Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Guys I gotta say the GFS ENS has me salivating with the setup. If the strong block modeled around the 22nd/23rd can force the 50/50 underneath it there is no telling the fireworks that could go off in that setup. If it doesn’t eastern seaboard (maybe Philly north would look to cash in). It could easily happen so stay tuned. The 500 setup is about as good as you can get for an east coast snowstorm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 1:34 PM, GaWx said: The latest GEFS forecast for AO implies a good chance for a ~-3 AO for 12/16-31. Since 1950 (assuming I didn't miss any), the only lower AOs for 12/16-31 were in 1950, 1976, 2000, 2009, and 2010. So, 2022 is aiming to have the 6th lowest AO for 12/16-31. 1995 was just above -3 and would be 7th lowest if this forecast holds. Since 2010, there have been none that were -2 or lower. What were the SE US temps and wintry precip for those 12/16-31s? I haven't checked that yet. If I get time, I'll look them up. Followup as I just compiled the effects on RDU and ATL from the strongest -AOs averaged out 12/16-31 since 1950. 2022's 12/16-31 is per today's GEFS flirting with ending up with an average of near -3. Here are the strongest: 2009: -4.5 1950: -3.8 2010: -3.7 1976: -3.5 2000: -3.4 1995: -2.8 So, 2022 is as of now aiming for 6th or 7th strongest 12/16-31 -AO since 1950. That would mean 92-93 percentile. How were these six last half of Decembers at RDU and ATL in terms of temperature anomaly, lowest temperature, and wintry precip? 1) RDU: 2009: 6 BN, 23, 0.2" SN/IP 1950: 9 BN, 13, 0.3" SN/IP, 0.41" ZR 2010: 8 BN, 19, 7.5" SN/IP, 0.47" ZR 1976: 6 BN, 9, 0.0" SN/IP 2000: 11 BN, 12, 0.1" SN/IP 1995: 8 BN, 18, 0.0" SN/IP AVG 8 BN, 16, 1.4" SN/IP, 0.15" ZR 2) ATL: 2009: 5 BN, 27, T of SN/IP 1950: 6 BN, 18, 0.0" SN/IP, 0.77" ZR 2010: 5 BN, 23, 1.4" SN/IP 1976: 7 BN, 13, 0.0" SN/IP 2000: 13 BN, 13, 3.0", SN/IP 1995: 7 BN, 21, 0.0" SN/IP AVG 7 BN, 19, 0.7" SN/IP, 0.13" ZR What does this tell me about the last half of this month in the SE? 1. Cold to very cold most days very likely. 2. Good chance for RDU coldest to be teens and ATL coldest to be teens or low 20s. 3. Assume non-cold dominated operational runs not supported by ensembles are likely wrong. 4. Significant wintry precip hard to predict as is normal for the SE. One third of the analogs at RDU and half at ATL had significant. That's a larger % than the overall climo % for just the last half of December, which is intuitive since it is so cold. Thus the average wintry precip for the six analogs is well above normal for that period even though there could still easily be nothing significant or possibly none at all. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Lol snow in orange beach I'll believe it when I see it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 That's a pretty substantial jump south on that run with the big northern stream wave next week. Definitely plenty of time to hopefully see that trend towards digging just a bit more. Maybe a longshot but the ensembles have continuously had at least a few members with a storm in this timeframe. Perhaps even more interesting could be the subsequent piece of energy that wraps around that TPV lobe once it gets stuck under the block, the GEFS at 18z indroduced a lot more QPF around the 25th/26th, but only time will tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 00 has a nice little storm for eastern and central NC on Dec 26 per gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 0z GFS with a solid run from start to finish. Showing a white Christmas for northern NC, all of VA.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 4 hours ago, Grayman said: 00 has a nice little storm for eastern and central NC on Dec 26 per gfs And this 0Z GFS storm is in reality actually almost all snow since 850s are all below 0C. The southern part of this goes all of the way down to the FL/GA border! This is still way out in fantasyland and is thus mainly for entertainment as of now. However, this is about the third GFS run over the last few days showing SE coastal wintry precip. The 0Z 12/14 GFS also had a winter storm for the same timeframe that included the SE coast though it was mainly IP/ZR there (see 2nd image). This one, like that one, actually starts on 12/25 and thus would mean a white Christmas for many! From 0Z 12/14 GFS run: This was the first one showing significant wintry precip for the coast (mainly IP/ZR with this from the 18Z 12/12 run for 12/27): 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Of course none of this whatsoever constitutes “reality.” Look out the window, there’s reality. Look at the long range models, there’s a different reality—-hope, at best, most often followed by despair. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 23rd-26thSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: 23rd-26th Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk A great sign on the ensembles. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Storm signal is definitely their for the 23rd-26th. Time to hopefully track something...Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Hmm, getting back in the game again as alluded to yesterday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Hmm, getting back in the game again as alluded to yesterday? Speak it into existence! The fat lady hasn’t sung yet. I still feel like we’re due a medium-short term surprise at some point in the next few weeks. The models are struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Painfully close. Painfully. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Big snow incoming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 THIS WILL CRASH THE INTERNET IN ABOUT 10 MIN 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 MERRY WHITE CHRISTMAS! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 First true clown map of the year 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 ATLANTA TO MAINE FOLKS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, wncsnow said: First true clown map of the year Have mercy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Snowpack fueled morning temps in the single digits all the way to the low country 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Awesome! Hope it holds! Rooting for everyone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Geez!! 12z GFS with a Monster right before Christmas. Oh if only! The snow ratios would be unreal. Kuchera showing around 20" here. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 More snow per 12z GFS on the 26th!!Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Anything near Wilson NC? Seems like a lot of this is inland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Anything near Wilson NC? Seems like a lot of this is inlandFind Wilson lolSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Find Wilson lol Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Lol a good 9 inches! Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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