Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Larry Cosgrove:  “The autumn so far is not following the template that many meteorologists use for a so-called "La Nina Pattern". If you detect some sarcasm in that statement, you are likely right. Following a more familiar "NWP+persistence+climatology" method of forecasting has worked out very well  for nearly two years now, during a period characterized as a "historic -ENSO event". Now, as winter approaches and the 3.4 sector temperatures are rising with a well-defined positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation signature, we have to be looking at the transition to an El Nino episode.

 

All of the numerical models have been showing signs of a developing southern branch wind field, and that type of airstream and cloud banding is in view on water vapor imagery across the Pacific Basin. Note also the amplification and blocking signatures at 500MB, with a cPk vortex reaching into the "Soo Locks" vicinity of Michigan and Ontario at the start of the longer term. Even though some flattening of the upper air flow may take shape in the third week of October across North America, the subtropical jet stream may bring along a stronger shortwave through Texas, Dixie, and the Eastern Seaboard. While not importing any extreme cold, the current pattern of "warm West vs. cold East" will likely be maintained for the monthly average. If not longer.

 

While the western third of the continent is not likely to see much moisture, there will be some possibility that higher dewpoints injected into Mexico from Hurricane Julia may move along the Cordillera into portions of the Intermountain Region. This perpetuates the current "false monsoon" set up by the storms Orlene and Paine. But California, in a downslope wind mode, will continue to have hot, dry conditions with ridging that may enable fire hazards. The presence of a deep sub-Aleutian vortex that occasionally reaches the Gulf of Alaska, but not the West Coast, should continue to pump up the ridge axis more than what is shown by the ensemble members. If the positive height anomalies reach Alaska and the Yukon/Northwest Territories, drainage of even colder air will bank up through the Great Plains and Mississippi River watershed.

 

Bottom line here: the various forecast parameters seem to be pointing in the direction of colder weather, with an active southern/eastern storm track, as we head through the remainder of autumn and into the winter of 2022-23.”

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[Terpeast]

8 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

Nice signal for loading up on cold in the source region.

[Met1985]

52 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Nice signal for loading up on cold in the source region.

Yeah a very nice signal for sure.

[nwohweather]

That cold air is definitely entrenching itself pretty early on this year, interesting to see that battle where really the SE coast is holding on to the heat but the GL/NE/KY/TN are getting pretty down there temp wise

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Looking like first frosts and freezes coming up outside the mountains for Many areas next week 

 

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Check your furnaces

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[buckeyefan1]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

I’m trying to hold out on my yearly model subscription until Nov, but I might have to pull the trigger these next 2 weeks

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Frost coming to Columbia next week

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[GaWx]

 Forecasts are for as cold as upper 30s lows in Statesboro, GA, and low 40s at KSAV 10/19-20. If KSAV gets low 40s, that would be the coldest so early in the season since 2009!

[yotaman]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Forecasts are for as cold as upper 30s lows in Statesboro, GA, and low 40s at KSAV 10/19-20. If KSAV gets low 40s, that would be the coldest so early in the season since 2009!

We would have to drop below 41 to beat 2018. We are expecting upper 30's to around 40 for 2 mornings. We will see.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

And then Indian Summer

 

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

And then Indian Summer

 

Thankfully, that still means we probably don't even break 80 degrees. Then the GEFS brings back below normal temps for the end of October.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[GaWx]

 I wonder if the 12Z Euro storm just off the SE US for the upcoming weekend could be a subtropical storm as it formed earlier near the mid 80s F Gulf Stream before moving NW and has highest winds near 40 knots. Keep in mind that earlier Euro runs going all of the way back 72 hours to the 12Z 10/13 run have been showing something similar forming off of the SE US coast toward this upcoming weekend. This idea has some support from the 12Z ICON and JMA as well as from ~20% of the 12Z EPS members.

 
Edit: I forgot to mention that the 12Z UKMET also has something form early this upcoming weekend in the Bahamas that isn't classified as tropical and thus is probably ST. Also, the 18Z ICON 120 is similar to the 12Z 126 and thus implies it has it, too.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Very dry look going forward for the southeast. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[wncsnow]

Not sure if there's any correlation but 2006 and 2000/01 and 2001/02 were crappy winters in the foothills. There were some big events down east though.  

 

2006 was awful and the others only had a small event or 2. 

[olafminesaw]

Going back to 1990, 11 years had October freezes in Greensboro. Of those years, one had December snow, more than a trace (9%), (1" in 1993). 10 years out of 31 had snow more than a trace overall (32%) so years without an October freeze had snowfall 41% of the time and with a freeze 9% of the time. A rather small sample size, but an interesting inverse correlation.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Going back to 1990, 11 years had October freezes in Greensboro. Of those years, one had December snow, more than a trace (9%), (1" in 1993). 10 years out of 31 had snow more than a trace overall (32%) so years without an October freeze had snowfall 41% of the time and with a freeze 9% of the time. A rather small sample size, but an interesting inverse correlation.

Only 11 years with October freezes in that period? That’s shocking.

[wncsnow]

Yea I have always felt that a freak cold snap and or snow in October and November usually meant little to no snow the rest of the winter.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Only 11 years with October freezes in that period? That’s shocking.

  This was by a good margin for that long of a period the smallest % of Octobers without a freeze since records there started. Also, the period 2016-21 had no freeze. This six year no freeze October streak is the longest there on record as it beat the old record of four set twice. Actually, 2016-21 October coldest is 35. The prior longest 35+ streak for October coldest was only three.

 In addition, all three of 2019-21 had their Oct coldest of 40+. Prior to 2019, there were a mere three Octobers back to 1903 with a coldest of 40+: 2004, 1949, and 1919! This is to me the most telling record.

 So, to those with more knowledge about KGSO, what is the most likely main reason for this highly anomalous warm streak in October? Is it GW, is it a change of the station, itself, or is it increased heat island effect? After looking at KRDU and KFAY, I think it is some combination as opposed to just from GW.

Edit: Prior to 1990, only 33 of 87 (38%) Octobers had no freeze. Since 1990, 21 of 32 (66%) had no freeze!