Strong El Nino or not to Strong El Nino?

[StormchaserChuck!]

We are going on the 6th year of record breaking -PNA, after the 15-16 Strong El Nino (1year)

We have seen similar things in the past... The 1997-98 Strong El Nino reversed for 4 years. 

1982-1983 Strong El Nino reversed for 3 years. 

1972-1973 Strong El Nino reversed for 3 years. 

So these Strong El Nino's happen since the satelite era of 1948, and we reverse it, is 3x longer 4/4 times. Recently it's 6x greater. The bounce back > Strong El Nino effects. 4 is a small sample, but still.. 

(When the bounce back was weakest 84-86, we followed that with 6/8, 8/11 +ENSO years thereafter.) 

 

[raindancewx]

You've been quite the busy bee with all of these little threads.

The trick I know for one year leads in ENSO is the December precipitation pattern.

1938, 1950, 1956, 1964, 1967, 1971, 1975, 1985, 1996, 2005, 2008, 2017 - those are your La Nina Decembers that were followed in a year by an El Nino. Now look at this December. Admittedly, there is a shit load of moisture dumping into the West still, so the map will change.

The main features I look for are a dry-spot centered on Amarillo, NW wetness, and wetness in the Midwest. The other La Ninas, that don't turn into El Ninos, are much more erratic in December for precipitation. The La Ninas that don't turn into El Ninos look very different. 

I will say the displacement of the precipitation into CA v. the NW bothers me a bit. That's an AMO thing. It was record warm in November back to the 1800s, even using the de-trended nonsense CPC does. You can see the dry streak and wet spot are damn near identical to the AMO November correlation. The correlation to the AMO is weak, but it does work when the AMO is strongly positive or negative.

[StormchaserChuck!]

That's a good post, I don't see how CA/NV/AZ/UT/NM/CO can get cold again/trough that brings Spring severe weather in the Spring, without some major change. High pressure is setting up permanently there. 

[raindancewx]

As far as strength:

Rising solar + El Nino following two La Ninas: 

1957-58, 1968-69, 1986-87, 1997-98, 2009-10

Sunspots/month July-Jun:

1957-58 - 281.6

1968-69 - 155.7

1986-87 - 19.1

1997-98 - 54.9

2009-10 - 13.2

Blend: 104.9 sunspots (my guess is 60 for 2021-22, and then 100 for July 2022-June 2023).

Strength in Nino 3.4 in DJF:

1957-58: 28.16C (+1.66C)

1968-69: 27.54C (+1.04C)

1986-87: 27.76C (+1.26C)

1997-98: 28.87C (+2.27C)

2009-10: 28.14C (+1.64C)

Blend: 28.09C (+1.59C) - a strong El Nino

The other check is the transition. So:

1956-57: 26.10C (-0.40C)

1967-68: 25.77C (-0.73C)

1985-86: 26.04C (-0.46C)

1996-97: 26.11C (-0.39C)

2008-09: 25.79C (-0.71C)

Blend: 25.96C (-0.54C) - a weak La Nina. This event will likely finish around 25.8C in Nino 3.4 in DJF.

 

I'm not fully convinced of an El Nino, but the early evidence is promising. In the Southwest, the coldest/wettest winters are low solar, with a huge warm up from a strong La Nina to a strong El Nino. Warm ups over 2.0C in Nino 3.4 in one year are very rare actually - but they do tend to be awesome winters here, both cold and wet. Solar would be high which would diminish the effect somewhat. The biggest warm ups (2.0C or greater gain in Nino 3.4) y/y since 1950 are likely 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, 2009-10, 2015-16. I'd imagine 1957, 1968, and a few others are close too.

Conceptually, I'd score the potential for cold next year with a big El Nino like this for the Southwest for cold/wetness/snow compared to recent El Ninos. For us, it might be a bit cold, but I'd wager on a very wet pattern more than a very cold pattern.

El Nino      Strength      Prior Year Pattern     Solar      Ideal (30=perfect pattern)

1997           10                     7                              7            24

2002           8                      5                              2            15

2004           6                      3                              7            16

2006           7                      8                               9           24

2009           9                      8                              10           27

2014            6                      6                              5            17     

2015           10                      2                              7            19

2018            7                      8                               9            24

2019            5                      2                               10          17

2021?         7-9?                  8                               3-4?     18-21?

[StormchaserChuck!]

El Nino states seem to be more about the globe warming