Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[AMZ8990]

 January discussion for all things winter in the Tennessee Valley Sub-forum.  When we have a likely event 2-3 days out we can create an individual thread for said storm.  It helps for record keeping purposes as a lot us like to look back on old threads to learn, etc.  Merry Christmas to all as well, I hope everyone has a great holiday.  

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS coming in is a bit cooler around December 30th.  We will see how that affects the rest of the run.  Might be interesting.

[John1122]

The EPS looks to get the Aleutian Low going. Very hopeful that comes to pass, as it normally propagates a neutral or +PNA. Cross polar flow showing up too. No idea if we can pull off a frozen event but if all that comes to pass I'll be surprised if we don't. 

We have only had a favorable pattern in January a handful of times in the 2000s. All but one worked out really well. The one that didn't was just bone chilling cold with one minor snow event imby. Ice was 6 inches thick on the creeks near here. That was Dec 2017 into January 2018 when the storm track was suppressed and the deep south cashed in multiple times. 

[Carvers Gap]

MJO for the gfs looked off this AM.  May be right and it may not.  We are going to see some runs today which are likely vastly different between model suites.  I take some comfort in that the GFS continually busted on going into 8.  LOL.  So it’s jog back towards 6 is an outlier among models at this time.  CMC at 12z looks good.  Gfs will get there but later in the run.  

[Carvers Gap]

The difference in the 12z CMC and GFS on the 3rd is stark - stark.  The CMC is single digits shortly after and the GFS seems to be struggling with feedback over the eastern PAC.  It could be right, but it doesn’t have support to this point.  Again, its MJO looks nothing like the others.  The CMC has been super consistent.  We will se what the Euro does at 12z.

[AMZ8990]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

MJO for the gfs looked off this AM.  May be right and it may not.  We are going to see some runs today which are likely vastly different between model suites.  I take some comfort in that the GFS continually busted on going into 8.  LOL.  So it’s jog back towards 6 is an outlier among models at this time.  CMC at 12z looks good.  Gfs will get there but later in the run.  

Yeah the GFS at 12z wants to start the month of January At AN temps.  Then around the 3rd to 4th the warmth starts to push out and cold air takes its place.  Runs not finished yet, will see what happens between 270-360.  Biggest takeaway I can see is that models seem to agree we will have some cold air to work with in January.  

[AMZ8990]

On a side note- The fog this morning is intense on the west side of the state today.  Visibility will definitely be an issue for pilots heading out of Memphis today 

[John1122]

Hoping for the Euro solution which takes the MJO low into 7, then COD 8. Those two areas were -4 and -6 respectively for Atlanta per GaWx. So likely as cold or moreso here.  

[tnweathernut]

12z CMC today almost looks like the Christmas setup last year, at least at first glance anyway.

[Carvers Gap]

Most modeling has been very solid with the Jan 3rd cold front - Jan 1-2 have been warm(just not record warm).   There is a cool front that comes through on some modeling around NYE or NYD.  Looks to me like the GFS still had a good run and a pattern flip.  Just giving it a closer look, looks like both the CMC and GFS get to a cold pattern with the same mechanics which is to use a piece of energy to rotate cold in behind it.  The GFS is jumping on the second piece of the split trough.  CMC deepened the eastern trough with the first piece.  So, not sure that was an MJO issue as much as it was with model jumped on which piece of energy to slam the cold home.  For now, my money is on the CMC.

[Carvers Gap]

12z CMC and GEFS look similar to previous runs, including the cold shot on the 3rd.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said:

On a side note- The fog this morning is intense on the west side of the state today.  Visibility will definitely be an issue for pilots heading out of Memphis today 

Same here. Looked like a foggy August morning.

[Carvers Gap]

Euro looks more like the CMC though not to that extreme for the Jan 3 front.  Looks like a wave rides the front w/ some winter potential north of I40.

[jaxjagman]

Fixing to start a new Severe thread but was thinking of letting the ENSO  thread slip slide away since there is already a thread on the main page,we can post ENSO in the seasonals,see what yall think?

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, jaxjagman said:

Fixing to start a new Severe thread but was thinking of letting the ENSO  thread slip slide away since there is already a thread on the main page,we can post ENSO in the seasonals,see what yall think?

I like your ENSO thread, especially during the off-season.  I think you should keep it.   Both threads(severe/ENSO) are kind of unique to our subforum.  Your call, but just my two cents.

[Carvers Gap]

12z EPS looks good.  Not sure what is going on with the GFS operational...but all three ensembles show a nice period of cold weather for early January.  Whew - the CFSv2 is really cold.  Probably is not right for a number of reasons(little to quick with the MJO and it is always cold anyway), but crazy in terms of eastern cold.  The ensembles look like a scaled back version both in intensity and duration.

[jaxjagman]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

I like your ENSO thread, especially during the off-season.  I think you should keep it.   Both threads(severe/ENSO) are kind of unique to our subforum.  Your call, but just my two cents.

Ok,we will keep it then,might wotk out better that way or we'd have to start a thread for the next season at the start of one,if that makes since

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS is a pretty much a complete reversal of the current pattern at almost all latitudes of NA, just flip the reds and blues at 500.  Oh the irony if we switch to a +PNA pattern.   Most of those flips are good...but not all.

[Mr. Kevin]

I will say this. When the cfsv2 does the end of month forecast for following month, its usually pretty accurate. It said that December would be really warm, which it was. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS has the period of Jan 3-10 BN for temps, and that is with a warm-up embedded.  Both the GEPS and GEFS reflect a similar depiction.   Precip during that timeframe looks at or above normal if smoothed.  Could be a warm-up and rain deal, could be over-running, could be a slider....lots on the table.  Looks like we have a cold shot around the 3rd, cold relaxes, and another (maybe more significant) shot arrives around the 7th.  The EPS tries to lift the BN heights at 500 northward, but the cold(mslp maps reference) is so extensive it almost has to burn itself out.  

[jaxjagman]

SOI is still rather strong today.This should strenghten the Walker Circulation,generally this puts HP in the Eastern Pac in time

 

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
26 Dec 2021	1012.82	1000.10	46.71	11.43	10.90
25 Dec 2021	1015.80	1003.15	46.34	10.90	10.65
24 Dec 2021	1014.85	1005.50	29.22	10.18	10.14
23 Dec 2021	1011.50	1006.15	8.46	9.60	9.63
22 Dec 2021	1009.09	1007.85	-12.87	9.60	9.34
21 Dec 2021	1009.99	1011.50	-27.14	10.36	9.37
20 Dec 2021	1011.33	1009.50	-9.81	11.50	9.67

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

SOI is still rather strong today.This should be strenghten the Walker Circulation,generally this puts HP in the Eastern Pac in time

 

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
26 Dec 2021	1012.82	1000.10	46.71	11.43	10.90
25 Dec 2021	1015.80	1003.15	46.34	10.90	10.65
24 Dec 2021	1014.85	1005.50	29.22	10.18	10.14
23 Dec 2021	1011.50	1006.15	8.46	9.60	9.63
22 Dec 2021	1009.09	1007.85	-12.87	9.60	9.34
21 Dec 2021	1009.99	1011.50	-27.14	10.36	9.37
20 Dec 2021	1011.33	1009.50	-9.81	11.50	9.67

We really need a "wow" like button for this site.  That is crazy.  Are we talking the GOA or Aleutians when talking eastern Pac?  I would think a more traditional placement would be likely.  EPS was playing with that late in its run...either that or zonal with some northwest flow.

[Carvers Gap]

After the weather we are having right now, if we go BN for part of early January that is gonna hurt!  Just sayin.........

[Met1985]

25 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

After the weather we are having right now, if we go BN for part of early January that is gonna hurt!  Just sayin.........

No kidding! 71 in Asheville yesterday shattering the old record and 77 so far today in Charlotte....

[jaxjagman]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

We really need a "wow" like button for this site.  That is crazy.  Are we talking the GOA or Aleutians when talking eastern Pac?  I would think a more traditional placement would be likely.  EPS was playing with that late in its run...either that or zonal with some northwest flow.

lEastern Pac,should see NINA peak soon as the warmer SST'S build out west with upwelling in the east cools

[Carvers Gap]

12 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

No kidding! 71 in Asheville yesterday shattering the old record and 77 so far today in Charlotte....

LOL.  Check out these 24 hour temperature changes from Jan 2 to 3.  First is the CMC and the next is the Euro.  The CMC is at 6z on the 3rd and Euro is at 12z on the 3rd. GFS is a mere 25-30 degree temp change.   

[Met1985]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  Check out these 24 hour temperature changes from Jan 2 to 3.  First is the CMC and the next is the Euro.  The CMC is at 6z on the 3rd and Euro is at 12z on the 3rd. GFS is a mere 25-30 degree temp change.   

Yeah that would be a shock to the system.

[Carvers Gap]

11 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

lEastern Pac,should see NINA peak soon as the warmer SST'S build out west with upwelling in the east cools

Jax, if the SST build in the western Pacific, that would likely allow more convection to occur in the MJO regions 8-1-2, right?  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Since we're throwing some obs. in here today, I had a little visitor for yard work this afternoon:

 

Kind of eerie with the fog this AM:

 

[Carvers Gap]

@Holston_River_Rambler...always great photos

Not sure I have ever seen something like this before.  This is the 12z CFSv2 control.  These are -20F departures for western portions of the forum area......for a 30 day time frame.  LOL.  The mean is 5-10 BN which is just insane in an of itself.  This is why I don't share a foxhole with this model...but, man.