WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 37 minutes ago, GaWx said: This was by a good margin for that long of a period the smallest % of Octobers without a freeze since records there started. Also, the period 2016-21 had no freeze. This six year no freeze October streak is the longest there on record as it beat the old record of four set twice. Actually, 2016-21 October coldest is 35. The prior longest 35+ streak for October coldest was only three. In addition, all three of 2019-21 had their Oct coldest of 40+. Prior to 2019, there were a mere three Octobers back to 1903 with a coldest of 40+: 2004, 1949, and 1919! This is to me the most telling record. So, to those with more knowledge about KGSO, what is the most likely main reason for this highly anomalous warm streak in October? Is it GW, is it a change of the station, itself, or is it increased heat island effect? After looking at KRDU and KFAY, I think it is some combination as opposed to just from GW. Edit: Prior to 1990, only 33 of 87 (38%) Octobers had no freeze. Since 1990, 21 of 32 (66%) had no freeze! Fascinating stuff. Keep it coming! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 Jaw-dropping stat: DCA has not hit freezing in the month of October since 1992! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 On 10/18/2022 at 10:51 AM, GaWx said: This was by a good margin for that long of a period the smallest % of Octobers without a freeze since records there started. Also, the period 2016-21 had no freeze. This six year no freeze October streak is the longest there on record as it beat the old record of four set twice. Actually, 2016-21 October coldest is 35. The prior longest 35+ streak for October coldest was only three. In addition, all three of 2019-21 had their Oct coldest of 40+. Prior to 2019, there were a mere three Octobers back to 1903 with a coldest of 40+: 2004, 1949, and 1919! This is to me the most telling record. So, to those with more knowledge about KGSO, what is the most likely main reason for this highly anomalous warm streak in October? Is it GW, is it a change of the station, itself, or is it increased heat island effect? After looking at KRDU and KFAY, I think it is some combination as opposed to just from GW. Edit: Prior to 1990, only 33 of 87 (38%) Octobers had no freeze. Since 1990, 21 of 32 (66%) had no freeze! I suspect equal parts GW, and urban hear Island. Check out this time lapse of development over the past 40 years: https://earthengine.google.com/timelapse#v=36.08865,-79.93213,12.106,latLng&t=3.63&ps=50&bt=19840101&et=20201231&startDwell=0&endDwell=0 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 On 10/18/2022 at 5:22 PM, WinstonSalemArlington said: Jaw-dropping stat: DCA has not hit freezing in the month of October since 1992! Even more shocking, average first freeze this century at DCA of November 21st, is only 3 days before that of Tallahassee Fl 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 2 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Even more shocking, average first freeze this century at DCA of November 21st, is only 3 days before that of Tallahassee Fl Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 At the end of the 12Z GFS, first week of November, looks like some good cold building in central and western Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 On 10/18/2022 at 5:22 PM, WinstonSalemArlington said: Jaw-dropping stat: DCA has not hit freezing in the month of October since 1992! Washington Post: "Should Reagan National (DCA) remain D.C.’s official weather station?" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 I keep looking for some hint of some cold coming south through the middle of the month but nothing showing up. There will be some record breaking cold out west next week, especially across the northern Rockies and northern Great Plans. Lower heights out west should relax after next week. NAO looks to stay positive through the middle of the month. After below normal November's for the last few years, maybe we get a below normal December and January instead! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 For a good portion of the SE US, the thread linked below covers the near unanimous model prog for the development of a complex storm system this weekend in the NE Caribbean to SW Atlantic corridor. The models then move it NW toward the SE coast next week underneath a strong E US H5 to surface ridge. It could impact part of the SE as early as Election Day, especially near the coast and with highest chance of having significant impact that early in FL. Thus, inclement weather, which often has a noticeable effect on turnout even with just mundane systems, could turn out to be a major factor for certain SE US races, especially in FL. The system as depicted would very likely be subtropical and/or tropical at various timeframes: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, eyewall said: The greatest Met of all time (DT) would rail you for posting that. Then put his know it all forecast.lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 11 hours ago, eyewall said: And so it begins!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 From NWS Charleston, SC: gales and major coastal flooding possible Mon-Wed for SC/GA and this may occur even if there is no actual STC or TC: TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS ARE RISING AS FULL MOON ON NOVEMBER 8TH APPROACHES. ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANAMOLIES TO INCREASE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AN EVEN STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW COULD PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL ANOMALIES THAT MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAUGE. COASTAL FLOODING COULD BEGIN TODAY ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES AND AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND MUCH OF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TIDE LEVELS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY WILL BE NEEDED. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 The 12Z UKMET, which has a TS hitting Cape Canaveral at 144 moving NW, has at 168 a still well organized low S of Macon, GA, moving N. At that time, it's rain shield expands greatly with moderate to heavy rains all of the way from the NE GOM to NE AL/Atlanta to SW PA, east to DC, and south to most of VA and NC. This is ahead of a rapidly SEward moving strong cold front that extends from Ohio to TX. If it were to play out similarly, this could end up a pretty major event for much of the SE US, including providing much needed generous rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 It’s happening! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 On 11/3/2022 at 8:22 PM, Daniel Boone said: The greatest Met of all time (DT) would rail you for posting that. Then put his know it all forecast.lol How much for South Hill? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 The 12Z Euro takes Invest 98L all of the way up the east coast first as a strong TC in FL followed by a transitioning nor'easter up to the NE US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 4 hours ago, eyewall said: 3 hours ago, GaWx said: The 12Z Euro takes Invest 98L all of the way up the east coast first as a strong TC in FL followed by a transitioning nor'easter up to the NE US. Boy do I love Septanuary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 When was the last time there was coast to coast cold? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Thanks for posting this. Looking forward to the cold shot! It does appear that the La Nina favored SE ridge may hold back subsequent cold shots at least to some extent and thus lead to near normal in the longer range. But that would affect us deep SE folks more than you NC folks, which is common with La Nina. Looking further ahead to December, it is a crap shoot but I'll be looking for one solidly cold month this winter based on the eight third year cold ENSO analogs. Wil it be in December? Stay tuned! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Start the thread... jk jk 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Looks like flow is less amplified after next weekend but wow there is some really cold air building again in central and western Canada the last week of November. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1591222051775598595 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 34 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1591222051775598595 I'm inclined to believe it. The 850s are in the classic place to break hearts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Happy Hour, in November 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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