building the PNA ridge in place like the GEFS does.  Whether that ridge stays in place or is transient, just can't tell as we can't see past that time frame.  For now a big PNA/EPO ridge is the trend in the LR.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

NAM coming in rather amped:

 

 

Could just be the NAM being the NAM, but Masiello had a good argument on twitter late last night for the possibility of a more amped solution:

 

[AMZ8990]

6 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Got it. I recall the over-exaggeration of QPF but the timing aspect makes sense. 

Glad to see you posting, Flash!  Hope you and the family are doing well.

[Mr. Kevin]

Carver, just look at the 12zeps teleconnections and if the pna is around neutral or slightly positive or negative, that would imply the trough being a little further east compared to where it has been for a month now at least. 

[*Flash*]

9 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Glad to see you posting, Flash!  Hope you and the family are doing well.

Thanks! Yeah, it's been a rough stretch of late between getting flooded out of house/home in October (should be back and at it next month) in tandem with our smallest Fry coming early (25 weeks) back in August. While we're no longer living at the NICU, I've needed to return to some semblance of sanity/normality. Model watching, storm tracking, forum participating with a cold pattern looming...trust me when I say this is just what the doctor ordered heading into 2022.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS coming in with a full fledged snowstorm.

[John1122]

RGEM is trying. Looks pretty good for the Mid-State down into Miss and N Alabama. 

[*Flash*]

5 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Thanks! Yeah, it's been a rough stretch of late between getting flooded out of house/home in October (should be back and at it next month) in tandem with our smallest Fry coming early (25 weeks) back in August. While we're no longer living at the NICU, I've needed to return to some semblance of sanity/normality. Model watching, storm tracking, forum participating with a cold pattern looming...trust me when I say this is just what the doctor ordered heading into 2022.

I should add it almost got a lot worse on 12/11/21. See the Wolfe Road/White Bluff Road intersection? That's where I live. You'll note the Kingston Springs EF-2 started just a few tenths of a mile north of our home. This spawned from the same cell that produced the Dickson/Burns EF-1 (see green track below). We essentially thread the needle as the tornado lifted at literally the perfect mile.  That freight train sound is something else!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

What do y'all think? Thread? It's halftime so we need something to do. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Thanks! Yeah, it's been a rough stretch of late between getting flooded out of house/home in October (should be back and at it next month) in tandem with our smallest Fry coming early (25 weeks) back in August. While we're no longer living at the NICU, I've needed to return to some semblance of sanity/normality. Model watching, storm tracking, forum participating with a cold pattern looming...trust me when I say this is just what the doctor ordered heading into 2022.

Wow, man.  Glad you all are out of the NICU.  Amazing what the NICU can do.  Also, had no idea you all got flooded out.  Glad to see you posting, man.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

What do y'all think? Thread? It's halftime so we need something to do. 

Need a PNA/EPO ridge and some more Tillman/Hooker.  

[John1122]

This would be the all time bad snow hole. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

This would be the all time bad snow hole. 

 

Near my house, so we know this solution is legit - KNOW IT!  LOL.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

This would be the all time bad snow hole. 

 

That represents the ENE wind from a 992 cyclone in the NC piedmont blowing the EB @Carvers Gap slightly off kilter. 

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

That represents the ENE wind from a 992 cyclone in the NC piedmont blowing the EB @Carvers Gap slightly off kilter. 

Process upset.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Process upset.

That one went over my head, lol. Good opening run for the second half, let's hope that portends well for the Hooker-Tillman connection. 

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

That one went over my head, lol. Good opening run for the second half, let's hope that portends well for the Hooker-Tillman connection. 

When the coal gas plant had a "problem" that was the term that was coined.  That 18z GFS was a process upset for someone to my west.  Good opening drive for sure.  GFS with a clipper type system a few days later on the 7th.  Been a while since we have seen one of those.

[AMZ8990]

43 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

What do y'all think? Thread? It's halftime so we need something to do. 

I’m game