BornAgain13 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 0z CMC is still a cutter FWIW Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 ICON much closer to the GFS solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z CMC is still a cutter FWIW Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Canadian is a joke. It's own ensembles have been laughing at the OP.. that h5 is going to produce one hell of a storm if it's still showing something remotely close as we get to Sunday night time frame and start to hone in on specifics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: 204 on the GFS looks like it may end up have a GL Low which of course is no bueno for the second storm, see what happens next frame. Unless it phased and pulled coastal back . With a block in place, that's a possibility. Cold would be wrapped under the GL LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 0z CMC is still a cutter FWIW Sent from my SM-N981U using TapatalkCMC h5 made a subtle cave towards the GFS when loopedSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 0z GEFS holds serve. Looks good againSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 0z GEFSSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 GEFS shifted totals quite a bit NW, towards the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 What would it take to get a widespread snowstorm around the NC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, NJsnow89 said: What would it take to get a widespread snowstorm around the NC area? An act of God :+) I moved up to the Raleigh area in 2019. Been mostly meh since. Blame me. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: An act of God :+) I moved up to the Raleigh area in 2019. Been mostly meh since. Blame me. Well, I’m more east of you in Wilson county and the latest trends aren’t great for us. Hopefully we can luck out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 6z EURO took a shift towards the GFSSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 6z GFS was pretty ugly.. the 6z GEFS was about the same as 0z.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 15 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 6z GFS was pretty ugly.. the 6z GEFS was about the same as 0z. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Yea agreed sloppy phase. Very odd evolution. The naysayers and the Debbie downers are starting to rear their ugly heads. Let’s hope 12z at least provides a little clarity one way or the other. I did see where the s/w is coming over Alaska tonight they’ve been doing launches for data purposes and that is supposed to be ingested into the 0z models tonight. This is where the models are deviating from one another due to the strength of that s/w. Euro keeps it more consolidated vs gfs has it start to stretch to where downstream we all see it more east of the euro and the other models showing cutter scenarios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The NAM looks decent to me WRT handling the energy out west. We do need this to dig quite a bit more and/or phase sooner than the GFS to have a shot at significant accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 @Buddy1987 , how are u feeling about it? I know we are 6 days out but I don't feel to good about this. I hate to say that. Would love to be wrong but this, at the moment, screams rain, cold front, with a little snow after the front moves through. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I've seen this so many times, where most models aren't showing much, and 1 or 2 does, then the 1 or 2 fold to the others. Again, I hope I'm wrong. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 This one is on life support unless you are in upslope area of wnc 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This one is on life support unless you are in upslope area of wnc Thank goodness. Bloo Q Kazoo was getting a little worried. Now I don’t have to worry about my flight getting cancelled due to snow. Whew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 19 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: @Buddy1987 , how are u feeling about it? I know we are 6 days out but I don't feel to good about this. I hate to say that. Would love to be wrong but this, at the moment, screams rain, cold front, with a little snow after the front moves through. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Honestly don’t feel good about it.. time and time again it never fails. The least snowiest model always rules around our forum. I’m hoping we get lucky and for the most part the GFS/Ensembles have been very consistent but a lot of the other models I feel like people are pulling at straws. I was one of them. Not gonna lose hope but kinda speaking the truth here so I don’t get let down like usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Seeing a polar vortex or piece of it over the lakes is pretty impressive. This can sometimes produce strong vorts/clippers for our area. There's a lot of possibilities, but I don't see anything until after this upcoming system. The ski areas are about to cash in big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 THIS.HAPPENS.EVERY.SINGLE. WINTER. Remember last year how the models were so wack? And ended up with two 3" snow events imby... stop freaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 THIS.HAPPENS.EVERY.SINGLE. WINTER. Remember last year how the models were so wack? And ended up with two 3" snow events imby... stop freaking out. Yeah, and who was king last winter?GFS Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Got any pics or snippets for those who cant see 6z Thanks Benefits of Weatherbell!Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Did anyone actually think the GFS would win? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Did anyone actually think the GFS would win? I held out some hope after recent memory had the GFS dethroning EURO last winter. This sucks but what are you gonna do.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 We all saw the writing on the wall but there will be other chances. Perhaps some post frontal flurries Friday will brighten spirits.The biggest takeaway is that if Brick didn’t show up, don’t get too excited RDU folks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 GFS caves and it is game over. Maybe in 2024? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Hey at least we have this to look forward to 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Though it may be subtle, the 12Z CMC especially and the GFS to a lesser extent had changes vs the 6Z/0Z that went in a good direction toward possibly reviving the 12/26 threat. The CMC has a storm form offshore the SE that actually gives some sleet to coastal NC while the GFS has a W GOM low (though weak) form for the first time in 5 runs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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