Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 I'm not sure if it's just harder to get a pattern that historically produces snow here in the past, if those patterns just don't produce snow like they used to, or the historically great patterns show up on the medium to long range on the models but then change and never happen down the road. Maybe it's all three. Former local met Greg Fishel said the air off the ocean makes it harder for my area to get snow compared to further west in NC. I wonder if the warming of the oceans is making that more and more of a factor in limiting snow here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said: I'm not sure if it's just harder to get a pattern that historically produces snow here in the past, if those patterns just don't produce snow like they used to, or the historically great patterns show up on the medium to long range on the models but then change and never happen down the road. Maybe it's all three. Former local met Greg Fishel said the air off the ocean makes it harder for my area to get snow compared to further west in NC. I wonder if the warming of the oceans is making that more and more of a factor in limiting snow here. Dude. Your area averages about 6" a year. You just remember the good years and not the bad one's. I remember several in the 90's and even 80's that sucked In the mtns. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 59 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I'm not sure if it's just harder to get a pattern that historically produces snow here in the past, if those patterns just don't produce snow like they used to, or the historically great patterns show up on the medium to long range on the models but then change and never happen down the road. Maybe it's all three. Former local met Greg Fishel said the air off the ocean makes it harder for my area to get snow compared to further west in NC. I wonder if the warming of the oceans is making that more and more of a factor in limiting snow here. I feel like global warming in general is definitely already making an impact locally. To me, it’s almost as if “normal” climo has shifted 1-2 states north already. As in - DC and the upper mid Atlantic gets wintry bouts at a pace we used to be accustomed to and likewise here that many in say the midlands of SC or Georgia (no offense to you guys, I just mean it quite literally) had been accustomed to prior. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Dude. Your area averages about 6" a year. You just remember the good years and not the bad one's. I remember several in the 90's and even 80's that sucked In the mtns. Not anymore. The average has been steadily decreasing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 We haven't had an abundance of great patterns over the last bunch of years. If we had, I would see the point about great patterns don't produce like they used to. I do think there is something to the point about easterly flow off the oceans affecting eastern parts of the state under certain circumstances. But that's a small part of the problem. We just need to start to buckle the jet in the east again, instead of having winter after winter with troughs sitting in the west. Anyway, we should see a better period ahead soon. I expect we'll be able to track a few storms this winter. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 more fantasy land eye candy, looks like a 2002 redux 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 7 hours ago, JoshM said: more fantasy land eye candy, looks like a 2002 redux The models are starting to honk more for that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 12 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: I'm not sure if it's just harder to get a pattern that historically produces snow here in the past, if those patterns just don't produce snow like they used to, or the historically great patterns show up on the medium to long range on the models but then change and never happen down the road. Maybe it's all three. Former local met Greg Fishel said the air off the ocean makes it harder for my area to get snow compared to further west in NC. I wonder if the warming of the oceans is making that more and more of a factor in limiting snow here. You are right that your average is starting to change. Our climate zone has changed here in the midlands of SC. We shifted from a 7b to an 8a. Not a huge change but since the change is based on 30 year averages, I suspect we are closer to 8b. So in general it is just a bit more difficult to get snow in the south east. https://e360.yale.edu/features/redrawing-the-map-how-the-worlds-climate-zones-are-shifting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Climo hasn't change in my back yard for snow. I've gotten between 2-4 inches nearly every year since 1990 with the exception of 2010-2011 when I had 7.5 inches total(spread across two events). There were 4 or maybe 5 winters where I've gotten nothing but trace accumulations or less across the last 30 years and they've been evenly spread out within that time frame. Also, take a look at the Arkansas/Texas region last year. They got a once in a 100 year type snow/cold event last winter. Pretty much the entire state of Arkansas got 12-20 inches of snow that stayed on the ground for weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Interestingly, the Triad’s snowfall average has not significantly changed, and the region has done quite well over the last decade, the previous two years notwithstanding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 ICON is close to showing something good for next week. I would rather see something like this show up less than a week out than a 10 day out storm that never actually happens. Also would rather see temps between 34 and say 28 than a hard freeze that usually just means cold and dry. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 CMC looks similar to the ICON. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 End of the CMC looks good. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 The UKMET has something cooking on day 6,snow breaking out over western NC. Looks like the Jan2nd monster showed up on the 240 Canadian also today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 I think the 13th to the 20th period is looking very promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I think the 13th to the 20th period is looking very promising. Without looking at records, I'd wager that time period is the "snowiest" for our region. Seems like MLK weekend and days before/after are always good ones for snow chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, PackGrad05 said: Without looking at records, I'd wager that time period is the "snowiest" for our region. Seems like MLK weekend and days before/after are always good ones for snow chances. Yes, it does seem we get some good storms the second half of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 EURO came in suppressed. Might not be a bad thing this far out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 30 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: EURO came in suppressed. Might not be a bad thing this far out. Not much cold air to speak of though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 22 hours ago, Billypg70 said: I think a lot on this board will be happy by the middle part of Feb. Another lie of this magnitude and there will be serious consequences. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Yeah if we did have a favorable pattern we would need the low by Key West to start on the models before an inevitable north trend. Certainly everything that looked good for us early on has gone to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Right now it doesn't look great of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 No doubt about it , the pattern is about to be as close to perfect as you can get coming up.... wouldn't surprise me if we really start seeing the OP models start showing a lot of clown colors soon.... 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Positive AAM is better for higher latitude blocking. Blocking is more prevelant during El Ninos (+AAM) rather than La Ninas (-AAM) during the winter time and this is related to the location of tropical forcing. Key word here is location of the tropical forcing (MJO)If this is good blocking can still be achieved meaning you want p8,p1.p2,sometimes p7 if in January.Plus the SOI is hinting more El Ninoish lately (-7.63 today) The AAM weakened but has leveled off and is ticking back upwards and is still plenty positive.I have my own opinion what drives this but I think it can stay positive most of the month.It may dip again after Jan 16-18th but not drop to negative,patterns often get stuck in low solar as well. Just my opinion. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 I think the monster showed up again today,GFS 12z 252-264 hour lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: I think the monster showed up again today,GFS 12z 252-264 hour lol It seems there's some data issues with the GFS, but showing on the old fashioned NWS site. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Well I only get 20'' this run,Triad lollipops around 30''.Might wanna save this one too lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Lol at the Wake County gradient 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, wake4est said: Lol at the Wake County gradient Historically correct 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Realistically in that scenario the triad and SE would be at least half sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 GFS phases the two streams as did the Canadian did yesterday,then you get the monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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