Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022

[buckeyefan1]

The gfs shows a touch of mood flakes/snizzle to celebrate the first day of winter imby   

[buckeyefan1]

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Good news is, according to the Euro and GFS today, other than maybe 1 or 2 days, temps are gonna be chilly or cold through at least the 21st...

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Not down in GA/most of SC though I wish that were the case. Most of 12/8-15 (at least) is forecasted by model consensus to continue significantly warmer than normal as the -PNA dominates. It is after that that we'll finally have a chance for near to possibly BN to dominate deeper into the SE for an unknown period as the PNA rises to at least neutral. We're headed for a very warm first half of December here, similar to 2021, 2015, and 2012 of the ones over the last ten years. How were those three's last half of December here?
-2012: normal

-2015/2021: very warm/warmer than first half!

So, as one who prefers colder than normal and considering it is La Niña, I'd take a near normal second half of December in a heartbeat.

 

[mclean02]

I spy some eye candy finally could we have white (Sleet) Christmas in the Triad?? 

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, mclean02 said:

I spy some eye candy finally could we have white (Sleet) Christmas in the Triad?? 

Incredible that even the new GFS knows where I-85 is

[GaWx]

 The GEFS from 24 hours ago (0Z of 12/7) was suggesting we could finally get a sustained +PNA starting ~12/23. The new run (0Z of 12/8) says no sustained +PNA in the foreseeable future with the ridge instead staying offshore in the E Pacific. Delay, delay, delay...that has been the theme for quite awhile.

 Edit: 0Z EPS concurs that there will be no sustained +PNA pattern through 12/23. It has a cold snap ~12/16-8 with warming afterward, especially deep in the SE where slightly warmer than normal 850s return late and what looks like a La Niña favoring SE ridge possibly rebuilding near the end of the run.

 Like I said earlier, I'd be quite content if I can get a near normal last half of Dec in my area (especially if we could get dews mainly 40s and lower instead of the current/recent 50s to low 60s dews). In other words, something resembling winter unlike the first half of this month.

[olafminesaw]

Perhaps, flooding rains before the cold moves in (pretty decent amounts for a smoothed mean)

[Prismshine Productions]

*me holding on to the 9.8% chance of snow on the 22nd (5/51 members)

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[GaWx]

12Z GEFS 174 vs 0Z 186: 500 mb ridge centered significantly further east on 12Z from NW Canada down to just off the west coast vs Alaska down to well off the west coast on the 0Z. As a result, the mean Arctic surface high centers are further east in NW Canada vs the 0Z. We'll see how the rest of this run evolves, but this is potentially a better setup vs the 0Z if you're wanting a sustained +PNA or at least a less -PNA, which would be more conducive to more sustained cold in the SE US setting up soon after this.

Edit: This results in the 12Z GEFS being the coldest run in many days for the SE US starting 12/18.

[GaWx]

 Per 12Z EPS temperatures for deep SE: warmer than normal most days through 12/15; cold (below to much BN) 12/16-19; back to warmer than normal 12/21-22 followed by cooling back to normal 12/23 with potential for cooler soon after

 The model consensus is pretty set on a cold snap for 12/16-19 after the mainly mild next week or so. The main question is whether or not we get another cold snap during the last week of the month. There likely be will be plenty of cold to our NW, but will a decent piece of that reach deep into the SE? It won't be easy. If it were to do so, there'd be a small chance for December as a whole to end ~normal as opposed to AN. It would take quite a bit of cold then to help negate the very warm 12/1-15.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Finally 

 

 

[JoshM]

0z Happy Hour, weenie run... 

 

 

 

[JoshM]

Here's your clown map...

 

[Buddy1987]

6 minutes ago, JoshM said:

0z Happy Hour, weenie run... 

 

 

 

My first post since last year, which feels kinda weird. Took a pretty long break. Nice to see the threat pop up within 7 days basically. Not some fantasyland 384hr threat. Interesting to see what the models start to possibly sniff out as we close in. 

[BornAgain13]

6z GFS continues the trend on late next week. Euro says to warm right now.

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[olafminesaw]

17 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

6z GFS continues the trend on late next week. Euro says to warm right now.

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Just a little different 

[cneal1031]

Euro has the wedge too, it just breaks down a day earlier than GFS, all about timing.

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[oconeexman]

Icon coming in colder but still a little too warm. But we know the warm bias it has esp in a CAD situation. Gonna be some model watching fun over the next week at least

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[Jonathan]

Regarding Wed-Thu system next week:

- THREE straight runs of mixed precip in the CAD regions on the GFS
- TWO straight runs of a little ice in said CAD regions on the Canadian
- EURO isn't having any of it. Classic battle between the globals NA vs EU.

[CaryWx]

Not to raise a debate about snowpack but I do read differing views on it.  I think the confusion though lies with what we think it does for us.  I for one see it's best benefit for our BL temps and maybe the 850s in some cases.  Other than that not a whole lot as you get higher into the atmosphere and steering currents.

[GaWx]

 The 6Z GEFS was about the coldest GEFS run yet in the SE in general for 12/16-20 and the 12Z is almost as cold.

 Looking ahead to after that period (11-15), here's some food for thought regarding models recently being too cold to keep in mind when looking ahead from a non-hyping pro met company (Maxar) (unlike the hyping Bastardi):

"These are larger swings and much is due to poor model performances of late. As an example, here is how the past five days verified:"

 This is much warmer than the model consensus had when this period was 11-15 days out.

"Looking into these errors, we found that the models underestimated the warmer influence from tropical circulations. Our method was to find MJO cases which also featured the already established –AO. These cases decently matched the upper air pattern that was observed and provides proof that the MJO had a role in what was a warmer period for the Eastern Half. "

"We can’t guarantee that the models are mishandling this forcing again, as one case does not necessarily represent a bias that will continue. That said, the MJO looks to return to those warmer phases within the 11-15 Day period, and this contributes to our forecast leaning warmer than the models for the South and East during that period."

"The alternative is based on model projections at 500mb. The upcoming cold pattern is due to a strong polar ridge, with signals like the –AO and –EPO. As of now, the models show colder than normal air reaching the South and East, at least for a few days, but are more anomalous from the Northwest to the North-Central:"

"When we look at the –AO and –EPO correlations, they imply a colder risk for the South and East as well:"

"So mixed signals is the message here, between the warmer forcing from the tropics to the colder pattern signals being projected. Confidence is lower than usual as a result."

[Jonathan]

It's a real shame that the MJO is basically allergic to phases 7-8-1 anymore. You hardly ever see it in general, and you almost never see it in winter. I'm guessing this has to do with climate change causing warmer SSTs in certain areas causing more tropical forcing "there" than elsewhere.

[olafminesaw]

Merry Christmas

[GaWx]

We're pretty much on course for a cold most of 12/16-20 in most of the SE. Shortly after, we warm to normal to above for ~2 days at least. So, I'd like to look further:

 Take it with a grain considering recent models being too cold in the 11-15 day period, but fwiw the 12Z EPS is decidedly colder at 850 mb and the 500 mb pattern is also more conducive for it to not warm up as much or for as long after the aforementioned brief warmup. It suggests cold likely returns to much of the SE by 12/23. Again, fwiw! But I prefer models showing this as opposed to not because I would strongly  prefer the return of cold over the warmth of the first half of this month! 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[BornAgain13]

18z GFS pulled the rug out of course. I wouldn't expect anything less. When the Euro ain't showing the storms, don't go with the ones that are.

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[CaryWx]

16 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GFS pulled the rug out of course. I wouldn't expect anything less. When the Euro ain't showing the storms, don't go with the ones that are.

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Have you seen the 12z euro and what it's showing?