OBS-NOWCAST for Periods of mostly light snow 10PM today- 10AM Friday 12/24/21- first measurable NYC with 1-3" Catskills to CT

[wdrag]

Choose your model and since since the NAM through the 06z/23 cycle was dry in NYC, there is no guarantee this thread will be correct for NYC.  I'm putting my money on the 06z/23 EC, HRRR, RGEM and allowing for a chance of 0.2" measurable snowfall in NYC early Friday morning. Temps I think will be down to 32F in NYC in a period of snow in the 2-4AM time frame, and then a question if it sticks, will it still be on the snow board at 7AM-12z/24 OBS time.  

So, if the HRRR/RGEM/EC/GFS don't shift the southern edge north during today's cycles, I am expecting a dusting up to an inch I78 region northward inclusive of northern LI and NYC, while the jackpot, 1-3" if you will, should lie further north from the Catskills through CT.

Blame a warm frontal wave (passage of an area of pressure falls on the warm front to our south), ahead of the stronger low pressure heading for our area on Christmas.  

Ensembles are not enthusiastic for an inch of snow except well north of I84, so we need to keep than in mind as well. 

 

Adjusted the title at 609PM to add OBS and NOWCAST

[Allsnow]

Euro with light snow for the majority of the area 

[wdrag]

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Euro with light snow for the majority of the area 

Thanks .. looks like it's coming.  Let see the surprises.  I'll try to be up for some of this.

 

 

[hudsonvalley21]

29 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Thanks .. looks like it's coming.  Let see the surprises.  I'll try to be up for some of this.

 

 

28/16 here currently with partly cloudy skies. Maybe we could drop another degree or two.

[wdrag]

26/18 here in Wantage and generally overcast with a very light north wind.  00z HRRR has this as a 1A-8A event for most of our area and now is colder with measurable snow to NYC/noethern Li. We shall know more in the morning. Seemingly no big deal most of the time, but this winter, if it measures NYC,  that will be a relatively big deal for 12/24 along with slippery conditions on all untreated surfaces along and north of I80. This may be my last post for much of the night. 

[ForestHillWx]

29/16 here. Would be nice to see mood flakes. 

[Snowlover11]

will be nice to see flakes flying even if its not much at this point

[wishcast_hater]

Light to moderate dry snow falling here in Dutchess County. Everything covered. Looks like this first wave is almost over. Waiting for the second. Maybe will get 1” by morning. Nice but a sad state of affairs.


.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Same here a little north of Poughkeepsie. 28 with Light/moderate snow, coating right now. 

[snowman19]

The new HRRR has next to nothing now. It’s drying the whole precip shield out. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2021122404&fh=16

[gravitylover]

Radar says it's snowing. It isn't.

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Radar says it's snowing. It isn't.

Virga here too. There is a boundary layer dry punch. The HRRR is still showing nothing for accumulations 

[RedSky]

Initial snow grains now a few flakes and 32F it ho ho blows

 

[RedSky]

Back edge is dumping dip N dots first .10" for the winter

 

 

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ at 230A Dec 24

0.3" snowfall and snowing at a pretty good clip. 25/23 light ne wind. 

It is beautiful.  Everything covered nicely. 

[Snowlover11]

Snowing in Yonkers.

[Nibor]

Very light snow in Astoria. 

[BxSnowWx37]

Snowing in the bronx..looks like some good bands are in coming with the backedge. 

[Tatamy]

Light Snow/Graupel mix here.  0.5” new. 28*

[Nibor]

Some decent radar returns over the immediate metro at the moment.

[Rtd208]

Flurries have begun in the Carteret/Woodbridge NJ area. 

Current temp 33

[Nibor]

Moderate snow now. Sticking to most surfaces. 

[gravitylover]

Tough call on the temp, it varies by 5° in a half square mile area from 23-28, SSE 3-5 and snowing nicely. Good flake size and it's starting to accumulate. 

[Nibor]

What a wonderful little event this is. 

[BxSnowWx37]

The final band should be gd. Nyc Is doing well with this little event rn..still snowing moderately here..

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Virga here too. There is a boundary layer dry punch. The HRRR is still showing nothing for accumulations 

It's snowing Mr Grinch

[MJO812]

 

Flurries here

Car tops whitened =)

[Rmine1]

Moderate snow on SS LI. Maybe 1/2”.

[Rtd208]

Light snow in the Carteret/Woodbridge NJ area. 

Current temp 32

[Rjay]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The new HRRR has next to nothing now. It’s drying the whole precip shield out. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2021122404&fh=16