Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022

[Prismshine Productions]

The GFS started out smokin and ended up Chokin

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So Falcons in the Super Bowl

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[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

A few more NW trends and Minnesota/Illinois are in the game. 

[Jonathan]

A tale as old as time. We see this happen with EVERY potential system DEC-FEB every winter. Climate change and ENSO background state will outweigh every positive teleconnection you can have. Ninas gonna Nina. There's a reason we don't get cold and snow in Ninas. We get baited by these computers EVERY time and swear we won't do it again.

This "cold shot/cold pattern" will be a 2-day deal on the models by early next week and we'll be wondering why we're running the AC at Christmas/New Year's yet again. One thing I REALLY can't believe is that the models even fooled Brad Panovich. He's usually rock-steady in the "nothing's gonna happen, social media is just being crazy with snow maps."  He took the bait yesterday, made a YT video and everything. That's something you don't see often. The models get us Every. Single. Time.

Yesterday: Snow
Today: Mix
Tomorrow: Rain
The Next Day: Tornado outbreak
GFS folds to Euro

EVERY. TIME. Winter is so awesome!

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, Jonathan said:

A tale as old as time. We see this happen with EVERY potential system DEC-FEB every winter. ENSO background state will outweigh every positive teleconnection you can have. Ninas gonna Nina. There's a reason we don't get cold and snow in Ninas. We get baited by these computers EVERY time and swear we won't do it again.

This "cold shot/cold pattern" will be a 2-day deal on the models by early next week and we'll be wondering why we're running the AC at Christmas/New Year's yet again. One thing I REALLY can't believe is that the models even fooled Brad Panovich. He's usually rock-steady in the "nothing's gonna happen, social media is just being crazy with snow maps."  He took the bait yesterday, made a YT video and everything. That's something you don't see often. The models get us Every. Single. Time.

Yesterday: Snow
Today: Mix
Tomorrow: Rain
GFS folds to Euro

EVERY. TIME. Winter is so awesome!

Nina the Ninja . 

[Prismshine Productions]

GEFS went boom

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[Jonathan]

12 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

A few more NW trends and Minnesota/Illinois are in the game. 

You know what WON'T trend NW?

That system everyone was watching for 12/26. It's now out to sea on all data and you can kiss that goodbye.

[SnowDawg]

Snow mean back up on the GEFS. Interested to look at the individual members. 

Through 7 am Christmas Eve.

[SnowDawg]

1 minute ago, Jonathan said:

You know what WON'T trend NW?

That system everyone was watching for 12/26. It's now out to sea on all data and you can kiss that goodbye.

Only on operationals. Ensembles still have it on the table. No way to have any feeling for the trailing storm until we can get a handle on the first one.

[BornAgain13]

Definitely encouraging to see the 18z GEFS looking better even from 12Z! I think we all needed that after the OP run

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[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

GEFS went boom

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Big trend from 12z towards more digging of the trough

[buckeyefan1]

19 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

You know what WON'T trend NW?

That system everyone was watching for 12/26. It's now out to sea on all data and you can kiss that goodbye.

Go outside and play and stop being a drama king over systems that are 7-10 days away  

[buckeyefan1]

While we wait on the next run, here is 12z from the gfs and dr no. Can you spot the difference 

 

[CaryWx]

14 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

While we wait on the next run, here is 12z from the gfs and dr no. Can you spot the difference 

 

Yes.  Yes I can.  Hint: Look at the states of Montana and Idaho vs the Dakotas.

[Prismshine Productions]

18z EURO at hr90 was a alight improvement over 12z. Taller heights on the ridge

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[85snowline]

Well... can't wait for the ensembles to flip back in our favor!!! Love reading weenie posts and especially those who have the knowledge to explain them... weeee

[GaWx]

 For a wx history lover like me, the highest Montana/N Wyoming SLP next Thursday will be fun to track. That's because the 12Z ICON forecasted a max of 1067 mb on 12/22 and both the 12Z GFS and Euro forecasted 1065 mb on 12/22 in that area, which would be a new record high for the lower 48! The highest on record back to the late 1800s is 1064, set in Miles City, MT, on 12/24/1983. The 2nd highest is 1063.3 mb, which was at Helena, MT, on 1/10/1962.

 But the other three main models are lower. On 12/22 the 12Z JMA is at 1061, CMC is 1060, and the UKMET is only near 1050. So, we'll see whether or not these ICON/Euro/GFS runs end up too high. The odds are that they're too high but that remains to be seen. 
 
 On 12/24/1983, the PNA was -1.1, the AO was +2.8, and the NAO was 0.0.
 

 On 1/10/1962, the PNA was +0.5, the AO was -+1.1, and the NAO was +0.9.
 
 Per today's GEFS forecasts for 12/22:

1. PNA neutral and rising

2. AO still very strongly negative 

3. NAO neutral and rising

 What might this very strong high portend for the SE US? To get an idea of the potential, let's look at what the 1983 and 1962 Arctic highs lead to at ATL and RDU:

 At Atlanta:

- The 12/24/1983 high lead to 3 days in a row that didn't exceed 32 (12/24-26) with a coldest of 0 on 12/25. They had some ZR on 12/27 as they warmed. They had a followup cold blast that got them down to 10 on 12/30.

- The 1/10/1962 high also lead to three days in a row that didn't get above 32 (1/10-12). Atl got down to 8 on 1/11. It also had 3.5" of snow preceding it on 1/9.

 
At RDU:

- The 12/24/1983 high lead to two days in a row that didn't rise above 32 (12/25-6) and a coldest of 4 on 12/25. They then had some wintry precip on 12/28 as they warmed followed by another cold blast that got them down to 11 on 12/31.

- The 1/10/1962 high lead to two days in a row that didn't get above 32, 1/11-12. Their coldest was 5 on 1/11. This was preceded by 5" of snow on 1/10.

US pressure records from here:

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/world-and-us-anticyclonic-high-barometric-pressure-records.html

[BornAgain13]

Just a guess, I'm thinking the 0z GFS looks better than 18z but not quite what it was before. Since the ensembles improved and the OP run was the opposite... just me guessing. I guess we will see.

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[Tullioz]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

For a wx history lover like me, the highest Montana/N Wyoming SLP next Thursday will be fun to track.

This is something I have been watching as closely as the possibility of Wintry precipitation late next week. December 24/25, 1983 is an experience I would love to repeat as it's a top 5 weather event for me despite the lack of any precipitation.

At 12:00am Dec. 24th the temperature at my location in Eden, NC was 34; at 8am it was 23; by Noon 15; and by 5pm the temperature had fallen to +4. At 11:45pm I recorded a low of -1 for the day. Along with the falling temperatures were winds of 25 to 35mph with higher gusts at times. In my journal I recorded that we had wind chill temperatures of -25 to -35 during the day, but that was using the old scale.

Christmas Day I recorded a high of 14 and a low of -4 with sunny skies. 

In my entry for Dec. 26th I recorded a high of 22 after a low of +2. I mentioned sleet and freezing rain on the evening of the 27th with a high of 29 after a morning low of 18. After a "mild" high of 34 on the 28th, the 29th saw repeat of falling temperatures during the day going from 34 at midnight, to 19 by 5pm. December 30th saw a high of 23 after a morning low of +6. 

[BooneWX]

Ridge looks flatter than 18z at hr 90 but let’s see how this goes 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

HP over Minnesota looks to be a tad slower coming down and stronger (7mb) than the same frame on the 18z (hr 96 on 0z, 102 on 18z)

[Buddy1987]

Pretty significant changes with the s/w and the amplification with it. Noticeable throughout a good portion of the run thus far. Really curious to see what happens to the surface once we get there in just a couple.

[BooneWX]

And the windshield wiper continues 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Hour 150, has every indication of going Boom. good placement for the LP coming up, but see what happens in the next frame. Something to watch for is it looks like it almost want to form a hybrid miller A/B at 136, though it has a ways to go, but definite energy interaction.(IMO)

[85snowline]

58 minutes ago, Tullioz said:

This is something I have been watching as closely as the possibility of Wintry precipitation late next week. December 24/25, 1983 is an experience I would love to repeat as it's a top 5 weather event for me despite the lack of any precipitation.

At 12:00am Dec. 24th the temperature at my location in Eden, NC was 34; at 8am it was 23; by Noon 15; and by 5pm the temperature had fallen to +4. At 11:45pm I recorded a low of -1 for the day. Along with the falling temperatures were winds of 25 to 35mph with higher gusts at times. In my journal I recorded that we had wind chill temperatures of -25 to -35 during the day, but that was using the old scale.

Christmas Day I recorded a high of 14 and a low of -4 with sunny skies. 

In my entry for Dec. 26th I recorded a high of 22 after a low of +2. I mentioned sleet and freezing rain on the evening of the 27th with a high of 29 after a morning low of 18. After a "mild" high of 34 on the 28th, the 29th saw repeat of falling temperatures during the day going from 34 at midnight, to 19 by 5pm. December 30th saw a high of 23 after a morning low of +6. 

Was only 6yrs old and can remember it being SOOO COLD!! Seems like my grandmother got snowed in with us too! Lived in Rockwell in Rowan County att.

[Buddy1987]

Idc what the surface shows at 144 that H5 map is a thing of freakin beauty.. we have this same look in 2 days and there is going to be something epic happening along the eastern seaboard.

18Z 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

156, DEFINITE improvement over 18z, at least the LP is on this side of the Apps. Regardless of precip falling, that is a big step back in the right direction. Haven't looked at the upper air charts yet.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

1 minute ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

156, DEFINITE improvement over 18z, at least the LP is on this side of the Apps. Regardless of precip falling, that is a big step back in the right direction. Haven't looked at the upper air charts yet.

Not sure if this run will do/show it, but has a potential setup for a huge NWF up in the mountains.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

156, DEFINITE improvement over 18z, at least the LP is on this side of the Apps. Regardless of precip falling, that is a big step back in the right direction. Haven't looked at the upper air charts yet.

Need that lead wave to slow down a little, which it has in consecutive runs now. Want that energy to catch up on the backside and make this thing go bananas.

[BornAgain13]

Not really sure what I just witnessed but an improvement over 18z. We get 1/4" of ice and 2-4" of Snow taken verbatim lol

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[UnionCountyNCWX]

Massive change at 174(not really affecting our forum) but compared to the 18z, it FLIES to the NE. Left of Maine at 0z, when at 18z, the LP is in the southern part of Pennsylvania.