GaWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Looking at the climo of the other eight 3rd year cold ENSO winters since the mid 1800s: 1) Winter of 1894-5: mainly Feb of 1895 (but also the last week of Dec/first few days of Jan) 2) Winter of 1917-8: Dec-Jan of 1917-18 These were two of the most historic lengthy periods on record in the SE US in terms of a combination of multiple wintry events and persistent extreme cold. For example, Dec of 1917/Feb of 1895 are RDU's coldest Dec/Feb and ATL's 2nd coldest Dec/coldest Feb on record. Also, Feb of 1895 is the snowiest ATL month of any on record due to not just one but two major snowstorms along with a third one! In addition, ATL had two major winter storms in Dec-Jan 1917-8. But I'm not just talking about well inland/northerly locations like RDU and ATL. I'm also talking about locations not at all accustomed to this that are far to the south, including right on the Gulf and SE coasts. N.O, had a historically very heavy snow in Feb of 1895. Right here Feb of 1895 was both the coldest Feb on record and it gave a very rare ~2" of snow (that much accumulation has occurred on average only ~once every 20 years). Dec-Jan of 1917-8 had not one but two accumulations. Both were 1/2" or smaller but only ~1/8 of winters have gotten ANY accumulation. Dec of 1917/Feb of 1895 were the 4th coldest Dec/coldest Feb on record here. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Looking at the climo of the other eight 3rd year cold ENSO winters since the mid 1800s: 1) Winter of 1894-5: mainly Feb of 1895 (but also the last week of Dec/first few days of Jan) 2) Winter of 1917-8: Dec-Jan of 1917-18 These were two of the most historic lengthy periods on record in the SE US in terms of a combination of multiple wintry events and persistent extreme cold. For example, Dec of 1917/Feb of 1895 are RDU's coldest Dec/Feb and ATL's 2nd coldest Dec/coldest Feb on record. Also, Feb of 1895 is the snowiest ATL month of any on record due to not just one but two major snowstorms along with a third one! In addition, ATL had two major winter storms in Dec-Jan 1917-8. But I'm not just talking about well inland/northerly locations like RDU and ATL. I'm also talking about locations not at all accustomed to this that are far to the south, including right on the Gulf and SE coasts. N.O, had a historically very heavy snow in Feb of 1895. Right here Feb of 1895 was both the coldest Feb on record and it gave a very rare ~2" of snow (that much accumulation has occurred on average only ~once every 20-25 years). Dec-Jan of 1917-8 had not one but two accumulations. Both were 1/2" or smaller but only ~1/8 of winters have gotten ANY accumulation. Dec of 1917/Feb of 1895 were the 4th coldest Dec/coldest Feb on record here.Sounds like all the teleconnections are there to go boomSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 26 minutes ago, GaWx said: Looking at the climo of the other eight 3rd year cold ENSO winters since the mid 1800s: 1) Winter of 1894-5: mainly Feb of 1895 (but also the last week of Dec/first few days of Jan) 2) Winter of 1917-8: Dec-Jan of 1917-18 These were two of the most historic lengthy periods on record in the SE US in terms of a combination of multiple wintry events and persistent extreme cold. For example, Dec of 1917/Feb of 1895 are RDU's coldest Dec/Feb and ATL's 2nd coldest Dec/coldest Feb on record. Also, Feb of 1895 is the snowiest ATL month of any on record due to not just one but two major snowstorms along with a third one! In addition, ATL had two major winter storms in Dec-Jan 1917-8. But I'm not just talking about well inland/northerly locations like RDU and ATL. I'm also talking about locations not at all accustomed to this that are far to the south, including right on the Gulf and SE coasts. N.O, had a historically very heavy snow in Feb of 1895. Right here Feb of 1895 was both the coldest Feb on record and it gave a very rare ~2" of snow (that much accumulation has occurred on average only ~once every 20-25 years). Dec-Jan of 1917-8 had not one but two accumulations. Both were 1/2" or smaller but only ~1/8 of winters have gotten ANY accumulation. Dec of 1917/Feb of 1895 were the 4th coldest Dec/coldest Feb on record here. Even though im not in the SE area, thats some interesting stuff Larry and still relates to our adjacent areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Don't know if I've ever seen an ensemble run this anomalous at this range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 6z GFS suppressed and strung out with everything after Thursdays system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 6z GFS suppressed and strung out with everything after Thursdays system Kind of what we need, ensembles look solid thoughSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Sandstorm94 said: Kind of what we need, ensembles look solid though Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk I will say this: if parts of the forum don’t score with this look and pattern from next Thursday-January 1 it will be a tough pill to swallow. So much ensemble support and favorable teleconnections. I think the biggest issue we may see play out would be suppression due to the strong HP and cold airmass centered over the east. The center of the cold dome has steadily progressed east and almost to the point of being too close to us. You need to smell the rain most times to get snowstorms in this area so our normal issues may be reversed in this pattern where the cold push may also push and flatten the southern stream. Ensembles still show moisture meeting cold but have backed off a bit from yesterday on the precip over much of the south. Honestly that’s more concerning than the cold air availability, shockingly enough. My concern though still cannot undermine that this is about as good a look for winter weather threats as you can draw up for our region at this range and it is centered around the holidays. Ops will struggle but ensembles are pretty locked in with the cold which for us is always 3/4 of the battle. Let’s ride 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Well that is certainly a different look out to 216...Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Our next system to watch is this coming weekend. Looks suppressed for now, but definitely worth keeping an eye on: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Slight SE ridge still showing up on op models around day 8/9. Can still workout for interior and mountain areas but not if its pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 TN and OH Valley and deep south do well this run. But each system is mostly too warm for snow for NC/SC/GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Canadian agrees that day 9/10 system is a cutter and too warm for east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Slight SE ridge still showing up on op models around day 8/9. Can still workout for interior and mountain areas but not if its pronounced. Low in the lakes is a killer there. Really thought it was about to go boom for the mtns and interior on that one with the highs bridged over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Windshield wiper now in full effectSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 GEFS seems to agree on a lesser cold air push...Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Don't lean on the OP runs this far out. Good or bad 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Deep breaths folks. The ingredients are on the table. Just gotta hope Russell Wilson ain’t the chef. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, eyewall said: I’ll take 33 and rain instead of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Delaying again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 It REALLY doesn't want to get cold east of the Apps on the Op Euro and GFS to some extent. Something to monitor with the models trending toward a colder northwest and La Nina still going. If the Op Euro is right most of next week is in the 50s for the NC Piedmont and foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: Don't lean on the OP runs this far out. Good or bad The TT 12Z GFS map posted below has Alexandria, LA, getting down to -4 F as of 12Z on 12/25. Their coldest on record in December is +7 F (1989) and their coldest on record for any month is +3 F (1899). There's no way this can be anywhere close to real considering that history as well as the run on TT having no colder than ~+13F at Tulsa, OK, for example, from this airmass (on 12/24). Tulsa's all-time coldest in Dec is way down at -8 F (1989), which compares to Alex.'s coldest in 1989 of +7 F. So, in 1989, Tulsa's coldest was 15 colder than Alex, which makes sense. But the 12Z GFS has Alex. ~17 colder than Tulsa's coldest for this airmass. In other words, the 12Z GFS, itself, isn't progging anything near a historic airmass well to its NW but it then gives Alex. an alltime coldest Dec by 11!! I call BS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 39 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Delaying again? Winter cancel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 That ECMWF image is valid on Tuesday 12/20. From looking at the orientation of the cold, it seems to push in after that. American agrees that the really cold would come 12/25 or after. (I know, we keep kicking it down the road), but we aren't even to January yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 The trend of the 6Z and now 12Z model consensus is clearly warmer vs the 0Z/18Z models. Look no further than the NG price, which went back down 7% from its highs early this morning. Keep in mind that it opened up a whopping 10% Sun evening on much colder models vs Fri PM. Now a good portion of that has been given back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Don't look at the 12z EURO. Setting up for a monster winter storm at day 10 with a 1070 High north of Montana Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Maybe I missed something but both the EPS and GEFS looked perfectly fine. If anything, it was a positive trend since the prior ensembles had the type of cold that’ll send the lows into Cuba. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 53 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Maybe I missed something but both the EPS and GEFS looked perfectly fine. If anything, it was a positive trend since the prior ensembles had the type of cold that’ll send the lows into Cuba. It still looks like cold is coming, but I want to clarify my post regarding the NG market's 7% drop back since early this morning after the huge (10%) rise last evening. On a national basis (not specifically SE), the three major 12Z ensemble means were all somewhat less cold overall than their 0Z counterparts on the full 2 week runs. So, in summary, the ensemble means are still significantly colder than they were on Friday, but they're all not quite as cold at 12Z vs 0Z today for the full 2 weeks in the US as a whole. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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