NorthHillsWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Euro ensemble mean is a beaut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Euro ensemble mean is a beaut North of the OP, but not terrible either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: North of the OP, but not terrible either I didn’t look at the snowfall map, I just looked at the precip output but still good at this range, not a beaut like I first said haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Cold chasing moisture always works out 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Cold chasing moisture always works out That's not necessarily the case here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: That's not necessarily the case here.... It is for most of NC. You’re in a better spot per that run. Only saving grace with this depiction is the amount of qpf, you can afford to burn through a lot of it as rain and still have enough to fall as snow for good accumulation. Those details will iron themselves out over the week. A storm is there and there are ways it snows on NC and VA with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Ensemble mean qpf was over 0.50” for a lot of North Carolina. That’s significant at this range. Probably our juiciest look this entire season 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Awesome, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Thing of beauty though temps are very marginal (850’s and Surface) but that’s also how we rip big dendrites and rates in the south Gotta ride the line lol i still feel better that EURO/UKIE are on it and not just the GFS…. The fact they ALL have the storm only happened once in January that was the first storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Gotta ride the line lol i still feel better that EURO/UKIE are on it and not just the GFS…. The fact they ALL have the storm only happened once in January that was the first storm Yep, this immediately shot up to a bonafide threat to me when all 3 had it. Long way out obviously but should be an interesting week at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Yep, this immediately shot up to a bonafide threat to me when all 3 had it. Long way out obviously but should be an interesting week at least That’s all I want…. One last Thing to track lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 18z GFS with a very tight gradient of snow in SW VA And Central VA. This run was noticeably warmer than 12z.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 16 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z GFS with a very tight gradient of snow in SW VA And Central VA. This run was noticeably warmer than 12z.... Brought the LP further north, inland over SENC. Storm still there obviously and overall very similar to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 DC folks probably happy with that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: DC folks probably happy with that run Yeah I'd favor DC here. Odds of being jackpot zone Whiff/too warm 25% NC/Southern VA 20% DC 40% NYC 15% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Still some hope for flakes, but the warm/whiff scenario is looking way more likely with the overnight runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Looks like the sun-angle data finally got ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Looks like the sun-angle data finally got ingested. Right, it's tough to get good sampling of the sun being 27 million degrees and all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Right, it's tough to get good sampling of the sun being 27 million degrees and all Cloudy days or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Too progressive and leaves the energy behind. Too much ridging out West. Need more amplitude with the wave and for everything to slow down enough to get separation from the wave before it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Welcome to the theme of this winter. Spring should arrive in full force soon, the models were showing lows in the teens early next week now it may not even get below 30. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 The extreme progressive pattern of 2022 continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Well that threat left in a hurry lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 I think we can officially declare winter over after Sunday. No signs of cold before the 10th, at which point we enter really rare territory for snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Spring arrives in 6 days folks. Get your gardening supplies dusted off and the lawn mowers tuned up. I’ve got trees blooming all over here in Raleigh. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Yeah it was over after the last failed event. The Triangle got shafted compared to surrounding areas and that won't be made up for this go around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 What had at a minimum looked like a wet week certainly has dried up for central-eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: What had at a minimum looked like a wet week certainly has dried up for central-eastern NC yeah I was hoping for a good soaking to get some oyster mushrooms growing. They are very tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Coming out of January I was very ready to give this winter a solid B grade but while January was a B+, A- in my opinion December and February have been a F and a D respectively. Overall I’d have to say that gives this winter a C- or just above passing. Like others have said, it’s over. The progressive nightmare isn’t going away due to the Atlantic even with a friendly Pacific since December and we’re just getting warmer. Onto spring and severe tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 41 minutes ago, eyewall said: yeah I was hoping for a good soaking to get some oyster mushrooms growing. They are very tasty I think we’re far from oyster mushrooms here! Sitting at a paltry 1.26” after todays 0.03” gulley washer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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