GaWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 18Z GFS is about the coldest GFS run yet for the days just before Christmas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 29 minutes ago, GaWx said: 18Z GFS is about the coldest GFS run yet for the days just before Christmas. 12/21 has an ominous look to it with the GEFS mean just off the coast for majority of the area. Definitely a time to watch that would be closest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 I realize I've been saying winter starts on time and I love our chances for winter fun, but I'm saying it again for those in the back. Winter is going to start on time and I love our chances for some frozen fun 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 55 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: 12/21 has an ominous look to it with the GEFS mean just off the coast for majority of the area. Definitely a time to watch that would be closest. For the record/entertainment way out in the fantasyland period, the 18Z GFS has for here snow flurries on 12/24 from one coastal followed by a whopping ~1" of qpf in the form of sleet/freezing rain on 12/27 from the next coastal. (Some clown maps have this as snow, which it obviously isn't since 850s are clearly several degrees over 0C.) That 1" of qpf of IP/ZR would be the worst here since the devastating icestorm of 1/25-26/1922, the predecessor to the deadly Knickerbocker Storm that hit DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Do you wanna build a snowman~Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Several (~5) 18Z GEFS members have a significant wintry event in this area, something not seen often on model runs. Significant wintry events (say ~1"+ of snow/sleet and/or ~0.25"+ of ZR) have occurred here only ~once every 10 years. So, when these show up on models, they get my interest and they're fun to see but I take with a grain as they more often than not don't materialize. The last two significant wintry events here were biggies: Jan of 2018 and Dec of 1989. The models did a pretty good job of forecasting Jan of 2018 with the ICON doing best here. 18Z GEFS mean (treat these as 10 times wintry qpf as some of this is sleet or ZR rather than snow): 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Happy hour run delivers!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Another happy hour incoming... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Colder than 18z... still a bit of a mess 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Any precip maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 The Op Euro is a disaster if you want cold or winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 06z GFS is like a used car salesman on TV. You get suppression! You get a Great Lakes cutter! Everyone gets pain and misery in the forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 There’s nothing more frustrating to winter weather weenies than op model runs during a pattern change 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 32 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: There’s nothing more frustrating to winter weather weenies than op model runs during a pattern change Agreed! The Euro Ensembles and to a degree the GEFS as well are honking for late next week. That’s what I’m hanging my hat on at this juncture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 45 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Agreed! The Euro Ensembles and to a degree the GEFS as well are honking for late next week. That’s what I’m hanging my hat on at this juncture. Agree also. I do not see anything in the Ops or Ens from overnight that should cause any cliff diving. We have seen far worse patterns this time of the year in recent years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I hope everyone enjoyed the happy hour model runs yesterday because this morning there seems to be a nasty hangover. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, eyewall said: I hope everyone enjoyed the happy hour model runs yesterday because this morning there seems to be a nasty hangover. ICON coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Still a long shot on the table for the upcoming weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Op GFS looks like the Op Euro. No winter weather for the SE in the next 10 days. Cold dump centered over the northern Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Very reminiscent of February 2021 right now. The chances we do have (18th/20th) get crushed by the northern stream and can't amplify so it just rains on coast. Then when a phase finally happens its too far west. Ensembles have still been positive, so its far from cliff diving time, but it's fair to say the trends in the OP's are not good. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I’ve lived here long enough… I know what’s coming. Rain —> Cold —> Rain 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I think we're still seeing some La Niña influences in that there is just too much energy, too fast, all at once. This makes it difficult for any one system to amplify and makes suppression easier as all the waves are weak and flat. I actually wonder if maybe the models are underestimating the block and 50/50 lows slowing down the flow, especially in the medium to long range? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Any snow before Christmas is bonus snow. Let's wait until then and see how the pattern shakes out, once the Arctic air has been established. If we continue to get pushes of cold air, we're bound to score eventually (even if we have to wait until mid January) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: I think we're still seeing some La Niña influences in that there is just too much energy, too fast, all at once. This makes it difficult for any one system to amplify and makes suppression easier as all the waves are weak and flat. I actually wonder if maybe the models are underestimating the block and 50/50 lows slowing down the flow, especially in the medium to long range? I fully agree with this. The amount of energy flying around on the southern jet after Thursdays system is insane. No wonder models are having a difficult time figuring out which piece to latch onto 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I'm more concerned about the ridging in the SE (La Nina) than moisture. Temps are always the main concern here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I fully agree with this. The amount of energy flying around on the southern jet after Thursdays system is insane. No wonder models are having a difficult time figuring out which piece to latch onto I also feel like the constant stream of systems prevents the blocking from ever progressing far enough East. Every low either gets squashed by the HP to the West or pulled north by the system ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 41 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Any snow before Christmas is bonus snow. Let's wait until then and see how the pattern shakes out, once the Arctic air has been established. If we continue to get pushes of cold air, we're bound to score eventually (even if we have to wait until mid January) March 1st has entered the chat..... How many times have we seen this post on here! LOL! The cold dome is on the move but we're going to need better blocking over the next couple of weeks to pull this off. JB is certainly honking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 54 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I'm more concerned about the ridging in the SE (La Nina) than moisture. Temps are always the main concern here. Yeah the moisture will be there especially after what we've seen but the ridge. Trough axis is what will make us or brake us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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