Jonathan Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 GFS just keeps on with this Friday system...another solid hit on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Would love for that GFS run to verify. Definitely need to see the Euro show something to get excited...Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Would love for that GFS run to verify. Definitely need to see the Euro show something to get excited... Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk For sure. Euro is flatter, weaker and warmer during the day Friday. I know who my bet would be on, but hey at least maybe it's a sign of a potential early start to winter before we wear shorts on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 16, 2022 Author Share Posted November 16, 2022 It won't be long before one of these adorable bowling balls brings us some frozen fun 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Lock it in: 1 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, eyewall said: Lock it in: Bless God! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Lock it in:I’m out. Only shows 1” for me. Gesh . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 hour ago, strongwxnc said: I’m out. Only shows 1” for me. Gesh . I'm out too. Getting a new roof installed. Going to have to ask that this event be moved two days please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Man I can't wait until we ditch this cold snap. I'd like to get some days on the water in December and bag some red snapper before it's too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Seems based on the GEFS & EPS, the pattern flips to torch right around the 1st of December. Right on schedule! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Seems based on the GEFS & EPS, the pattern flips to torch right around the 1st of December. Right on schedule! Don’t worry! This pattern will re-emerge in April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 https://twitter.com/NsfwWx/status/1594164208287076353?s=20&t=PlDWPjSgbVme2v21fo9DbA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 44 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Hmmm One heck of a storm if it verifies. Lots of rain for the southeast too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Vicious December? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 #natgas As I thought it can not get more intense, nature tops it again with a December 6 forecast beyond imagination. Barents Sea, Bering Sea, Grönland Street (red circle) are closed and poised to freeze off. Freezing line goes deep into the heart of the South (yellow circle). https://t.co/11bglLzOg7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 16 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: #natgas As I thought it can not get more intense, nature tops it again with a December 6 forecast beyond imagination. Barents Sea, Bering Sea, Grönland Street (red circle) are closed and poised to freeze off. Freezing line goes deep into the heart of the South (yellow circle). https://t.co/11bglLzOg7 1. Speaking of "natgas", which is tagged in both tweets, it is currently actually down 3% vs the Friday close. So, from that market's perspective at least, the intensity of projected December cold for the E half of the US overall vs how it looked Friday at 12Z isn't exciting fwiw. If it were, that market would almost definitely be up now. 2. I'm wary of those tweets that talk about cold in the E US and also tag "natgas". When they do that, they're often trying to get natgas prices to spike up meaning there may be an ulterior motive to such tweets. 3. That all being said, three of the eight third year cold ENSO analogs had quite a cold December in the SE US: 1910, 1917, and 2000. So, that tells me that a cold December in the SE is a decent possibility. Whether or not it is December, I think there's a good chance that one of the three winter months will be solidly cold. Edit: Natural gas, which was down 3% earlier as mentioned, reversed to go higher at 8AM as ensembles turned colder late in the runs at 0Z/6Z. Edit #2: As of 2:20 PM, it is up a whopping 8% (session high) on continued support for a cold December from the 12Z runs! That's quite impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 NAO looking to go negative first week of December. Hopefully PNA continues to trend in a positive direction. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 21, 2022 Author Share Posted November 21, 2022 Fall started right on schedule and I'm looking forward to winter starting on schedule as well This winter should be fun 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 The long range does not look awful at this time. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 The +PNA has the highest correlation to SE US snow overall for any non-seasonal binary index. That's especially the case the deeper in the SE one goes. This includes major NC snowstorms, which I researched earlier. This idea excludes ZR. Based on my own past research, this strong correlation also applies to cold, again especially deeper into the SE. Regarding seasonal, El Niño has the highest correlation for both in the SE. It is no coincidence that a more frequent +PNA is favored by El Niño over other ENSO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Are we still expecting a pattern change in mid December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 21 hours ago, GaWx said: The +PNA has the highest correlation to SE US snow overall for any non-seasonal binary index. That's especially the case the deeper in the SE one goes. This includes major NC snowstorms, which I researched earlier. This idea excludes ZR. Followup with more details for NC major snow based on my own research: When I look at very heavy RDU winter storms (I chose the 21 6”+ for minimum needed, which means mainly or all snow in just about all cases) since 1950, a +PNA was favored a pretty decent amount: +PNA (+0.25+): 11 storms (52%) Neutral PNA (-0.25 to +0.25): 7 storms (33%) -PNA (-0.25-): 3 storms (14%) So, for RDU for heavy snowstorms, there’s a partial correlation with a +PNA. Note that this isn’t for mainly ZR/IP, which keep the total under 6”. These probably prefer a -PNA to neutral PNA. I don’t know for sure though. I think what it boils down to is that classic major SE Miller A snowstorms prefer neutral to +PNA as opposed to CAD based Miller B icestorms, which probably prefer neutral to -PNA. For the +PNA big snows, the mean trough normally needs to be fairly close to the Mississippi River so that it doesn’t suppress the storm track too far south. Here's the PNA and the NAO for the 21 Raleigh 6"+ SN/IP storms since 1950. (I'm calling neutral PNA/NAO to be from +0.25 to -0.25): -1/19/1955: +0.1 neutral PNA; -0.8 -NAO - 12/11/1958: +0.7 +PNA; +0.0 neutral NAO - 3/2-3/1960: -0.8 -PNA; +0.1 neutral NAO - 3/9/1960: -0.5 -PNA; -0.2 neutral NAO - 2/26/1963: +1.3 +PNA; +0.2 neutral NAO - 1/25-7/1966: +0.2 neutral PNA; -1.2 -NAO - 2/9/1967: +0.5 +PNA; +0.5 +NAO - 3/1/1969: +1.3 +PNA; -0.6 -NAO - 1/7-8/1973: +0.3 +PNA; -1.1 -NAO - 2/18-9/1979: -0.0 neutral PNA; -0.1 neutral NAO - 3/1-2/1980: +0.2 neutral PNA; +0.4 +NAO - 3/24/1983: +0.7 +PNA; +0.1 neutral NAO - 2/6/1984: +0.7 +PNA; +1.1 +NAO - 1/7-8/1988: +0.7 +PNA; +0.5 +NAO - 2/17-8/1989: +0.0 neutral PNA; +1.6 +NAO - 1/24-5/2000 (“Crusher”): +0.8 +PNA; -0.5 -NAO - 1/2-3/2002: +1.2 +PNA; -0.5 -NAO - 2/26-7/2004: -0.1 neutral PNA; -0.5 -NAO - 12/25-6/2010: -0.3 -PNA; -0.9 -NAO - 1/17-8/2018: -0.1 neutral PNA; +1.2 +NAO - 12/9-10/2018: +0.9 +PNA; +0.9 +NAO Tallies: 1) PNA: +PNA: 11 (highest +1.3) Neutral PNA: 7 -PNA: 3 (lowest -0.8) **Average PNA for the 21 big RDU snowstorms: +0.4 2) NAO: -NAO: 8 (lowest -1.2) Neutral NAO: 6 +NAO: 7 (highest +1.6) **Average NAO for the 21 big RDU snowstorms: +0.0 Correlation of +PNA and surface temperatures DJF:https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/correlation/corr.test1.pl?iregr=1&var=Air+Temperature&level=Surface&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=&iy[2]=&ilead=0&ilag=0&type=2&timefile=&customtitle=&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&cint=&lowr=&highr=&scale=&switch=0&proj=USA&xlat1=&xlat2=&xlon1=&xlon2=&custproj=Cylindrical+Equidistant&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot ------------------------------- Data sources: 1) RDU 6"+ snowstorms: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah 2) Daily PNA: https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.cdas.z500.19500101_current.csv 3) Daily NAO: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/nao.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Are we still expecting a pattern change in mid December? Just add salt... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now